ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[tolakram]

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE WIND SHEAR THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO TEAR THIS SYSTEM APART?

Watch your caps lock please. Forecasting Hurricanes is still tricky business.

[Sanibel]

Eye not really emerging (yet):

[cycloneye]

Isnt that massive tail to Ida's east going to create rain for Florida as Ida heads north?

No because that storm is continuing to go nnw so we wont get the storm winds just the pressure gradient winds thats it sorry to disappoint

Why to dissapoint?

[Javlin]

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE WIND SHEAR THAT WAS SUPPOSE TO TEAR THIS SYSTEM APART?

I think it might have something to do do with the low 300miles to the NW is being a blocker.

[cycloneye]

mzcocoapu,please dont post in caps.

[tolakram]

High Speed visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

Another round of explosive growth underway.

[Evil Jeremy]

Isnt that massive tail to Ida's east going to create rain for Florida as Ida heads north?

No because that storm is continuing to go nnw so we wont get the storm winds just the pressure gradient winds thats it sorry to disappoint

Disappoint? I don't want a hurricane or TS winds. But the rain from that tail, it extends behind the storm far. Wouldn't that clobber us?

[Sanibel]

If you look at the dry slot tucked around Ida's south quadrant that is less favorable air pulled in around on the shear side. That scenario generally doesn't bode well for Gulf storms. Especially those with small cores.

[robbielyn]

Isnt that massive tail to Ida's east going to create rain for Florida as Ida heads north?

No because that storm is continuing to go nnw so we wont get the storm winds just the pressure gradient winds thats it sorry to disappoint

Why to dissapoint?

Because we haven't had any excitement all year. I want to feel what I felt in 2004 with frances and jean. I was involved with kate and jeanne and francis just a little excitement not the full blown stuff.

[HURAKAN]

292
URNT12 KNHC 081732
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/17:14:10Z
B. 21 deg 37 min N
086 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2927 m
D. 85 kt
E. 325 deg 5 nm
F. 073 deg 90 kt
G. 327 deg 8 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 7 C / 3058 m
J. 18 C / 3040 m
K. 4 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. E06/20/16
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NW QUAD 17:11:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 85 KT SE QUAD 17:18:00Z
;

[HURAKAN]

292
URNT12 KNHC 081732
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/17:14:10Z
B. 21 deg 37 min N
086 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2927 m
D. 85 kt
E. 325 deg 5 nm
F. 073 deg 90 kt
G. 327 deg 8 nm
H. 978 mb
I. 7 C / 3058 m
J. 18 C / 3040 m
K. 4 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. E06/20/16
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NW QUAD 17:11:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 85 KT SE QUAD 17:18:00Z
;

[PTPatrick]

GFDL at 12 z now cat 3 in gulf...landfall Dauphin Island at CAt2 moving NNE into Baldwin county. Pressue at landfall 968!

Sorry guys...accidently put that here when I meant to post in the models thread. Oh well, now I cant delete it.

[HURAKAN]

515
URNT15 KNHC 081731
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 18 20091108
172330 2116N 08539W 6954 03130 0014 +090 +046 216060 061 048 000 00
172400 2115N 08538W 6961 03127 0022 +086 +045 218058 059 047 000 00
172430 2113N 08536W 6959 03130 0023 +088 +042 219056 057 047 000 03
172500 2112N 08535W 6960 03132 0013 +100 +040 219054 055 046 001 00
172530 2111N 08534W 6958 03138 0016 +100 +038 222053 054 044 001 00
172600 2109N 08532W 6961 03138 0017 +103 +038 223052 053 042 000 00
172630 2108N 08531W 6961 03141 0024 +099 +038 222051 052 041 000 00
172700 2107N 08529W 6961 03144 0031 +095 +039 222050 052 041 001 00
172730 2105N 08528W 6961 03145 0035 +094 +040 219052 053 039 000 00
172800 2104N 08527W 6963 03146 0041 +090 +040 220050 050 039 000 03
172830 2102N 08526W 6962 03146 0047 +087 +040 222049 050 038 000 00
172900 2101N 08525W 6963 03146 0044 +091 +038 218050 051 036 001 03
172930 2059N 08524W 6956 03158 0049 +089 +037 217048 049 038 002 00
173000 2058N 08523W 6961 03153 0056 +084 +037 218045 046 037 002 03
173030 2056N 08521W 6963 03152 0058 +086 +036 216045 046 039 002 00
173100 2055N 08520W 6957 03159 0056 +087 +036 217041 042 041 002 00
173130 2054N 08518W 6963 03154 0055 +088 +036 222044 046 038 004 03
173200 2053N 08516W 6957 03160 0057 +087 +036 222045 046 036 004 00
173230 2052N 08514W 6961 03158 0056 +089 +035 217042 045 035 001 00
173300 2050N 08513W 6957 03164 0058 +089 +035 221041 042 036 001 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[PTPatrick]

GFDL at 12 z now cat 3 in gulf...landfall Dauphin Island at CAt2 moving NNE into Baldwin county. Pressue at landfall 968!


It peaks the storm at 24 hrs at 967 mb and 125 mph in the south central gulf. Then slow weakening til landfall, Landfall wind is around 100 mph on the 12 z

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

as far as Ida's true strength recon still needs to go through the right front quad which is normally the strongest I believe. If I remember correct from last night's flight the quad they just went through only had winds in the 60kt range.

[robbielyn]

Isnt that massive tail to Ida's east going to create rain for Florida as Ida heads north?

No because that storm is continuing to go nnw so we wont get the storm winds just the pressure gradient winds thats it sorry to disappoint

Disappoint? I don't want a hurricane or TS winds. But the rain from that tail, it extends behind the storm far. Wouldn't that clobber us?

No it won't clobber us. Not if it stays tropical. Will we get the beneficial rains you want sure but its headed away from us there are no winds there from the actual storm. This is going to be n gulf coast event. Seen it way too many times before.

[Javlin]

The trends have been towards a more and more closed system at landfall, except for GFS

The latest run PTtracker of the GFS over at the model thread has even climbed on board.

[mzcocoapuf]

OH OK IM A DISASTER HOUSING INSPECTOR I WAS JUST TRYING TO SEE IF I NEED TO BE PACKING MY BAGS LOL

[Sanibel]

You can see VDM maintains at 90KT FL. Per all the reasons I described before.