ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[srainhoutx]

looks like a real squeeze play going on if you look at the water vapor loop. Interesting

Agree Rainband. We appear to have some baroclinic enhancement from the W GOM low.

Edit/Spelling

[deltadog03]

Looks like GFDL and HWRF on the 12z runs are making landfall around 90-95 mph.

[tallywx]

all I have to say is...if this is all the awareness it takes to be a disaster housing inspector, please sign me up!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[PTPatrick]

This baroclinic enhancment stuff is why I am not sure what to think about this system. This is not a typical situation in the gulf. Seems like a sinch with the squeeze play that the wind will likely cause power outage over the area. My bigger concern is surge, and not knowing where the storm will make landfall, how long the wind direction will be perp to the coast etc.

Seems like Kate 1985 is about the closest analong to this time of year, and she also got picked up by a front. The result was a 10 ft surge and extensive tree damage to the big bend and especially tallahassee (Elena had done some pruning closer to the coast around Apalachicola that year).

[deltadog03]

Looks like a little dry air got in there, but that is quickly being pushed out right now. This is looking a bit better. *not that it was weakening*, but there was some drier air around.

[HURAKAN]

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 081811
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 22 20091108
180330 2113N 08528W 6959 03143 0022 +100 +041 209046 046 041 000 00
180400 2114N 08530W 6958 03142 0009 +109 +041 211046 046 042 000 00
180430 2116N 08531W 6962 03132 0006 +107 +042 212046 047 042 001 00
180500 2117N 08532W 6963 03132 0015 +099 +043 213049 050 042 000 03
180530 2118N 08534W 6951 03139 0030 +086 +045 217047 048 044 001 03
180600 2118N 08535W 6959 03128 0031 +081 +045 222048 049 044 000 03
180630 2119N 08537W 6969 03115 0019 +089 +045 221050 051 045 001 00
180700 2121N 08538W 6955 03129 0015 +088 +043 214051 052 047 001 00
180730 2122N 08540W 6962 03116 0003 +094 +042 212052 053 046 001 00
180800 2124N 08541W 6957 03119 0000 +095 +041 208053 054 043 000 00
180830 2125N 08542W 6961 03110 9990 +102 +041 206055 055 045 000 00
180900 2127N 08544W 6967 03100 9980 +106 +041 208058 059 047 001 00
180930 2128N 08545W 6957 03110 9976 +104 +042 210060 060 047 001 00
181000 2129N 08546W 6955 03102 9972 +101 +043 210062 063 047 001 00
181030 2131N 08548W 6965 03084 9960 +104 +044 213065 067 049 000 03
181100 2132N 08549W 6961 03076 9933 +114 +044 207070 073 052 001 03
181130 2134N 08550W 6954 03071 9912 +120 +045 208074 074 056 000 03
181200 2135N 08552W 6959 03054 9905 +116 +047 211078 081 061 000 00
181230 2137N 08553W 6954 03051 9904 +105 +049 207081 082 060 000 03
181300 2138N 08554W 6959 03027 9886 +106 +051 203079 080 059 002 00
$$
;

[gone2beach]

I live in Harrison County, MS and oddly enough have found that most people I have spoken to today are not even aware that there is a storm brewing.

I suspect we'll get high tides, maybe a bit of surge because of the shape of the gulf, rain and some wind.

I'll be going down to the beach in just a bit...will let you know what my observations are...

[cycloneye]

Ivan,look at this loop that 12z UKMET has.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

181630 2145N 08606W 6963 02961 9735 +177 +071 291002 004 031 000 00

974 mb

[PTPatrick]

Interesting thing about that loop...other than the further NW track than previous UKMET run...is that the isobars are MUCH tighter on the NW side of the system then the NE showing Mobile getting in probably the tightest of the isobars.

[HURAKAN]

182030 2155N 08600W 6952 03005 9850 +100 +100 143086 091 080 006 00
182100 2156N 08558W 6966 03004 9906 +074 +074 141092 094 077 009 01
182130 2157N 08557W 6952 03035 9923 +068 +068 136089 092 074 011 00

Very strong winds

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 081821
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 23 20091108
181330 2140N 08556W 6971 02991 9855 +114 +052 198084 087 060 000 00
181400 2141N 08557W 6952 02994 9816 +126 +052 192072 082 058 004 00
181430 2143N 08559W 6951 02982 9782 +148 +051 205045 047 039 000 03
181500 2143N 08601W 6967 02955 9755 +162 +053 202033 038 038 002 03
181530 2144N 08602W 6950 02971 9747 +165 +058 202024 027 036 000 03
181600 2144N 08604W 6958 02967 9739 +173 +065 200013 017 032 000 00
181630 2145N 08606W 6963 02961 9735 +177 +071 291002 004 031 000 00
181700 2145N 08608W 6963 02971 9741 +177 +077 302009 011 031 001 03
181730 2147N 08608W 6957 02973 9733 +183 +083 075004 006 034 001 03
181800 2148N 08607W 6961 02963 9719 +191 +088 142008 009 036 001 00
181830 2149N 08605W 6965 02954 9718 +188 +094 132016 022 041 000 00
181900 2151N 08604W 6958 02963 9733 +175 +098 136025 031 071 000 03
181930 2152N 08603W 6958 02968 9774 +138 +102 150045 048 081 000 03
182000 2153N 08601W 6967 02964 9812 +116 +103 149063 070 083 002 00
182030 2155N 08600W 6952 03005 9850 +100 +100 143086 091 080 006 00
182100 2156N 08558W 6966 03004 9906 +074 +074 141092 094 077 009 01
182130 2157N 08557W 6952 03035 9923 +068 +068 136089 092 074 011 00
182200 2158N 08556W 6982 02999 9926 +071 +068 135085 086 074 010 00
182230 2159N 08555W 6960 03038 9933 +074 +056 134088 089 079 014 00
182300 2200N 08553W 6963 03047 9951 +074 +047 137084 087 074 017 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[smw1981]

Right in the backyard there . . . .

Sabanic (and all other Alabama coast residents), we have been spared the brunt of storms for a while now..let's hope our luck continues! Even with a Cat. 1, flooding along the beaches, bay, Dog River, Mobile River, etc. can be devastating. Not that I wish hurricanes or even tropical storms on anyone, but because this thing is supposed to be here late tomorrow, early Tuesday, there is little time to prepare. I hope the local mets all along the northern GC are able to get the word out quickly. EMA in Mobile has not even activated yet (or called it's volunteers for that matter). There is just not much time...

[HURAKAN]

[deltadog03]

Pressure looks like 973mb with drop. 6kt sfc wind in the drop

[deltadog03]

looks like 973mb now, with a 6kt wind in the drop. IMO they will prolly find strongest winds in SW quad.

[HURAKAN]