ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 081931
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 30 20091108
192330 2319N 08725W 6958 03159 0066 +077 +053 079025 026 033 000 00
192400 2319N 08728W 6961 03159 0069 +075 +053 077025 026 031 001 00
192430 2319N 08730W 6960 03157 0065 +079 +053 075025 025 031 000 00
192500 2320N 08732W 6959 03160 0058 +084 +053 073025 026 031 000 00
192530 2320N 08735W 6964 03158 0065 +085 +054 069025 026 028 001 03
192600 2318N 08736W 6961 03162 0073 +079 +055 066022 022 999 999 03
192630 2317N 08735W 6963 03153 0071 +077 +056 069019 021 029 000 03
192700 2316N 08734W 6958 03162 0066 +077 +057 074016 017 031 000 00
192730 2314N 08732W 6958 03157 0063 +080 +057 071016 016 030 000 00
192800 2313N 08731W 6960 03156 0062 +080 +057 074018 018 029 000 00
192830 2312N 08729W 6959 03157 0063 +080 +057 076018 018 029 000 00
192900 2310N 08728W 6959 03159 0067 +076 +057 076019 020 030 000 00
192930 2309N 08726W 6959 03156 0066 +076 +057 081018 018 029 000 00
193000 2308N 08725W 6958 03156 0064 +078 +057 084017 018 030 001 00
193030 2306N 08723W 6959 03154 0060 +079 +057 080016 017 031 000 00
193100 2305N 08722W 6961 03152 0064 +075 +056 081017 017 033 000 00
193130 2304N 08720W 6958 03157 0059 +078 +055 086017 020 031 000 00
193200 2303N 08719W 6963 03148 0050 +085 +054 094022 023 032 000 00
193230 2302N 08717W 6962 03149 0051 +084 +054 094024 024 032 000 00
193300 2300N 08716W 6959 03153 0055 +080 +054 092023 024 031 000 00
$$
;

[duris]

Can't get quotes to display right on iPhone, but to the poster who said New Orleans is not under a watch, in fact it is under a tropical storm wind watch. [edit:actually watch seems to only apply to the nearby lakes]

[gone2beach]

On shore winds are about out of the ESE 19-24 mph (estimated), water temp at Long Beach Harbor is 73*F. Popcorn type clouds, a few rain streaks...and a few kite boarders...We just passed low tide (1:24 PM) and water is up to where our high tide is normally, or just slightly above.

[Derek Ortt]

Hi everyone, I've been a member of S2K for about 5 years now, and have been watching the board all season. I live inCape Coral Florida, but my concern with this system is that my son is now living in Lake Charles La, and I'm not familar with that area, is there anyone on here who is near there and can tell me perhaps what county that is, or how close to the cone? he just turned 18 and has never been away from me, and has no phone available to him at the moment...any help would be appreciated!

Lake Charles is in the far southwest portion of the state. Assuming this forecast holds, he'll see more weather from the cold front going through than he will from Ida. Go to his NWS office at: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/ to stay up to date on how the forecast evolves.

I don't see this being a big event for Louisiana apart from rain, since I would expect it to be quite asymmetrical at that point. There isn't even a watch for the New Orleans area (a TS Watch would be a good idea though). However, if it makes landfall, it would be more intense on the eastern side.

If that projected track holds, the worst weather should stay in the Gulf. But if it makes landfall, the coastal towns and everything south/east of the center should see very strong winds and storm surge issues.

that is not accurate. Due to the pressure gradient, the highest winds are likely to the west of the center. In fact, I would say Louisiana has the greatest chance at seeing hurricane force winds. Significant water rises can also be expected there

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 081941
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 31 20091108
193330 2259N 08714W 6962 03148 0055 +081 +054 092021 022 032 000 00
193400 2258N 08713W 6961 03151 0054 +082 +054 088021 021 032 000 00
193430 2257N 08711W 6959 03150 0052 +083 +054 083021 021 033 001 00
193500 2256N 08709W 6962 03147 0060 +076 +054 082021 022 034 000 00
193530 2255N 08708W 6959 03153 0054 +081 +054 079019 020 033 000 00
193600 2254N 08706W 6967 03143 0048 +084 +054 083019 020 032 000 00
193630 2252N 08705W 6966 03143 0052 +082 +053 074020 022 034 001 00
193700 2251N 08703W 6955 03153 0047 +083 +054 077018 019 037 002 00
193730 2250N 08702W 6967 03135 0041 +086 +054 086021 022 036 002 00
193800 2249N 08701W 6957 03150 0034 +092 +054 082022 023 036 001 00
193830 2248N 08659W 6958 03145 0029 +095 +053 075023 024 037 001 00
193900 2247N 08658W 6962 03141 0034 +090 +054 073024 024 038 000 00
193930 2246N 08656W 6958 03144 0041 +085 +055 074025 025 038 000 00
194000 2245N 08655W 6958 03144 0037 +085 +056 075024 025 037 001 00
194030 2244N 08654W 6961 03138 0038 +083 +055 071025 025 035 000 00
194100 2243N 08652W 6959 03139 0032 +088 +054 071023 024 036 003 00
194130 2242N 08651W 6961 03136 0034 +086 +054 076022 022 037 005 00
194200 2241N 08649W 6959 03138 0032 +087 +052 070022 024 039 005 00
194230 2240N 08648W 6961 03135 0028 +090 +050 069024 025 041 004 00
194300 2239N 08647W 6959 03140 0024 +093 +048 071024 025 043 001 00
$$
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[Javlin]

What is Euro showing for strength on the NGOM. Where does Euro call the "landfall" of whatever the system is when it reaches the coast.

From the best I could tell it looks like Mobile bay

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9110812!!/

[nashrobertsx]

Governor Jindal decalres state of emergency for Louisiana. Great, and 100,000 are making their way to the superdome for the saints game.

[Aric Dunn]

cuban radar..

[PTPatrick]

Derek...what woudl expect surge wise in the LA parishes and Along the MS coast. Would seem like the landfall is going to be a hair to far east for a big surge in the MS counties, although I am sure Plaquemines would get a big surge, and the north wind could effect st. bernard, and Orleans parishes.

[jaxfladude]

Governor Jindal decalres state of emergency for Louisiana. Great, and 100,000 are making their way to the superdome for the saints game.

That state just can not catch a break, hopefully lessons have been learned.

[Aric Dunn]

Derek...what woudl expect surge wise in the LA parishes and Along the MS coast. Would seem like the landfall is going to be a hair to far east for a big surge in the MS counties, although I am sure Plaquemines would get a big surge, and the north wind could effect st. bernard, and Orleans parishes.

the hurricane force winds are pretty small .. but there has been a large fetch of 30 to 40 mph winds blowing over the gulf for the last 3 days which has increased the wave heights quite a bit. the flow will be from the ese at first then IF ida approaches that area then water rises could be substantial ! we cannot say for sure yet where ida will go it may still end up much farther east than LA

[Evil Jeremy]

cuban radar..

I see north, just north movement.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 081951
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 32 20091108
194330 2238N 08645W 6959 03138 0019 +097 +047 068023 024 042 001 00
194400 2237N 08644W 6962 03136 0022 +095 +046 071023 024 042 000 00
194430 2236N 08642W 6961 03134 0021 +095 +047 078025 026 044 001 00
194500 2235N 08641W 6959 03135 0015 +096 +049 070024 025 045 002 00
194530 2234N 08639W 6959 03137 0014 +096 +050 069026 026 046 005 00
194600 2233N 08638W 6961 03129 0016 +094 +050 070029 029 047 007 00
194630 2232N 08637W 6959 03131 0025 +085 +051 066031 031 048 008 00
194700 2231N 08635W 6958 03130 0020 +087 +050 062031 031 050 007 00
194730 2230N 08634W 6959 03128 0019 +087 +047 060030 031 050 008 00
194800 2228N 08632W 6961 03122 0022 +083 +044 055029 030 052 009 00
194830 2227N 08631W 6961 03122 0019 +085 +042 052030 031 054 008 00
194900 2226N 08630W 6964 03110 0034 +069 +039 045031 031 054 008 00
194930 2225N 08628W 6961 03115 0037 +064 +037 051030 032 052 008 00
195000 2224N 08627W 6963 03107 0041 +060 +034 056035 039 054 012 00
195030 2223N 08625W 6949 03120 0033 +062 +032 073038 039 053 007 00
195100 2222N 08624W 6960 03102 0025 +064 +030 072044 050 055 012 00
195130 2221N 08623W 6965 03093 0026 +058 +028 075044 046 054 009 00
195200 2220N 08621W 6966 03087 0011 +066 +027 071047 048 055 007 00
195230 2219N 08620W 6959 03092 9989 +078 +026 069048 051 059 013 00
195300 2218N 08619W 6962 03081 9971 +089 +026 066046 047 066 015 00
$$
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[PTPatrick]

I know the ESE is already effecting them. Mom said tide was already a little high this morning in their bayou near the MS/AL state line...it is sort of oriented sw to ne, so SE to S winds really pile it up for them.

[HURAKAN]

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 081827
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
127 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.

THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
HURRICANE IDA IN THE LONGER RANGE...BUT AS IDA TRANSITIONS TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NEAR THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BEGINS TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE EAST...THIS
SHOULD PUSH RAINBANDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ONSHORE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NATURE COAST ON TUESDAY. ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA. AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST...TIDES MAY BECOME A FOOT OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL MAINLY
NORTH OF TAMPA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD IDA WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO EXTRATROPICAL AS IT
MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THIS AND ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TRACK OF IDA VIA NHC...BUT THE
NAM IS MUCH SLOWER IN ITS FORWARD MOTION COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF
AND HAS THE REMNANTS OF IDA STILL OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SCENARIO WITH A DEEPENING BAROCLINIC LOW
MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EAR;Y ON THURSDAY.

IN ANY CASEAT THE MOMENT PREFER THE FASTER LOOKING GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND WILL
LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. CASE AS THE REMNANTS OF IDA
LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN TANDEM
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AN ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WILL DEPICT SCATTERED RANGE POPS (40%) ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAIN CHANCES STRONG WIND FIELDS AND HIGH SHEAR VALUES TO THE EAST
OF IDA WILL KEEP AN INCREASED THREAT FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BAY
AREA NORTH.





SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM

[CrazyC83]

As this continues north, the windfield should expand, correct? If that is the case, the pressure could continue to fall (or at least hold on) even if the winds weaken...

[Aric Dunn]

cuban radar..

I see north, just north movement.

yep pretty much.. which is what I have been expecting today as I (and a few others) mentioned yesterday..

[brunota2003]

Seeing 66 knots, unflagged, on the Smurf already? This will be a very interesting eyewall pass

[jdray]

Ivan,look at this loop that 12z UKMET has.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

i dont like that loop

jeeesh, with that loop all but the southern tip of Florida is in play and some areas twice! lol

LOL, yeah NE Florida would get backsided and then a return visit. Nice....


Meanwhile, the weather in Miami will be sunny and warm.