ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[lonelymike]

You can really see the upper trof coming in from the west on the WV imagery now. Stronger southerly flow aloft is reaching Ida now. Big question remains - what will be left of Ida at landfall?

the shear is still decreasing out ahead of IDA !!

the trough in the west gulf is helping with that as an associated upper low has been moving in tandem with IDA fro 3 days and still is... until that changes upper environment is not changing much..

Oh dear

[Aric Dunn]

who said models...?? I did not.. thats all i have been looking at is whats going on now and I see the opposite happening.. earlier there was more restriction now there is less.. lol

[attallaman]

Aric,

To be fair she has started to move more NW. She is not going to stay on an exact track. She has been wobbling. This NW motion will bring her back on the forecast track

Is the MS Gulf Coast now in the clear tonight or is it possible that I'll still experience something from Ida as of the latest advisory from the NHC?

[RNGR]

who said models...?? I did not.. thats all i have been looking at is whats going on now and I see the opposite happening.. earlier there was more restriction now there is less.. lol

i agree, there doesnt look like much outflow restriction at all, especially looking at that little WV loop

[srainhoutx]

Take a look at WV Imagery folks. Some times we get wrapped up in floater Imagery and forget to look at the a bigger picture...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[tolakram]

Point noted Wxman, thanks. This is 2 hours difference.




I can see the western edge is not expanding much, but it's not shrinking either. There is a wall there.

[Javlin]

smw1981:What is the range (locations) within that 60 miles?

The range is from Mobile to Pensacola

[Ivanhater]

Aric,

To be fair she has started to move more NW. She is not going to stay on an exact track. She has been wobbling. This NW motion will bring her back on the forecast track

It won't bring her completely back on the forecast track. She was supposed to be moving NW this entire time, and she was moving NNW. She would have to move WNW to get back on track.

No she won't becasue the track is on a curve, not a straight line, she only needs to keep moving NW to be back on track, like she has been

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

To be fair she has started to move more NW. She is not going to stay on an exact track. She has been wobbling. This NW motion will bring her back on the forecast track

Is the MS Gulf Coast now in the clear tonight or is it possible that I'll still experience something from Ida as of the latest advisory from the NHC?

you will get something for sure.. and is really dependent if its east or west of you .. either way it will be wnidy.. and rainy

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

To be fair she has started to move more NW. She is not going to stay on an exact track. She has been wobbling. This NW motion will bring her back on the forecast track

It won't bring her completely back on the forecast track. She was supposed to be moving NW this entire time, and she was moving NNW. She would have to move WNW to get back on track.

No she won't becasue the track is on a curve, not a straight line, she only needs to keep moving NW to be back on track, like she has been

but she is not moving NW .. lol NNW

[Ivanhater]

Aric, I can see the difference with the convection expanding westward, but the coldest cloud tops are right around the center and is moving NW. She was wobbling, not changing track.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I can see the difference with the convection expanding westward, but the coldest cloud tops are right around the center and is moving NW. She was wobbling, not changing track.

you are still looking at clouds!! recon fixed 4 centers!! with a motion more towards N than NW .... 340 to 350!!

[RNGR]

Aric, I can see the difference with the convection expanding westward, but the coldest cloud tops are right around the center and is moving NW. She was wobbling, not changing track.

you are still looking at clouds!! recon fixed 4 centers!! with a motion more towards N than NW .... 340 to 350!!

when did those recon fixes take place?

[Ivanhater]

Aric, I can see the difference with the convection expanding westward, but the coldest cloud tops are right around the center and is moving NW. She was wobbling, not changing track.

you are still looking at clouds!! recon fixed 4 centers!! with a motion more towards N than NW .... 340 to 350!!

Lol, we are going to have to agree to disagree. This motion more NW occured after recon left.

[cycloneye]

Ok,to end the wobble wars,here is the Bam track at 00 UTC.

LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 86.5W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 11KT


http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 090033.txt

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I can see the difference with the convection expanding westward, but the coldest cloud tops are right around the center and is moving NW. She was wobbling, not changing track.

you are still looking at clouds!! recon fixed 4 centers!! with a motion more towards N than NW .... 340 to 350!!

when did those recon fixes take place?

an hour or so .. but people have been claiming NW for like 3 hours..

last recon fix was 2304 so an hour and some change..

[Aric Dunn]

Ok,to end the wobble wars,here is the Bam track at 00 UTC.

LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 86.5W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 11KT


http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 090033.txt

thank you .. that is nearly straight north ..

348.75 is North.. lol

[HurricaneQueen]

Thanks so much for the answers to my question about SMRF, pojo and JTE50. This place is the greatest for learning and for the wonderful peeps.

Lynn

[smw1981]

Aric, I can see the difference with the convection expanding westward, but the coldest cloud tops are right around the center and is moving NW. She was wobbling, not changing track.

you are still looking at clouds!! recon fixed 4 centers!! with a motion more towards N than NW .... 340 to 350!!

Not to get in the middle of this (because I respect both of your opinions on this board), but I thought recon found that motion a few hours ago? I do think she is moving more N than NW, but I also think she may reach the next forecasted point based on her direction and increase in speed. So basically, in my humble opinion, I think ya'll are both right on different things lol...

[RNGR]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Aric is right, look at this loop, its easy to see the eyewall convection moving more NNW than anything else. click the lat/lon button.