ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Dionne]

Cloud tops warming again, i think that was her last hurrah. I would go with a general NNW as the NWS has call for and if it is starting to weaken it would probably take her a little farther west so I wouldn't let my guard down MSGC and Mobile.

So Biloxi ain't out of the woods yet from Ida?

Wait for first visible tomorrow morning then decide. It appears to me that Biloxi is on the edge of the 70% cone from NHC.

[Ivanhater]

This from the wear 3 website

BREAKING NEWS: Escambia County, Florida - Escambia County, Florida public schools (pre-K - 12th grade) will be closed Monday and Tuesday due to the approach of hurricane Ida. Escambia County, FL declared a state of emergency Sunday evening. They are asking for voluntary evacuations along coastal areas. Bridges will be shut down if winds sustain 45 mph or more.

[srainhoutx]

IMHO, anyone in the Watch Area is not out of danger at this time. How many times have we seen changes in a normal season. It's November 8th, and in many aspects we are in a bit of uncharted territory. Guidance has not been real good beyond 6-12 hours.

[ozonepete]

The NW quadrant should have the highest winds in this scenario with the gradient the tightest there. This would likely be bad for the western Mobile side of Mobile Bay.

If it's TROPICAL, the highest winds will be on the NE or right front quadrant. Remember, even with a tight pressure gradient on the west of a northward moving storm, the left front quadrant or NW quadrant in this case has the forward speed of the storm subtracted from the average winds. The right front quadrant adds the forward speed.

[robbielyn]

is there a thread where we can guess where the storm is going to landfall? I am guessing panama city or just west of there.

[deltadog03]

looks like clouds are slightly warming outside of the eyewall. But, it appears the eyewall and around there is starting to show some new colder clouds building. IF** that continues I expect we are going to do the same thing that we did when this last burst started 4 hours ago.

[dixiebreeze]

About 64 miles south of Dauphin Island, Alabama: 29.60 pressure

Observations - Radial Search
Observations near Hurricane Ida - position as of 11/09 0000 GMT
Distance is entered as nautical miles or kilometers depending on whether you choose English or Metric.

Latitude: (e.g. 30.5N or 30 30 0 N or 30 30 N)

Longitude: (e.g. 90W or 90 0 0 W or 90 0 W)

Unit of Measure: English Metric Distance (nautical miles/kilometers):

Observation Type: All Moored Buoy Ship/Drifting Buoy Time: current t-1 hour past hour t-2 hours past 2 hours t-3 hours past 3 hours t-4 hours past 4 hours t-5 hours past 5 hours t-6 hours past 6 hours t-7 hours past 7 hours t-8 hours past 8 hours t-9 hours past 9 hours t-10 hours past 10 hours t-11 hours past 11 hours t-12 hours past 12 hours t-13 hours t-14 hours t-15 hours t-16 hours t-17 hours t-18 hours t-19 hours t-20 hours t-21 hours t-22 hours t-23 hours


Not All Stations Depicted are Operated by the National Data Buoy Center.

3 observations from 11/08/2009 2300 GMT to 11/09/2009 0202 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F °F nmi 8th ft ft sec °T ft sec °T Acc Ice ft sec ft sec
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0000 23.10 -85.60 50 90 90 46.0 - 14.8 12.0 - - 29.60 -0.06 77.9 78.8 - 0.5 9 - 16.4 9.0 90 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SHIP S 0000 24.80 -84.70 142 44 110 36.9 - 6.6 4.0 - - 29.82 +0.05 75.9 - - 5 8 - 14.8 10.0 110 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
SHIP S 0000 25.40 -85.70 145 17 70 35.0 - 16.4 - - - 29.87 -0.01 76.1 81.3 72.3 5 8 - - - VRB - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
3 observations reported for 0000 GMT

1 B = Buoy, C = C-MAN Station, D = Drifting Buoy, S = Ship, O = Other

[attallaman]

Cloud tops warming again, i think that was her last hurrah. I would go with a general NNW as the NWS has call for and if it is starting to weaken it would probably take her a little farther west so I wouldn't let my guard down MSGC and Mobile.

So Biloxi ain't out of the woods yet from Ida?

Wait for first visible tomorrow morning then decide. It appears to me that Biloxi is on the edge of the 70% cone from NHC.

Thanks for the information and please forgive me for asking, "Biloxi is on the edge of the 70% cone from the NHC". What exactly do you mean? That there's a 70% chance of Ida making landfall near Biloxi?

[Ivanhater]

[deltadog03]

Ivan, have you noticed that on the latest IR pics that the core/eye wall/ is starting to show some new colder clouds going up?

[attallaman]

looks like clouds are slightly warming outside of the eyewall. But, it appears the eyewall and around there is starting to show some new colder clouds building. IF** that continues I expect we are going to do the same thing that we did when this last burst started 4 hours ago.

Cloudtops warming, cloudtops cooling, what does that mean? If the cloudtops are warming does that mean a stronger or a weaker system?

[Blown Away]

Is the whole cloud field starting to get elongated?

[Javlin]

looks like clouds are slightly warming outside of the eyewall. But, it appears the eyewall and around there is starting to show some new colder clouds building. IF** that continues I expect we are going to do the same thing that we did when this last burst started 4 hours ago.

Cloudtops warming, cloudtops cooling, what does that mean? If the cloudtops are warming does that mean a stronger or a weaker system?

warming = decrease
cooling = increase

[Evil Jeremy]

looks like clouds are slightly warming outside of the eyewall. But, it appears the eyewall and around there is starting to show some new colder clouds building. IF** that continues I expect we are going to do the same thing that we did when this last burst started 4 hours ago.

Cloudtops warming, cloudtops cooling, what does that mean? If the cloudtops are warming does that mean a stronger or a weaker system?

Generally warming cloudtops indicate weakening, and colder ones indicate strengthening.

[Over my head]

Thanks so much for the answers to my question about SMRF, pojo and JTE50. This place is the greatest for learning and for the wonderful peeps.

Lynn

Lyn, As the plane flies through a storm, the SFMR detects microwave radiation naturally emitted from foam created on the sea by winds at the surface. Computers then determine wind speeds based on the levels of microwave radiation detected. I think early on when it was first deployed it was not right on the money and with time it has been tweaked to give a pretty accurate wind reading. In 2005 only the NOAA P3s had the SFMR, now the Air Force WC-130s have them too.

Hi JTE! I'm glad you added that. It follows the direction and speed of sea spray and foam blown by the surface winds to come up with near-surface winds. It is a truly great instrument/invention, even with its limitations.

Glad someone asked! I looked in the acronym definitions but it didn't give too much detail. Another question I have is about the dropsonde that is in the pic on the link you posted pojo. Are they tethered and get pulled back in to "read" or gone forever and read remotely? Just wondering if there are millions down there somewhere at the bottom of the sea waiting to be discovered by Jacques Cousteau and the Calypso.

[Javlin]

Is the whole cloud field starting to get elongated?

slightly and it usually gives a hint of direction for a while.

[seaswing]

IvanSurvivor, you said schools are closed in escambia county...are they also closed in Santa Rosa county as well? Or do you know?

Didn't see that yet...scrolling across the bottom on Channel 3 during programming. State of Emergency declared (don't know if that's right now or in the morning).

It's a protocol and Standard Operating Procedure thing. SOE is probably activated now in that part of FL. SOE's have to be initialized before any closings of schools, city, county, government offices can be closed. That way everyone is on the same page.

[deltadog03]

Sorry, yes they pretty much hit the nail on the head when answering that for yall.

[nashrobertsx]

Someone start posting the 0Z models, please.
The NAM takes it to ala-fla border

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

looks like clouds are slightly warming outside of the eyewall. But, it appears the eyewall and around there is starting to show some new colder clouds building. IF** that continues I expect we are going to do the same thing that we did when this last burst started 4 hours ago.

Cloudtops warming, cloudtops cooling, what does that mean? If the cloudtops are warming does that mean a stronger or a weaker system?

The lower the clouds the warmer they are the weaker the thunderstorms the weaker the system could be. The Higher the clouds the colder they are the more intense the thunderstorms the stronger the storm.