ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082221
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 47 20091108
221330 2300N 08547W 6963 03113 0018 +085 +015 140068 070 055 006 00
221400 2302N 08546W 6961 03121 0018 +087 +016 142067 067 054 004 00
221430 2303N 08544W 6971 03111 0028 +084 +017 141066 066 054 005 00
221500 2304N 08543W 6969 03118 0029 +086 +018 140063 063 053 007 00
221530 2305N 08542W 6971 03118 0036 +083 +019 136065 068 054 013 00
221600 2306N 08540W 6961 03130 0065 +060 +019 132066 069 055 011 00
221630 2307N 08539W 6977 03117 0067 +060 +018 131061 064 054 011 00
221700 2308N 08538W 6983 03111 0068 +063 +015 132070 073 054 009 00
221730 2310N 08537W 6972 03129 0069 +063 +012 130070 071 053 008 00
221800 2311N 08535W 6965 03132 0054 +075 +010 129070 073 053 008 00
221830 2312N 08534W 6965 03135 0045 +082 +009 132067 068 052 008 00
221900 2313N 08533W 6968 03131 0059 +073 +010 132067 068 052 008 00
221930 2314N 08532W 6963 03142 0072 +063 +010 131069 071 052 009 00
222000 2315N 08531W 6974 03129 0073 +064 +010 130069 069 053 010 00
222030 2316N 08529W 6967 03134 0078 +058 +009 130066 069 051 012 00
222100 2317N 08528W 6966 03137 0085 +056 +008 130064 065 051 010 00
222130 2318N 08527W 6964 03137 0087 +055 +007 130065 066 050 009 00
222200 2319N 08526W 6970 03129 0082 +058 +006 130065 066 050 010 00
222230 2320N 08524W 6964 03137 0077 +060 +005 129065 065 050 008 00
222300 2321N 08523W 6967 03139 0082 +058 +004 128064 065 050 009 00
$$
;

[MGC]

Yep, sea foam don't lie. SFMR is more accurate than guessing the proper conversion factor to use......MGC

[Derek Ortt]

I'm thinking the P'Cola area, there has to be a bend toward the NNE to NE south of Mobile.

Others have stated here that the North & West side of Ida is the strongest. If this is correct than a bend to the NNE-NE just south of Mobile would be the worst case scenario for this area

The whole North side (NW to NE) will be strong if it goes ET. If it's still mostly tropical, the NE quadrant will be much worse.

not in this case. The NW side will have the tighter pressure gradient

[Thunder44]

conversion factor irrelevant since we have SFMR

still an 85KT cane, even though FL winds suggest cat 3

yeah but they dont always follow sfmr ...

I think they will follow SFMR this time, because the pressure apparently hasn't changed much, since the last pass.

[Macrocane]

This kind of reminds me to Ike, pressure falling down but winds are not going up, I'm not sure if it will reach cat3 but certainly it could intensify more, actually I think it it intensifying it's just a question of time to see stronger surface winds. By the way in the thread of observations and preparations for Ida I have just posted some links with photographic galleries with the damages here in El Salvador.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep, sea foam don't lie. SFMR is more accurate than guessing the proper conversion factor to use......MGC

not always... different salinity make less or more sea foam.. lol also in extreme rain there is some issues.. the bean is supposed to penetrate, also wave heights might play a role.. the conversion factor has been used for decades and has provided a consistent measure .. i will always use that over sfmr till all the kinks are worked out..

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 082225
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/21:59:50Z
B. 22 deg 28 min N
086 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2936 m
D. 80 kt
E. 167 deg 15 nm
F. 256 deg 85 kt
G. 164 deg 12 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 12 C / 3049 m
J. 19 C / 3050 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. OPEN E
M. E19/20/10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 22:09:00Z
SFC CNTR 360 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
OUTBOUND MAX SFC WINDS 84KTS NE QUAD 22:04:40Z

[fsusurfer]

Just got back in from surfing here in Destin. Waves over head high with some larger coming in, and increasing. Tell you what though, for this time of year the water is pretty warm, but it isn't that warm. Everyone surfing in spring or full suits. If this cane moves fast it may survive till landfall, but if not, once it gets a few hundred miles off the beach it wont last to long.

[Aric Dunn]

conversion factor irrelevant since we have SFMR

still an 85KT cane, even though FL winds suggest cat 3

yeah but they dont always follow sfmr ...

I they will follow SFMR this time, because the pressure apparently hasn't changed much, since the last pass.

but the pressure dropped before the winds respond later after pressure falls..

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 082225
XXAA 58227 99222 70863 08126 99991 24611 28083 00583 ///// /////
92604 25446 28552 85346 21433 27057 70015 12659 25567 88999 77999
31313 09608 82154
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 24
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 2222N08618W 2158 MBL WND 28574 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 27065 990697 WL150 28584 093 REL 2221N08625W 215458 SPG 222
1N08618W 215827 =
XXBB 58228 99222 70863 08126 00991 24611 11971 23615 22946 26650
33850 21433 44820 23860 55776 18656 66720 14050 77712 14857 88697
12260
21212 00991 28083 11967 29086 22959 29071 33929 28551 44916 28561
55886 28060 66870 27553 77857 27059 88850 27057 99837 27057 11833
28070 22823 26086 33780 25059 44753 24574 55697 25566
31313 09608 82154
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 24
62626 EYEWALL 225 SPL 2222N08618W 2158 MBL WND 28574 AEV 20801 DL
M WND 27065 990697 WL150 28584 093 REL 2221N08625W 215458 SPG 222
1N08618W 215827 =
;

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 082225
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/21:59:50Z
B. 22 deg 28 min N
086 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2936 m
D. 80 kt
E. 167 deg 15 nm
F. 256 deg 85 kt
G. 164 deg 12 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 12 C / 3049 m
J. 19 C / 3050 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. OPEN E
M. E19/20/10
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:21:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 22:09:00Z
SFC CNTR 360 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
OUTBOUND MAX SFC WINDS 84KTS NE QUAD 22:04:40Z

[Aric Dunn]

They will probably up the winds to 105mph..

[ozonepete]

Someone just set off a bomb in IDA. Sat presentation is looking much better. I see recon is in there so, given a bit more time it should respond with the winds.

right we were both saying it was just temporary.. the eye diameter is getting smaller .. pressure is down slightly again too ..

And look at the radial cirrus outflow on the south side, corresponding to the burst over the center. More evidence of a real power burst.

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 082222
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 13 20091108
221230 2620N 08842W 5968 04447 0097 +009 -071 134025 025 035 001 00
221300 2621N 08840W 5969 04446 0095 +010 -068 135026 027 035 001 00
221330 2621N 08838W 5968 04448 0095 +010 -050 136027 027 035 001 00
221400 2622N 08835W 5967 04449 0095 +010 -055 136026 027 035 001 00
221430 2623N 08833W 5968 04448 0095 +010 -051 136025 026 034 000 00
221500 2624N 08831W 5969 04447 0096 +010 -054 135025 025 034 001 00
221530 2624N 08829W 5968 04448 0096 +009 -040 135024 025 035 000 00
221600 2625N 08826W 5968 04450 0098 +007 -015 135024 024 034 002 00
221630 2626N 08824W 5983 04430 0102 +009 -029 133023 024 034 001 00
221700 2627N 08822W 6064 04322 0099 +014 +006 131022 023 034 001 00
221730 2627N 08820W 6161 04194 0097 +023 +005 126023 025 035 001 00
221800 2628N 08817W 6310 03998 0106 +029 +026 123027 028 034 001 00
221830 2629N 08815W 6464 03804 0108 +042 +024 121026 027 035 001 00
221900 2630N 08813W 6609 03623 0103 +058 +018 117023 023 033 001 00
221930 2630N 08811W 6754 03446 9996 +069 +010 091024 038 033 001 00
222000 2631N 08808W 6900 03270 9998 +082 -002 090026 041 033 000 00
222030 2632N 08806W 7051 03091 0105 +095 -001 113026 026 033 001 00
222100 2632N 08804W 7200 02918 0107 +111 -153 116028 029 033 002 00
222130 2633N 08802W 7270 02837 0109 +115 -166 115028 029 032 001 00
222200 2634N 08800W 7273 02836 0108 +117 -206 116029 030 031 002 00

[brunota2003]

Pressure of 991 with 83 knot winds at the surface on that drop

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082231
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 48 20091108
222330 2323N 08522W 6968 03138 0078 +062 +003 127064 065 048 007 00
222400 2324N 08521W 6967 03138 0076 +065 +003 127065 067 047 004 03
222430 2326N 08520W 6970 03137 0082 +061 +003 126065 066 046 006 00
222500 2327N 08520W 6966 03141 0084 +061 +004 126065 066 046 004 00
222530 2329N 08519W 6967 03141 0071 +070 +004 126062 065 044 003 03
222600 2331N 08519W 6967 03143 0075 +070 +005 128061 062 043 003 03
222630 2333N 08519W 6966 03145 0064 +081 +006 131059 061 043 002 00
222700 2335N 08519W 6967 03145 0069 +080 +009 129058 059 041 001 00
222730 2337N 08519W 6967 03149 0072 +078 +011 124056 056 042 002 00
222800 2339N 08519W 6963 03152 0077 +075 +014 121055 056 042 002 00
222830 2341N 08519W 6969 03151 0082 +072 +017 119051 053 043 002 00
222900 2343N 08519W 6963 03154 0078 +073 +019 117050 051 042 003 00
222930 2345N 08519W 6967 03153 0078 +075 +020 115047 049 041 001 00
223000 2346N 08519W 6970 03154 0077 +079 +021 114045 046 040 002 03
223030 2348N 08521W 6965 03155 0075 +080 +024 112044 044 044 001 03
223100 2349N 08522W 6970 03146 0072 +080 +025 112043 044 044 001 00
223130 2350N 08524W 6962 03160 0069 +080 +026 113044 044 045 000 00
223200 2351N 08526W 6967 03157 0070 +083 +027 113045 045 043 002 03
223230 2352N 08529W 6962 03159 0069 +083 +028 111043 044 044 001 00
223300 2352N 08531W 6968 03154 0067 +085 +029 111043 043 044 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Given the pressure and SFMR, I would stick to 85 kt.

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 082229
XXAA 58227 99225 70863 08126 99977 26807 33046 00706 ///// /////
92486 24013 34540 85235 26860 35015 70917 14857 01019 88999 77999
31313 09608 82200
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 25
62626 EYE SPL 2246N08632W 2203 MBL WND 34040 AEV 20801 DLM WND 35
022 977697 WL150 33543 084 REL 2248N08633W 220005 SPG 2246N08632W
220341 =
XXBB 58228 99225 70863 08126 00977 26807 11927 23807 22915 25646
33875 27660 44850 26860 55722 15838 66697 14658
21212 00977 33046 11959 33538 22921 34539 33884 35021 44850 35015
55830 00518 66806 34521 77766 01014 88745 34524 99734 04501 11716
09501 22697 01023
31313 09608 82200
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 25
62626 EYE SPL 2246N08632W 2203 MBL WND 34040 AEV 20801 DLM WND 35
022 977697 WL150 33543 084 REL 2248N08633W 220005 SPG 2246N08632W
220341 =
;

Eye drop - 977mb with 46kts says they REALLY missed the center. The 10kts/mb rule gets a bit more sketchy with winds this high, but that would suggest at least 973mb.

[Dave]

[Aric Dunn]

nearly closed again .. looking better.. I wish i could get cuban radar to load thats where all the convection is that and cancun is getting farther away..