ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[ozonepete]

looks like clouds are slightly warming outside of the eyewall. But, it appears the eyewall and around there is starting to show some new colder clouds building. IF** that continues I expect we are going to do the same thing that we did when this last burst started 4 hours ago.

Cloudtops warming, cloudtops cooling, what does that mean? If the cloudtops are warming does that mean a stronger or a weaker system?

Cloudtops warming means weakening. Cloudtops cooling means strengthening.

[Cuber]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

They just re-painted the water tower in Pensacola .... seems they last painted the water tower back in 2004. Sounds like a valid landfall point to me.

Please be smart and stay safe all of you on the northern gulf coast. South Florida prayers are with you.

[JTE50]

This from the wear 3 website

BREAKING NEWS: Escambia County, Florida - Escambia County, Florida public schools (pre-K - 12th grade) will be closed Monday and Tuesday due to the approach of hurricane Ida. Escambia County, FL declared a state of emergency Sunday evening. They are asking for voluntary evacuations along coastal areas. Bridges will be shut down if winds sustain 45 mph or more.

45mph? Sheesh! For a typhoon in the Philippines they don't shut down anything and you can go anywhere you want - at your own risk of course!

[Javlin]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

They just re-painted the water tower in Pensacola .... seems they last painted the water tower back in 2004. Sounds like a valid landfall point to me.

Please be smart and stay safe all of you on the northern gulf coast. South Florida prayers are with you.

Now that I call a forcast makes sense

[dixiebreeze]

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Conditions at 42023 as of
(8:30 pm EST on 11/08/2009)
0130 GMT on 11/09/2009: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4] USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5] USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6] USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12]
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[succubus]

This from the wear 3 website

BREAKING NEWS: Escambia County, Florida - Escambia County, Florida public schools (pre-K - 12th grade) will be closed Monday and Tuesday due to the approach of hurricane Ida. Escambia County, FL declared a state of emergency Sunday evening. They are asking for voluntary evacuations along coastal areas. Bridges will be shut down if winds sustain 45 mph or more.

45mph? Sheesh! For a typhoon in the Philippines they don't shut down anything and you can go anywhere you want - at your own risk of course!

It's mostly because of the school buses. It's unsafe for them to operate in winds over 25 or 30 mph, can't remember which. So if half the kids in the school ride the bus, half your students will be out because they won't run the buses. So instead of having so many kids out, they just cancel school. However in some areas private schools will remain open for day care and other services.

[attallaman]

The NW quadrant should have the highest winds in this scenario with the gradient the tightest there. This would likely be bad for the western Mobile side of Mobile Bay.

If it's TROPICAL, the highest winds will be on the NE or right front quadrant. Remember, even with a tight pressure gradient on the west of a northward moving storm, the left front quadrant or NW quadrant in this case has the forward speed of the storm subtracted from the average winds. The right front quadrant adds the forward speed.

I'm located about 3 miles N of the beach so storm surge wasn't a problem for me during Katrina, the winds in my neighborhood were the problem so are you saying that's it's possible for my area to receive some strong winds coming from the NE to the SW if Ida did make landfall to my E near Mobile if the storm did became ET? Is the L that came out of the BOC still a factor tonight in where Ida will eventually track or is it going to just move into SE TX and SW/SC LA and give those areas copius(sp?) amounts of rain?

[Bruton]

Can anyone tell me why a Cat 2 does not have an eye on satellite, when much weaker system did have at some point?

[ozonepete]

Look at that dry air over Florida, especially central Florida (dewpoints in green). Unless this air moistens up in a hurry from transport over the Gulf waters, there could be more weakening tomorrow than forecast.

[attallaman]

Someone start posting the 0Z models, please.
The NAM takes it to ala-fla border

As a CAT 1?

[baygirl_1]

This from the wear 3 website

BREAKING NEWS: Escambia County, Florida - Escambia County, Florida public schools (pre-K - 12th grade) will be closed Monday and Tuesday due to the approach of hurricane Ida. Escambia County, FL declared a state of emergency Sunday evening. They are asking for voluntary evacuations along coastal areas. Bridges will be shut down if winds sustain 45 mph or more.

45mph? Sheesh! For a typhoon in the Philippines they don't shut down anything and you can go anywhere you want - at your own risk of course!

It's mostly because of the school buses. It's unsafe for them to operate in winds over 25 or 30 mph, can't remember which. So if half the kids in the school ride the bus, half your students will be out because they won't run the buses. So instead of having so many kids out, they just cancel school. However in some areas private schools will remain open for day care and other services.

Also, there's the rising water. Mobile County, AL has NOT closed schools, yet, but we have a school on Dauphin Island and several in the Bayou La Batre area. Those areas will be affected by coastal flooding before the rest of the county. We'll see what they decide to do about those.

[ozonepete]

Can anyone tell me why a Cat 2 does not have an eye on satellite, when much weaker system did have at some point?

There are strong southerly winds at the upper levels, and they are blowing cirrus clouds over the eye.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm thinking the P'Cola area, there has to be a bend toward the NNE to NE south of Mobile.

Others have stated here that the North & West side of Ida is the strongest. If this is correct than a bend to the NNE-NE just south of Mobile would be the worst case scenario for this area

So if I understand what others have said tonight if Ida does go ET the strongest quadrant of the storm would be the NW one? If the storm did make landfall near Mobile instead of Pensacola and I'm in Biloxi would I receive stronger winds in my area than areas to the E of Mobile if the storm did make landfall near Mobile? I assume that would depend upon how large Ida's windfield would be at the time of landfall. Would that be correct?

It is not going to matter tropical or non tropical, the front coming in from the NW with the strong High behind it is the reason for the NW side seeing the strongest winds in this scenario. Most of the time the highest winds are in the NE Quad and they are currently with Ida. But once near landfall the squeeze will be on as Ida bumps into the higher pressure rushing in from the north, therefore the pressure gradient will be strongest on the NW side of this storm as that begins to occur.

So yes, whoever is just to the NW of Ida or directly under her center will see some of the strongest winds as she passes and the high pressure rushes in, the pressure gradient will be strongest there.

[deltadog03]

I think we all have to realize that we can't treat this cane as a normal time/summer time cane. There is going to be many different things that we don't see in summer. Those td's that are in the low to mid 60's arent bad for this time of year. There is some fairly cool air at 10k near IDA. The low temps at flight level prove that as well as HAIL in the N quad.

[attallaman]

looks like clouds are slightly warming outside of the eyewall. But, it appears the eyewall and around there is starting to show some new colder clouds building. IF** that continues I expect we are going to do the same thing that we did when this last burst started 4 hours ago.

Cloudtops warming, cloudtops cooling, what does that mean? If the cloudtops are warming does that mean a stronger or a weaker system?

Generally warming cloudtops indicate weakening, and colder ones indicate strengthening.

Thanks for that info.

[ozonepete]

I think we all have to realize that we can't treat this cane as a normal time/summer time cane. There is going to be many different things that we don't see in summer. Those td's that are in the low to mid 60's arent bad for this time of year. There is come fairly cool air at 10k near IDA. The low temps at flight level prove that as well as HAIL in the N quad.

great point about the Hail. You obviously know your mesoscale.

[Dean4Storms]

[/quote]

Others have stated here that the North & West side of Ida is the strongest. If this is correct than a bend to the NNE-NE just south of Mobile would be the worst case scenario for this area[/quote]So if I understand what others have said tonight if Ida does go ET the strongest quadrant of the storm would be the NW one? If the storm did make landfall near Mobile instead of Pensacola and I'm in Biloxi would I receive stronger winds in my area than areas to the E of Mobile if the storm did make landfall near Mobile? I assume that would depend upon how large Ida's windfield would be at the time of landfall. Would that be correct?[/quote]

It is not going to matter tropical or non tropical, the front coming in from the NW with the strong High behind it is the reason for the NW side seeing the strongest winds in this scenario. Most of the time the highest winds are in the NE Quad and they are currently with Ida. But once near landfall the squeeze will be on as Ida bumps into the higher pressure rushing in from the north, therefore the pressure gradient will be strongest on the NW side of this storm as that begins to occur.

So yes, whoever is just to the NW of Ida or directly under her center will see some of the strongest winds as she passes and the high pressure rushes in, the pressure gradient will be strongest there.[/quote]

I should have included, so long as the front has caught Ida, which that is a ? right now!

[Blown Away]

This from the wear 3 website

BREAKING NEWS: Escambia County, Florida - Escambia County, Florida public schools (pre-K - 12th grade) will be closed Monday and Tuesday due to the approach of hurricane Ida. Escambia County, FL declared a state of emergency Sunday evening. They are asking for voluntary evacuations along coastal areas. Bridges will be shut down if winds sustain 45 mph or more.

45mph? Sheesh! For a typhoon in the Philippines they don't shut down anything and you can go anywhere you want - at your own risk of course!

These days w/ so many folks living along the coast I guess it's better to error on the safe side. But I can remember back 30 years ago when David came through it seemed the whole town was at the beach during the eye and the local restaurant/pub was serving food. Winds were gusting in the 90mph range. Times have changed and it's part of the media machine.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at that dry air over Florida, especially central Florida (dewpoints in green). Unless this air moistens up in a hurry from transport over the Gulf waters, there could be more weakening tomorrow than forecast.

in normal circumstances yes.. but there is a old boundary running NW to SE across the eastern gulf. this boundary is one of the reason IDA has not ingested dry air thus far. the boundary should remain. and will eventually lift back across florida after ida makes landfall which should finally bring the rain back across the state..

[smw1981]

Also, there's the rising water. Mobile County, AL has NOT closed schools, yet, but we have a school on Dauphin Island and several in the Bayou La Batre area. Those areas will be affected by coastal flooding before the rest of the county. We'll see what they decide to do about those.[/quote]

They will close them (in Mobile Co.) if a Hurricane Warning is issued. What would suck is if one is issued in the middle of the night (I would guess they will issue one at midnight for us), and all of the parents wake up in the morning and have nothing to do with their children for the day because they still have to go to work. We have already called the parents from my school just to give them the heads up...

As of 7pm, Baldwin Co. schools were to be open tomorrow, although that may change if a Hurricane Warning is issued...

Anyways, that is what Mobile Co. is waiting on to decide...