Steve H

[cycloneye]

When JB puts out his updated seasonal forecast this month?I ask because then we can compare what he will put out with what Dr Gray said today and NOAA= (which will be out tommorow) will say.

[Crankin]

Jb's updated forecast is due out this Friday, but he stated this morning that it will increase, with the largest increase in Florida. This could be our year!

[cycloneye]

Thank you crankin.

[Steve H.]

yeah, apparently (I say that 'cause I don't get his service) he is saying Florida is under the gun. We've heard this before, and maybe he needs more people here in the sunshine state to sign up But, it may have some merit looking at the current pattern. But the current pattern would bring storms into Florida, but it also inhibits storm development due to high pressures in the Atlantic. Sure, strong ridging delivers the Florida coast whatever is there, but its difficult for storms to form in this pattern. So its kinda a catch 22. Timing is everything. You're more likely to get a hit up in the New England with this pattern than here, since the ridge would need to get disrupted to cause an area to develop, then when you get the pulse to weaken the ridge and go up the coast. It is a rare event that the Florida east coast gets hit. Andrew was just that anomaly when high pressure built to his NW just before he may have ran the coast. Imagine if an area like Ft. Lauderdale got hit with such an anomaly :o Florida was actually very lucky it hit south of Miami then went through the Everglades. Will they be lucky the next time?? We may wait another 10 -30 years to see; or a month :o Cheers!!

[cycloneye]

As always we say time will tell about possible landfalls in the caribbean or at the US coastline.

[Guest]

Wonder what he is supporting his prediction with? LOL on wanting to get more members from Florida. Wonder if he's getting an new members this hurricane season!

Patricia

[Steve Cosby]

Me, for one, signed up this year.

Know why? Bastardi and his buds are funny. They don't take themselves too seriously but, yet, they know what they are talking about. I enjoy watching the Point/Counterpoint and Tropical video segments - in addition to a form of entertainment (*), they are informative and I learn stuff. Joe Sobel and Bastardi are both clearly in the upper echelon. Reeves is smart but he is a better face for the camera than the other two. He knows just enough to set Bastardi off in the Point/Counterpoint segments.

JB has been ranting about the government weather service giving away stuff. He's right: I can get better graphics and data on severe storm activity from the Storm Prediction Center website. They put a "Forecast Tools" section up this year that is just fantastic to use for watching storms coming my way (I live on the edge of tornado alley).

(*) around here watching cars rust is close to entertainment too.

[Stormsfury]

Me, for one, signed up this year.

Know why? Bastardi and his buds are funny. They don't take themselves too seriously but, yet, they know what they are talking about. I enjoy watching the Point/Counterpoint and Tropical video segments - in addition to a form of entertainment (*), they are informative and I learn stuff. Joe Sobel and Bastardi are both clearly in the upper echelon. Reeves is smart but he is a better face for the camera than the other two. He knows just enough to set Bastardi off in the Point/Counterpoint segments.

JB has been ranting about the government weather service giving away stuff. He's right: I can get better graphics and data on severe storm activity from the Storm Prediction Center website. They put a "Forecast Tools" section up this year that is just fantastic to use for watching storms coming my way (I live on the edge of tornado alley).

(*) around here watching cars rust is close to entertainment too.

Or many other "free" websites ... let's see Unisys, Dupage College, FSU that get their data from the NWS - the radars from the Dupage College website are absolutely nice for the price.

SF

[Steve Cosby]

For completeness on my previous message, here is the page I was talking about:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

[rainstorm]

jb wont give up on landfalls, and major ones at that.
after mid-august i think the pattern will shift away from east coast and fla landfalls. what i have often seen is as soon as forecasters start talking about drought or flooding, the pattern reverses. i think we will have a dry pattern over the east soon. deflecting any cane way out to sea

[Stormsfury]

For completeness on my previous message, here is the page I was talking about:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

Thanks, Steve ... I wasn't disagreeing with you. Just adding about all the better graphics and free sites available on the web for us to digest.

[Steve Cosby]

For completeness on my previous message, here is the page I was talking about:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

Thanks, Steve ... I wasn't disagreeing with you. Just adding about all the better graphics and free sites available on the web for us to digest.

Oh, I know - I was just providing that.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Every year he says the same about Florida. One of these times he'll be right. On the other hand, Sounds like Grey put a knife in the core of the season. What ever happened to predictors from Spring correlating to the next Hurricane season. Last year he changed it lower because El Nino, weak as it may, did show. This year no La Nina. So far that is. So he changed it lower again. In fact look at the latest SST down there and it looks like La Nina is trying to make a comeback. Mabe NOAA's statement of "La Nina Playing Possum" is true. Lets see if the pressures start dropping in the Tropical Atlantic. If they can go up in a month they sure can go down in a month.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes, saying Florida stands a good chance to get hit by a hurricane is also backed up by climatology. Here is a link from the TPC that lists hurricane strikes from 1900 to 1996:):):)


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/paststate.html