ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Hyperstorm]

All signs are pointing out to an explosive strengthening phase at this time. I think the system is already a category 2 hurricane and will probably approach category 3 intensity, against all forecasts. You can see the "fist" as it's curling around what looks like an eye popping out on satellite imagery.

Very, VERY interesting for November...

[psyclone]

with respect to hurricane watches, i suspect the NHC decision to stop them at the ms/al border is a timing issue. they do this alot. a prominent example i can think of was katrina when the initial watches just included LA when we all knew MS was gonna be pounded. 6 hours later (i believe) they were extended east. i expect the same to happen this time although i will be stunned if anyone actually experiences bonafide hurricane conditions. I'm just glad to be exempt as usual.

[mzcocoapuf]

THE NEWS IN OUR AREA IS THAT IT WILL REACH LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE IM IN FLA THHE STORM IS HITTIN LA EXPECTED CAT 1 IS THAT GOOD OR BAD FOR THEM CONSIDERING THEY ARE BELOW SEA LEVEL

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure=9748

[SunnyThoughts]

I suppose watches/warnings will go up later today for areas EAST of the areas already under the cane watch. What a wet and windy time were going to have along the coast.

[Ivanhater]

SFMR 100 mph winds..

17:12:30Z
21.700N 86.117W
2,950 meters(~ 9,678 feet)
985.9 mb(~ 29.11 inHg)
87 knots*(~ 100.0 mph*)
23 mm/hr*(~ 0.91 in/hr*)

They have been flagged as being inaccurate. The rain rate has also.

Ok thanks. At the rate it is intensifying, this will easily reach 100mph soon imo

[CrazyC83]

Pressure down to 975mb, but the winds still only support 80 kt. The highest unflagged SFMR was 78 kt, and FL winds translate to 81 kt at the surface.

[Sanibel]

If you put the Cancun radar on fast you can see Ida did intensification wobbles on its pass through the Channel. There's too many variables to guess what this means if anything. It could be 95mph now or it could be maintaining at a lower intensity. The eye is healthy and a black IR band appeared.

Just caught up. Yeah if it pops an eye it should be increasing up to 100mph.

[HURAKAN]

[IvanSurvivor]

Hmm the 12z GFS is much more intense than previous runs

What strength is that?

[Hyperstorm]

Pressure down to 975mb, but the winds still only support 80 kt. The highest unflagged SFMR was 78 kt, and FL winds translate to 81 kt at the surface.

Since it appears to be dropping pressure fairly rapidly right now, the winds will take a time to catch up. Over the next two hours, you should see winds in excess of 96 mph, making this a category 2 hurricane. If Ida is not a category 2 hurricane by the 1 pm ET advisory, I would expect a special advisory or update shortly thereafter reflecting the upgrade.

In any case, people along the northern Gulf Coast in and near the watch area to start making preparations now for a potential hurricane to reach your coastline...

[Macrocane]

Maybe now just the pressure is deepening but later it will translate into stronger winds, that usually occurs right?

[cycloneye]

Maybe now just the pressure is deepening but later it will translate into stronger winds, that usually occurs right?

That right.Winds will catch up to the lower pressure.

[mzcocoapuf]

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE WIND SHEAR THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO TEAR THIS SYSTEM APART?

[HURAKAN]

RECON plot + Cancun Radar

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[PTPatrick]

I would beg to differ about nobody on the coast recieving "bonafide" hurricane conditions. The trends have been towards a more and more closed system at landfall, except for GFS. And to be honest, even an "extratropical" system can produce well in the hurricane force wind range. Combine that with the fact that there will be some squeeze play going on with the High to north, and you have got a very long period of TS winds that will likely effect most of the area, with yes, a fairly brief period of likely hurricane force winds somewhere near the landfall.

[Pearl River]

mzcocapuf
THE NEWS IN OUR AREA IS THAT IT WILL REACH LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE IM IN FLA THHE STORM IS HITTIN LA EXPECTED CAT 1 IS THAT GOOD OR BAD FOR THEM CONSIDERING THEY ARE BELOW SEA LEVEL

Believe it or not, not all of LA or New Orleans is below sea level....in fact, only a small portion of NOLA is below sea level. The biggest problem with LA is coastal erosion.

[Sabanic]

Want to start making some preparations, but in the last few years we seem to always be spared the brunt of every storm so I may wait until tomorrow to see how things are looking

[robbielyn]

Isnt that massive tail to Ida's east going to create rain for Florida as Ida heads north?

No because that storm is continuing to go nnw so we wont get the storm winds just the pressure gradient winds thats it sorry to disappoint