ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[deltadog03]

Thanks for the radar images guys!!!! BTW, CDO is cooling once again, as noted above me, I think this has 1 last really good shot to intensify.

[lonelymike]

I dunno if I would be so quick to trash wxman57 so fast. He has a background as a tropical forecaster vs2 tv mets and a bunch of novices. He also has to make a forecast for a large number of his clients. He's always made good forecasts in the past. I guess we'll see in the end who is right.

[cycloneye]

OB 4

URNT15 KNHC 081511
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 04 20091108
150330 2932N 08916W 4484 06672 0305 -133 -133 157015 016 999 999 03
150400 2930N 08916W 4458 06721 0310 -138 -138 159016 017 999 999 03
150430 2928N 08915W 4433 06763 0312 -140 -140 156016 017 999 999 03
150500 2927N 08915W 4412 06798 0314 -144 -144 153015 016 999 999 03
150530 2925N 08915W 4389 06836 0315 -145 -145 151015 015 999 999 03
150600 2923N 08915W 4358 06891 0318 -146 -146 146018 019 999 999 03
150630 2921N 08915W 4343 06918 0321 -146 -146 145017 018 999 999 03
150700 2919N 08915W 4328 06945 0322 -149 -149 147015 016 999 999 03
150730 2917N 08915W 4313 06971 0323 -150 -150 152012 013 999 999 03
150800 2915N 08915W 4298 06997 0324 -154 -154 154012 012 999 999 03
150830 2913N 08915W 4267 07045 0323 -158 -158 152011 011 999 999 03
150900 2911N 08915W 4212 07145 0327 -168 -168 166010 010 999 999 05
150930 2909N 08915W 4144 07264 0331 -172 -172 187015 016 999 999 05
151000 2907N 08914W 4093 07360 0340 -178 +999 194014 015 999 999 05
151030 2905N 08914W 4094 07357 0339 -179 -179 196016 016 999 999 03
151100 2903N 08914W 4097 07350 0337 -180 -180 199016 018 999 999 03
151130 2901N 08914W 4095 07354 0337 -178 -178 199018 018 999 999 03
151200 2858N 08914W 4097 07351 0337 -173 -179 200019 021 999 999 03
151230 2856N 08914W 4098 07349 0337 -172 -186 200019 020 999 999 03
151300 2854N 08914W 4098 07349 0337 -172 -193 199020 020 999 999 03

[jinftl]

Not necessarily, if the NHC believes that Ida will be extratropical by the time she reaches points east of the hurricane watch area, they already stated earlier that they will defer to local NWS Offices to issues appropriate wind advisories, coastal flood warnings, etc.

There is a better chance Ida could still be tropical in nature when she nears (or moves inland over) Louisiana...a full 6-12 hours before nearing the Fl panhandle.


From the 10am NHC Discussion:

While it is likely that Ida will lose tropical cyclone
characteristics before reaching the northern Gulf Coast...it is
possible that tropical storm- or hurricane-force winds could reach
portions of the coast before extratropical transition is complete.
Thus...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the
northern Gulf Coast at this time. Other potential hazards
associated with Ida are...for now...being handled by local National
Weather Service offices along the Gulf Coast in their product suite
with marine and coastal flood watches...warnings...and advisories.

Hmmm...seems odd no tropical storm watches for coastal AL and panhandle of FL. This is confusing from the NHC. I understand that its going to transition to ET but the effects will still be the same as a tropical storm. Heck, NHC has the storm at 60 mph over coastal sections of the FL panhandle as a ET storm. Here's a classic case of bureaucratic definitions getting in the way of common sense.

I am sure that watches and warnings will expand eastward later today.

It is all about timing...winds will get to grand isle 6 hours before AL...so six hours later the watches go up...

[deltadog03]

I don't think anyone trashed Wxman....I certainly didn't see that. I for one didn't and don't think anyone is. We can ALL have different opinions.

[cycloneye]

The discussion came out very late.

HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THE LAST PASS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
1100 UTC SHOWED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND AN ELLIPTICAL EYE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA AND MEXICO SINCE THAT
TIME SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE STRUCTURE. BASED ON
THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 77 KT FROM TAFB
AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9. IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST
THE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO. THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...
ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION...WITH THE CENTER OF IDA REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN
36-48 HR. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 48 HR...ALTHOUGH IT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND ITS
COLLEAGUES. THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION ALSO RESULTS IN A MORE
NORTHERLY POSITION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK...SO
THE 72-96 HR POSITIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AS WELL.

SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR
MASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IS
LIKELY TO BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HR. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE FORECASTS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH 48 HR...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH THAT TIME.
IN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS
FORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST. IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT
ABSORBS IDA. AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST USES THE SCENARIO THAT
THIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.

WHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT IDA WILL LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM- OR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE COAST BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.
THUS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE...FOR NOW...BEING HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE
WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 21.2N 86.0W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W 85 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W 85 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
96HR VT 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

[robbielyn]

Well again, tampa shield is up. At least it could act like it was coming here a while longer. I get so bored when I know there's no chance of anything exciting. I'd move back to the panhandle where all the action mostly is however, but my ex is there and there's no money to be made. Oh well it was fun for a little while anyways. BTW why isn't it making the ne turn til late if at all thought that trough would push it east.

[cycloneye]

[MGC]

Well, nothing like waking up to a hurricane watch in November.....I'm speechless....MGC

[cycloneye]

OB 5

URNT15 KNHC 081521
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 05 20091108
151330 2851N 08914W 4098 07349 0337 -175 -199 202020 020 999 999 03
151400 2849N 08914W 4098 07349 0337 -175 -203 203018 018 999 999 03
151430 2846N 08914W 4098 07348 0336 -172 -208 203018 019 999 999 03
151500 2844N 08913W 4097 07350 0337 -173 -212 201017 017 999 999 03
151530 2842N 08913W 4098 07349 0337 -174 -215 202018 018 999 999 03
151600 2839N 08913W 4098 07349 0338 -175 -217 199019 019 999 999 03
151630 2837N 08913W 4094 07356 0337 -179 -219 198020 021 999 999 03
151700 2835N 08913W 4095 07352 0336 -180 -220 199019 020 999 999 03
151730 2832N 08913W 4101 07344 0335 -180 -222 200020 021 999 999 03
151800 2830N 08913W 4101 07341 0335 -175 -224 201021 022 999 999 03
151830 2827N 08913W 4094 07355 0336 -172 -225 205024 025 999 999 03
151900 2825N 08913W 4095 07353 0336 -168 -225 208023 023 999 999 03
151930 2823N 08913W 4102 07342 0337 -170 -225 206022 023 999 999 03
152000 2820N 08912W 4096 07352 0336 -175 -225 207019 020 999 999 03
152030 2818N 08912W 4097 07351 0336 -170 -225 207021 022 999 999 03
152100 2816N 08912W 4097 07351 0336 -169 -225 203024 025 999 999 03
152130 2813N 08911W 4095 07353 0337 -166 -224 202025 025 999 999 03
152200 2811N 08910W 4098 07348 0337 -166 -224 204023 023 999 999 03
152230 2809N 08909W 4102 07344 0338 -166 -224 202024 024 999 999 03
152300 2807N 08908W 4097 07351 0337 -167 -223 203026 026 999 999 03
$$

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I dunno if I would be so quick to trash wxman57 so fast. He has a background as a tropical forecaster vs2 tv mets and a bunch of novices. He also has to make a forecast for a large number of his clients. He's always made good forecasts in the past. I guess we'll see in the end who is right.

yeah no one trashed him. People can disagree with him and that is not trashing him.

[deltadog03]

I personally think that IDA is strengthening again.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters latest discussion.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:21 PM GMT on November 08, 2009

Hurricane Ida is threading the gap between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane, and now appears poised to bring a punishing combination of high tides and heavy rain Monday night and Tuesday morning to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Ida is a compact hurricane, and radar imagery out of Cancun (Figure 1) reveals a tight inner core, with only limited rain bands affecting Mexico and western Cuba as the storm shoots through the Yucatan Channel. Top winds at Cancun, Mexico this morning have only been 15 mph, despite the fact that Ida is passing just 60 miles east of the city. Infrared and visible satellite loops show little change to Ida's heavy thunderstorm over the past six hours, and the hurricane appears to have changed little since the last Hurricane Hunter aircraft left at 6:30 am. A new Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for 1 pm EST this afternoon.

Wind shear has increased over the storm since yesterday, and is now a high 20 - 25 knots. However, the storm is over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic, with SSTs at 29°C, and the total ocean heat content a very high 100 kJ/cm^2.

The forecast for Ida

The high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots currently affecting Ida is forecast to persist at that level until Monday night. Some slow intensification is still possible while Ida remains over the exceptionally warm water of the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico, through tonight (Figure 2). Late tonight, Ida will be crossing over waters of 26°C, which is barely enough to support a hurricane. With shear still expected to be at 20 -25 knots, I expect weakening to begin early Monday morning and accelerate on Monday afternoon. At that time, Ida will encounter 40 knots of wind shear associated with a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico, and begin transitioning to an extratropical storm. Exactly how strong Ida will be when it reaches the coast early Tuesday morning--and indeed if Ida even does reach the coast--is a forecast with high uncertainty. The computer models have a tough time forecasting the evolution of a tropical cyclone into an extratropical cyclone, and the models are all over the place on what will happen. Most of the models foresee a landfall near 1 am EST Tuesday between Mississippi and Pensacola, Florida, then a path northeastward over the Southeast U.S. However, Ida could come to halt before reaching the coast and turn west towards Tampa (the UKMET model's forecast), or turn south back over the Gulf of Mexico (the NOGAPS model's forecast). In any case, storm surge and heavy rain appear to be the main hazards from Ida. The GFDL model (Figure 3) is forecasting rain amounts of 4 - 8 inches for a large swath of the Gulf Coast, and there is a risk of tornadoes if the warm air from the core of Ida pushes ashore.

Storm surge is the other concern. With a strong high pressure system anchored voer the U.S. today, the pressure difference between this high and Ida is creating a strong pressure gradient that will drive tides 3 - 5 feet above normal from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle tonight. As Ida approaches on Monday, an additional rise in water of another two feet is possible, and a large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time. With high winds of 45 - 55 mph likely to build Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, significant coastal erosion event is shaping up. A particular concern is the low-lying, heavily developed western end of Alabama's Dauphin Island, where storm surges from four hurricanes over the past fifteen years have caused heavy damage.

[Sanibel]

Nice sunny warm morning like just about every morning here in south Florida paradise. Fresh coffee and sunshine and OJ.


If I were to "eye" this one I would go with Ida has peaked and should maintain 90mph. NHC disagrees and posts increase to 100mph over the next 24 hours. Could be right.


This is a storm that would have gone big time in September but now it is November and conditions are too weak/cool to support strong category intensity. So you are seeing the compromise result which makes perfect sense.


I'll gamble on Ida having peaked because of the Wilma factor of not being able to rebound too greatly from a slight stalling in the Channel. I could be wrong with this new better round eye on radar though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dionne]

Well, nothing like waking up to a hurricane watch in November.....I'm speechless....MGC

And a flood warning.....

[harmclan]

No one trashed wxman that I see. Jconor provided his own analysis on the short term intensification. The NHC for one has changed their opinions on intensity and forecast track, so why can't 2 meteorologists have differential opinions?

[cycloneye]

RECCO OBSERVATION 01

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 15:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 01


Observation Time: Sunday, 15:22Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 28.2N 89.2W
Location: 133 miles (214 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,010 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 200° at 23 knots (From the SSW at ~ 26.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -17°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -22°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,530 geopotential meters

[cpdaman]

I just Do not see how such a nice sized west-central Gulf low moving NE would not tear IDA apart in the next 24-30 hours....unless she can make landfall before then or shoot off to the NE at accelerating speeds...in other words i see no way this reaches gulf coast as a cane

[Dean4Storms]

I think this latest advisory is wise, there remains a good possibility that hurricane force winds at least in gusts could occur right along the immediate coast.