ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

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pojo
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3381 Postby pojo » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:last recon fix was 2304 so an hour and some change..

it takes roughly 90 minutes to pass through the eye again... its a timing issue... we need to hit the fixes in a certain time window.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3382 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:18 pm

Great discussion Aric, but I believe the best track bases its motion on an average of the past few hours, not recent trends.

She should be back on forecast track shortly.
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#3383 Postby robbielyn » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:19 pm

I looked at wv and he's right the bigger picture is ida wont go more west than she already is the ull is moving straight north, you can see the trought swirling in the western edge in texas on the wv making the ull go north for now but it is going to go east. and putting the wall up on ida. It's pensacola eastward not westward.

Ps. Public apology if I offended anyone earlier about being disappointed about fl wc not getting in on some of the action. :( :oops:
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3384 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:23 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Great discussion Aric, but I believe the best track bases its motion on an average of the past few hours, not recent trends.

She should be back on forecast track shortly.


best track ... whos talking about best track....?? i said recon fixes..

but anyway back to your regularly scheduled program.. hehe :P
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3385 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:This is how much farther east she is still from the 18z guidance.. still east side of all guidance and right side of nhc cone.. east shift in track later most likely..

black circle.. current location.. ( sat image is old )

Image


You hit the nail on the head. :wink:
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3386 Postby RNGR » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:27 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Great discussion Aric, but I believe the best track bases its motion on an average of the past few hours, not recent trends.

She should be back on forecast track shortly.


best track ... whos talking about best track....?? i said recon fixes..

but anyway back to your regularly scheduled program.. hehe :P


best track was posted on the last page, heading of 345
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3387 Postby MGC » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:29 pm

Use recon fixes to determine motion....not the way the clouds are moving.....MGC
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3388 Postby bucman1 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:33 pm

If what Aric says is true does that change anything for the west coast of Florida as far as effects from Ida?
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3389 Postby bucman1 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:35 pm

If what Aric says is true does that change anything for the west coast of Florida as far as effects from Ida?
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3390 Postby JTE50 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:37 pm

HurricaneQueen wrote:Thanks so much for the answers to my question about SMRF, pojo and JTE50. This place is the greatest for learning and for the wonderful peeps. :ggreen:

Lynn


Lyn, As the plane flies through a storm, the SFMR detects microwave radiation naturally emitted from foam created on the sea by winds at the surface. Computers then determine wind speeds based on the levels of microwave radiation detected. I think early on when it was first deployed it was not right on the money and with time it has been tweaked to give a pretty accurate wind reading. In 2005 only the NOAA P3s had the SFMR, now the Air Force WC-130s have them too.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3391 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:37 pm

Jim Cantore is tonight in the road headed to somewhere in the gulf coast.Tommorow morning he will start to report.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3392 Postby MGC » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:39 pm

All the precipitation in the western GOM from interior Texas to central Louisiana is moving south to north. No hint of any east or north-east movement. The trough is not far enough east to cause a stearing flow that will push Ida NE any time soon. Ida is being steared by a ridge over the SE and should continue to move to the NNW to N in the short term. I'm thinking that Ida should make landfall between Mobile and Destin. Should still be a TC either a weak hurricane or strong TS.

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast......MGC
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3393 Postby JTE50 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:Jim Cantore is tonight in the road headed to somewhere in the gulf coast.Tommorow morning he will start to report.


Lots of folks think that if he comes to their town that's where the storm is going to hit. :)

I'll bet they are going to deploy to Pensacola and east to Panama City.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3394 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:43 pm

Northeasterly push coming I think: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3395 Postby Javlin » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:43 pm

If anything I see a better organized system from this afternoon with a much better CDO in all corners.I see whats to the NW of Ida and I think that has been a buffer if anything.The CDO has expanded W this afternoon and evening and forward speed is increasing on the NNW movement.But it remains when does she go N to NNE?at 88'?89'?models are seldom wrong this close and as mentioned before GFDL,HWRF,GFS and the Euro are all on the AL/FL line.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ft.html
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#3396 Postby psyclone » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:43 pm

Bucman i do suspect they'll have to shift the track slightly east in light of the recent movement but it shouldn't result in any changes to our weather here... we have a large safety cushion unless it were to hook east much farther south. i suspect the the NHC has good handle on the situation as usual and i look forward to the next advisory.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3397 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:44 pm

JTE50 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Jim Cantore is tonight in the road headed to somewhere in the gulf coast.Tommorow morning he will start to report.


Lots of folks think that if he comes to their town that's where the storm is going to hit. :)


That is right.He came here when Hurricane Georges made landfall.
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#3398 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:44 pm

I would say 75 miles east or west of P'Cola is the best bet!!
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3399 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:44 pm

JTE50 wrote:
HurricaneQueen wrote:Thanks so much for the answers to my question about SMRF, pojo and JTE50. This place is the greatest for learning and for the wonderful peeps. :ggreen:

Lynn


Lyn, As the plane flies through a storm, the SFMR detects microwave radiation naturally emitted from foam created on the sea by winds at the surface. Computers then determine wind speeds based on the levels of microwave radiation detected. I think early on when it was first deployed it was not right on the money and with time it has been tweaked to give a pretty accurate wind reading. In 2005 only the NOAA P3s had the SFMR, now the Air Force WC-130s have them too.


Hi JTE! I'm glad you added that. It follows the direction and speed of sea spray and foam blown by the surface winds to come up with near-surface winds. It is a truly great instrument/invention, even with its limitations.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3400 Postby tailgater » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:45 pm

Cloud tops warming again, i think that was her last hurrah. I would go with a general NNW as the NWS has call for and if it is starting to weaken it would probably take her a little farther west so I wouldn't let my guard down MSGC and Mobile.
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