ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Aric Dunn]

still averaging nnw..

ok off to bed be back tomorrow

[Macrocane]

It would be interesting to see how the media will manage this situation when Ida is on the gulf.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080638
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 25 20091108
063030 1859N 08401W 7264 02809 0069 +100 +100 208028 030 026 002 00
063100 1901N 08401W 7083 03020 0061 +094 +094 203027 028 024 003 00
063130 1903N 08401W 6974 03154 0065 +086 +086 204027 028 025 002 00
063200 1905N 08402W 6970 03152 0060 +086 +086 204029 029 023 002 00
063230 1907N 08402W 6966 03160 0047 +098 +089 206029 029 025 002 00
063300 1909N 08403W 6967 03156 0049 +095 +085 204029 030 023 003 00
063330 1911N 08403W 6967 03155 0047 +098 +084 203028 028 026 002 00
063400 1913N 08404W 6966 03158 0049 +096 +083 202028 028 026 002 00
063430 1915N 08404W 6967 03155 0048 +098 +082 202029 029 027 001 00
063500 1917N 08404W 6966 03159 0050 +096 +081 199029 029 026 003 00
063530 1919N 08405W 6966 03157 0050 +095 +080 203031 032 026 003 00
063600 1921N 08405W 6966 03158 0044 +099 +079 202032 032 028 002 00
063630 1923N 08406W 6969 03153 0046 +097 +079 200033 033 028 003 00
063700 1925N 08406W 6966 03159 0048 +095 +078 203032 032 030 003 00
063730 1927N 08407W 6967 03156 0047 +095 +077 203033 033 029 003 00
063800 1929N 08407W 6967 03154 0050 +095 +077 201032 033 029 003 00
063830 1931N 08408W 6967 03155 0049 +095 +076 198031 032 030 005 00
063900 1933N 08408W 6967 03155 0048 +094 +075 196033 033 032 006 00
063930 1935N 08408W 6968 03151 0054 +089 +071 193033 034 032 007 00
064000 1937N 08409W 6968 03147 0057 +085 +067 190034 035 033 007 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

NW eyewall exploding on radar!!
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70

[Aric Dunn]

oh and big burst about to start its showing up on radar .. sat will follow..

[Thunder44]

000
URNT12 KNHC 080631
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/05:50:20Z
B. 20 deg 06 min N
085 deg 21 min W
C. 850 mb 1294 m
D. 82 kt
E. 008 deg 11 nm
F. 082 deg 96 kt
G. 005 deg 11 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 14 C / 1537 m
J. 26 C / 1516 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0311A IDA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 96 KT N QUAD 05:46:00Z
SPIRAL BAND THRU N QUADS
;

[LaBreeze]

If this hard left continues it will go over Cancun. If it is just a jog it should stair step north soon.


I've seen this before. Bumps in the transition zone between Caribbean tropical airmass and Gulf.

And what does this "bumping" normally do to storms?

[attallaman]

Cat 2 at landfall it appears on this run from the GFDL

Was George a CAT 2 when it made landfall near here in 1998?

Yes, Georges was a cat 2 one it made landfall in Mississippi

I remember Georges well, my mother was a patient in a hospital located near the beach here and a pecan tree in our back yard almost hit the house that year, I wasn't here for Katrina but I was about 100 miles north of here riding it out and it got pretty rough 100 miles north of here.

[Sanibel]

If the eye is contracting and the eyewall is bursting that isn't good for Cancun. They better hope it turns back onto track.


Bump would just be a stall or long jog and resumption on track and into the steering feature NHC progged.

[HURAKAN]

[attallaman]

To the untrained weather eye what am I looking at?

[deltadog03]

EURO, on this run, is showing a 997mb IDA landfalling near new orleans. Given how the globals don't have a very high resolution with hurricanes, it will prolly be closer to what the hwrf and gfdl are showing. (near 975mb)

[Macrocane]

Ok it's very late and I have to sleep, let's see what surprises will later today bring.

[attallaman]

EURO, on this run, is showing a 997mb IDA landfalling near new orleans. Given how the globals don't have a very high resolution with hurricanes, it will prolly be closer to what the hwrf and gfdl are showing. (near 975mb)

Possible landfall in my area or well E of here in FL?

[LaBreeze]

and what are the hwrf and gfdl showing?

[deltadog03]

gfdl and hwrf are showing around 80-90mph SFC winds and 975mb pressure

[Evil Jeremy]

Heading back towards the center, winds are increasing

000
URNT15 KNHC 080648
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 26 20091108
064030 1939N 08409W 6966 03152 0058 +085 +062 187037 037 033 007 00
064100 1941N 08410W 6967 03148 0055 +087 +058 188038 038 034 007 00
064130 1943N 08410W 6966 03149 0048 +093 +054 189040 040 034 006 00
064200 1945N 08411W 6967 03150 0050 +093 +052 189039 040 034 004 00
064230 1947N 08411W 6969 03147 0058 +086 +051 189037 038 034 005 00
064300 1949N 08412W 6967 03146 0058 +084 +052 184035 036 034 003 00
064330 1951N 08412W 6967 03149 0063 +080 +053 183035 035 033 005 00
064400 1953N 08412W 6967 03147 0065 +080 +053 184035 035 034 004 00
064430 1955N 08413W 6967 03147 0059 +084 +052 189035 035 035 004 00
064500 1957N 08413W 6967 03146 0063 +080 +051 185035 035 034 005 00
064530 1959N 08414W 6967 03148 0063 +080 +052 180035 035 038 003 00
064600 2001N 08414W 6968 03145 0062 +080 +052 174035 036 038 003 00
064630 2003N 08415W 6966 03147 0060 +080 +050 173037 038 035 002 00
064700 2005N 08415W 6966 03150 0057 +082 +049 172038 038 035 003 00
064730 2007N 08416W 6969 03145 0056 +085 +048 168038 039 038 002 00
064800 2009N 08416W 6967 03148 0052 +087 +047 163040 040 040 003 00
064830 2011N 08417W 6967 03148 0050 +089 +048 162040 041 041 003 00
064900 2013N 08417W 6969 03139 0061 +079 +049 160043 046 045 007 00
064930 2015N 08418W 6968 03145 0054 +085 +049 161045 046 044 009 00
065000 2018N 08418W 6967 03142 0069 +072 +048 165046 048 043 011 00
$$
;

[Thunder44]

These were some winds recorded in the Dropsonde in the NW Quad. Note the 89kts at the surface:


Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
989mb (Surface)
40° (from the NE)
89 knots (102 mph)
984mb
45° (from the NE)
93 knots (107 mph)
976mb
35° (from the NE)
90 knots (104 mph)
967mb
40° (from the NE)
95 knots (109 mph)
959mb
45° (from the NE)
93 knots (107 mph)
951mb
50° (from the NE)
101 knots (116 mph)
939mb
55° (from the NE)
95 knots (109 mph)
931mb
55° (from the NE)
102 knots (117 mph)
905mb
60° (from the ENE)
108 knots (124 mph)
899mb
60° (from the ENE)
113 knots (130 mph)
883mb
75° (from the ENE)
105 knots (121 mph)
878mb
75° (from the ENE)
97 knots (112 mph)
873mb
70° (from the ENE)
94 knots (108 mph)
858mb
80° (from the E)
98 knots (113 mph)
843mb
85° (from the E)
83 knots (96 mph)

[attallaman]

Since it's almost 1:00 am here and I'm definitely not sleepy are there any new model runs coming out soon? When's the next advisory coming out from the NHC?

[Thunder44]

Dropsonde in NW Quad recorded 89kt winds at the surface.