ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[IvanSurvivor]

Jim Cantore is tonight in the road headed to somewhere in the gulf coast.Tommorow morning he will start to report.

Lots of folks think that if he comes to their town that's where the storm is going to hit.

I'll bet they are going to deploy to Pensacola and east to Panama City.

Heard earlier TWC would start reporting from Pensacola tomorrow. They didn't say him specifically, but we all know he loves Pcola Beach. Figured we'd see him at some point!

Voluntary evacuations in Escambia County start tomorrow at 7 am, EOC activated tomorrow at 7 am, schools closed Tomorrow and Tuesday, Santa Rosa county passing out sand bags...all this but they are still saying only gonna be a TS??? Hmmmmmm....

[stormcloud]

Also don't forget that storms wobble. Observers can mistake a wobble for actual long-term storm movement.

[attallaman]

I'm thinking the P'Cola area, there has to be a bend toward the NNE to NE south of Mobile.

Others have stated here that the North & West side of Ida is the strongest. If this is correct than a bend to the NNE-NE just south of Mobile would be the worst case scenario for this area

So if I understand what others have said tonight if Ida does go ET the strongest quadrant of the storm would be the NW one? If the storm did make landfall near Mobile instead of Pensacola and I'm in Biloxi would I receive stronger winds in my area than areas to the E of Mobile if the storm did make landfall near Mobile? I assume that would depend upon how large Ida's windfield would be at the time of landfall. Would that be correct?

[SunnyThoughts]

IvanSurvivor, you said schools are closed in escambia county...are they also closed in Santa Rosa county as well? Or do you know?

[ozonepete]

All the precipitation in the western GOM from interior Texas to central Louisiana is moving south to north. No hint of any east or north-east movement. The trough is not far enough east to cause a stearing flow that will push Ida NE any time soon. Ida is being steared by a ridge over the SE and should continue to move to the NNW to N in the short term. I'm thinking that Ida should make landfall between Mobile and Destin. Should still be a TC either a weak hurricane or strong TS.

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast......MGC

Hi MGC. But remember that the trough is moving eastward, it's not stationary, and the ridge is beginning to erode on its west side. There is a lot of play in where Ida will hit, and I think the target is now between Pensacola and the big bend. I would go more with Appalachicola than Pensacola, given the troughs progression and the NHC track being consistently too west.

[robbielyn]

If what Aric says is true does that change anything for the west coast of Florida as far as effects from Ida?

no not east enough to change wc forecast. eye just east of next nhc plot on wv it's not coming anywhere near us

[srainhoutx]

Also don't forget that storms wobble. Observers can mistake a wobble for actual long-term storm movement.

Bingo! Good to see you stormcloud.

[IvanSurvivor]

IvanSurvivor, you said schools are closed in escambia county...are they also closed in Santa Rosa county as well? Or do you know?

Didn't see that yet...scrolling across the bottom on Channel 3 during programming. State of Emergency declared (don't know if that's right now or in the morning).

[SunnyThoughts]

Thanks for the reply Ivan, quite a week in store for us considering its November lol

[hurrgrl]

Oh please, Jim Cantore, come to Mobile! Then I know we won't get the worst of Ida! (he-he)

[Blown Away]

Bam track at 00 UTC.
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 86.5W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 11KT

Looks pretty much north to me. I took heat for saying Ida was moving east of the track and I will admit I'm no expert but sometimes you need to back out and look at the wide view rather than zooming on the floater.

[smw1981]

[quote="IvanSurvivor
Voluntary evacuations in Escambia County start tomorrow at 7 am, EOC activated tomorrow at 7 am, schools closed Tomorrow and Tuesday, Santa Rosa county passing out sand bags...all this but they are still saying only gonna be a TS??? Hmmmmmm....[/quote]

In Mobile, they are saying that Baldwin Co., Escambia Co. FL and Okaloosa Co. FL schools are open tomorrow. Mobile Co. School System hasn't made a decision yet. That was on Channel 3 (ABC) and Channel 5 (CBS) both of which cover those two counties...

[DIwestender]

Jim Cantore will be in Pensacola tomorrow.

[JTE50]

Jim Cantore is tonight in the road headed to somewhere in the gulf coast.Tommorow morning he will start to report.

Lots of folks think that if he comes to their town that's where the storm is going to hit.

I'll bet they are going to deploy to Pensacola and east to Panama City.

Heard earlier TWC would start reporting from Pensacola tomorrow. They didn't say him specifically, but we all know he loves Pcola Beach. Figured we'd see him at some point!

Voluntary evacuations in Escambia County start tomorrow at 7 am, EOC activated tomorrow at 7 am, schools closed Tomorrow and Tuesday, Santa Rosa county passing out sand bags...all this but they are still saying only gonna be a TS??? Hmmmmmm....

Thanks for the info! I will call my Chinese friends and give them the heads up in Pensacola. It figures I come all the way to Guam to chase typhoons and a cane hits Pensacola!!!

[attallaman]

Cloud tops warming again, i think that was her last hurrah. I would go with a general NNW as the NWS has call for and if it is starting to weaken it would probably take her a little farther west so I wouldn't let my guard down MSGC and Mobile.

So Biloxi ain't out of the woods yet from Ida?

[deltadog03]

Derek, or anyone else, will the drops be ingested into tonights 00z model runs?

[ozonepete]

I'm thinking the P'Cola area, there has to be a bend toward the NNE to NE south of Mobile.

Others have stated here that the North & West side of Ida is the strongest. If this is correct than a bend to the NNE-NE just south of Mobile would be the worst case scenario for this area

So if I understand what others have said tonight if Ida does go ET the strongest quadrant of the storm would be the NW one? If the storm did make landfall near Mobile instead of Pensacola and I'm in Biloxi would I receive stronger winds in my area than areas to the E of Mobile if the storm did make landfall near Mobile? I assume that would depend upon how large Ida's windfield would be at the time of landfall. Would that be correct?

YEs. If it still is all tropical, and it hits east of you, you'll be on the weaker side. But if you're close to the center (within 50 miles or so) winds could be very strong, but they will be offshore from the north so you won't get a storm surge.

If it has become extratropical you will get strong winds even if it hits way east of you, but they will still be offshore, so you won't get high water.

[cycloneye]

I just saw a lady at on camera met announcing the following.TWC will have all the resources to cover Ida along the gulf coast.There will be six crews scattered along the coast.

[ravyrn]

What evacuations are in play for this storm? I'm in Lake Charles, Louisiana and feeling quite safe with the current models, but just curious as to the number of evacuations this storm will cause. I run a restaurant here in LC and just curious if I need to consider staffing up some the next few days in case we get evacuees. What are the chances this could make landfall in SE Louisiana? And also my best wishes to those of you in the Mobile Bay on eastward to the panhandle of Florida. Hope everyone is prepared, and that the storm is a very weak one, where ever it makes landfall.

[Terry]

I just saw a lady at on camera met announcing the following.TWC will have all the resources to cover Ida along the gulf coast.There will be six crews scattered along the coast.

Must be nothing else going on weather wise. lol