ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

Lighting was observed meaning she still got life left.

000
URNT12 KNHC 082332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/23:04:40Z
B. 22 deg 47 min N
086 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2948 m
D. 80 kt
E. 355 deg 4 nm
F. 099 deg 103 kt
G. 359 deg 8 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 7 C / 3069 m
J. 17 C / 3054 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. OPEN E
M. C8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA OB 29
MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 22:09:20Z
HAIL AND CONT LIGHTNING N QUAD
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URNT12 KNHC 082332
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/23:04:40Z
B. 22 deg 47 min N
086 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2948 m
D. 80 kt
E. 355 deg 4 nm
F. 099 deg 103 kt
G. 359 deg 8 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 7 C / 3069 m
J. 17 C / 3054 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. OPEN E
M. C8
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA OB 29
MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 22:09:20Z
HAIL AND CONT LIGHTNING N QUAD
;

felix had alot of lightning and hail .. the plane left because of that..

[Blown Away]

I think we are seeing Ida's peak and the downward trend with Ida should begin. The west side of the circulation is getting flat as the shear is kicking in and cooler SST's are not to far off. Amazing system for November.

[deltadog03]

WOW...HAIL and continous LIGHTNING in N quad....interesting. Seems that the new bursts and much better presentation is a little slow to transfer to the coast.

[Dave]

AF309 Mission Over



See you all again soon....sooner than I thought..wrong picture...try this one.

[Derek Ortt]

where is the eye dropsonde

also, lightening means rapid intensity CHANGE... that could mean rapid weakening

[Aric Dunn]

THe 980 pressure seems suspect.. winds were at 30 kts at the time !!

[bahamaswx]

[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg[img]

I think we are seeing Ida's peak and the downward trend with Ida should begin. The west side of the circulation is getting flat as the shear is kicking in and cooler SST's are not to far off. Amazing system for November.

I disagree. Looks to me like the western side is coming back if anything. Was certainly much more eroded earlier.

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 082334
XXAA 58237 99228 70864 08126 99980 27618 ///// 00683 ///// /////
92509 24415 08515 85252 24658 06522 70938 16260 14503 88999 77999
31313 09608 82304
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 31
62626 EYE SPL 2278N08644W 2308 LST WND 013 MBL WND 09516 AEV 2080
1 DLM WND 08517 978697 WL150 09519 085 REL 2278N08642W 230442 SPG
2278N08644W 230841 =
XXBB 58238 99228 70864 08126 00980 27618 11885 22422 22868 25458
33850 24658 44808 24461 55762 20459 66722 18860 77697 15460
21212 00980 ///// 11978 08516 22962 10522 33947 09513 44937 07512
55917 08518 66905 07021 77898 06527 88873 06029 99850 06522 11830
10021 22770 08017 33731 10015 44697 17501
31313 09608 82304
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 31
62626 EYE SPL 2278N08644W 2308 LST WND 013 MBL WND 09516 AEV 2080
1 DLM WND 08517 978697 WL150 09519 085 REL 2278N08642W 230442 SPG
2278N08644W 230841 =
;

[cycloneye]

The next plane will depart at 10:30 PM EST.

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 09/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0611A IDA
C. 09/0330Z
D. 22.8N 87.2W
E. 09/0500Z TO 09/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Aric Dunn]

That is one tight eye.. I wish i could see the other side.. dumb cuban radar..

not surprised about the lightning.. very intense north and western eyewall..

[jinftl]

I don't think I have seen a Cat 2 with such a poor satellite presentation...



Other than cdo (which is small in diameter), there is no convection on the western half of the storm. It is clearly feeling the impact of shear. The cdo is symmetrical and impressive....but let's compate Ida for a second to "her"

Katrina:


Picture is worth a thousand words...

[Derek Ortt]

lightening means significant intensity CHANGE. It may mean rapid weakening will begin soon. We'll just have to wait and see

[deltadog03]

I think IDA is on the rebound and she is bringing vengence. lol That 980mb, if correct, is a bit higher, but remember before the past hour or so she was looking kinda ill. Give it another hour and I bet she will be stronger.

[Cyclenall]

On imagery it does look like it's on the downward trend, but continuous lightning and hail in the northern quad suggests the opposite.

[Dean4Storms]

She looks like she is deepening on IR.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL landfall as a cat 1.That is much less intense than the past runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation



18z HWRF landfall is as a strong tropical storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

Continues to expand on the western side. Intense convection on the increase

[Thunder44]

THe 980 pressure seems suspect.. winds were at 30 kts at the time !!

I see on Google that winds were only 16kts at that time. So maybe just 979mb.

[Blown Away]

Either the center is going to miss the next forecast point to the east or the convection has been displaced to the east side of the circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html