ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

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wxman57
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Re:

#3501 Postby wxman57 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:00 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Speed is up too 14 mph now.


Just calculating forward speed from the NHC 21Z to the 03Z position, I get 20 mph at 348 deg. I notice that they moved up landfall by 6-8 hours on this advisory. Now inland by sunrise Tuesday. Could be even earlier.
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Re: Re:

#3502 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:00 pm

JTE50 wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Apparently SANTA ROSA county schools will be open tomorrow, and a decision will be made tomorrow concerning possible closure Tuesday.


I would think that if you are a teacher and live on the Santa Rosa Island you would need a day to put your shutters up and secure it, given it's night time there right now. That's cutting it pretty close given the forecast track. I think Escambia Co is doing the smart thing by closing schools Mon & Tue. :) Better to keep the kids home than let them out at 12.


The wise thing as now a hurricane warning is up for that area.
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Re: Re:

#3503 Postby Bruton » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:00 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
Bruton wrote:Ivanhater,

Is that face you have as your avatar, your reaction to this storm headed your way?


Lol yes. I was trying to get my 1 year old niece to look up and take a picture


That's right Mike ;)

Get ready for the storm!
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA - Advisories

#3504 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:02 pm

Indian Pass is located in Gulf County, between Apalachicola and Port St. Joe. It's an hour east of Panama City and a half-hour more from South Walton (Grayton Beach, Seaside, Watercolor and Rosemary Beach).
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#3505 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:02 pm

I just love the Euro thats really funny... lol
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA - Advisories

#3506 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:03 pm

Discussion came out late.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 090301
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THE
AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE HURRICANE JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC. DURING THE
LAST COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 108 KT AND A SFMR SURFACE WIND
OF 84 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT. ANOTHER AIR
FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH IDA AROUND 0600 UTC.

THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES PROVIDE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT INITIAL
MOTION OF 345/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. IDA IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TRACK MODELS
APPEAR TO BE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE 12Z RUNS OF
THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE AND SHOW A TRACK NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE
FASTER. AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THE MODELS
TURN IDA EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT...BUT DOES NOT SHOW AS SHARP A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES. THE AIR FORCE ALSO FLEW A SURVEILLANCE
MISSION AROUND AND NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT
DATA SHOULD BE ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODELS.

IDA IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS...AND MOVE INTO A
COOLER AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IT WILL ALSO
LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING
MORE LIKELY THAT IDA WILL RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
THROUGH LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND ALL SHOW IDA AROUND HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE
CYCLONE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. THIS HAS REQUIRED
THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0300Z 23.7N 86.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 25.8N 87.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 28.5N 87.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 30.5N 87.1W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 11/0000Z 31.2N 85.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 12/0000Z 30.5N 82.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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Re: Re:

#3507 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Speed is up too 14 mph now.


Just calculating forward speed from the NHC 21Z to the 03Z position, I get 20 mph at 348 deg. I notice that they moved up landfall by 6-8 hours on this advisory. Now inland by sunrise Tuesday. Could be even earlier.

Ya, it appears we might be just under or right at 24 hrs from landfall. WXman would agree that this would increase the chances of this being a cane at landfall?
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Re:

#3508 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I just love the Euro thats really funny... lol
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html


The last gasp of the looping theory, LOL. :)
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3509 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:17 pm

Aric, you are the undisputed master of satellite interpretation. What the heck is going on on the eastern side?
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Re: Re:

#3510 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:18 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I just love the Euro thats really funny... lol
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html


The last gasp of the looping theory, LOL. :)


Hey guys,I think you didnt see the ultimate entretainment in looping as UKMET does.Enjoy!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
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#3511 Postby bayoubebe » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:21 pm

Hmm, the schools are closing early tomorrow in our parish here in SE Louisiana. I wonder if that's premature?
I know, better safe, than sorry, but it appears this is going more east of us.
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#3512 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:24 pm

If that track verifies or if it comes east by 50 miles especially I'm in for a rough ride! I'm a mile from the ocean as a bird flies and 300 yds from the Bay! :eek:

Not liking this at all, all my Citrus fruit will be on the ground or all over the neighbors houses come Wed!!
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3513 Postby JTE50 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:24 pm

tolakram wrote:Image


I can't seem to find Pensacola on that map . . .
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3514 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:26 pm

ozonepete wrote:Aric, you are the undisputed master of satellite interpretation. What the heck is going on on the eastern side?


some dry air maybe around, or its a dynamical issue... not sure really.. let me think about it.. lol
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Re: Re:

#3515 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I just love the Euro thats really funny... lol
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html


The last gasp of the looping theory, LOL. :)


Hey guys,I think you didnt see the ultimate entretainment in looping as UKMET does.Enjoy!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation



Yes, LOL!!! Talk about lost in the sauce.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3516 Postby LSU2001 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:28 pm

Lafourche Parish Schools are closed tomorrow. Janitors, and Administrators must report.
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3517 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:29 pm

Image
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#3518 Postby Dave » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:31 pm

AF 304 is sitting on the runway..next recon mission into Ida is about to start...

URNT15 KNHC 090323
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 01 20091109
031530 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0167 +195 +114 360000 000 999 999 23
031600 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0167 +195 +114 360000 000 999 999 23
031630 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0167 +195 +114 360000 000 999 999 23
031700 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0167 +195 +114 360000 000 999 999 23
031730 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0168 +195 +113 360000 000 999 999 23
031800 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0168 +195 +113 360000 000 999 999 23
031830 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0168 +195 +113 360000 000 999 999 23
031900 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0168 +195 +113 360000 000 999 999 23
031930 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0168 +195 +113 360000 000 999 999 23
032000 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0168 +195 +113 360000 000 999 999 23
032030 3024N 08855W 0186 00000 0169 +198 +114 360000 000 999 999 23
032100 3024N 08855W 0187 00000 0169 +201 +114 360000 000 999 999 23
032130 3024N 08855W 0187 00000 0169 +200 +115 360000 000 999 999 23
032200 3024N 08855W 0187 00000 0169 +200 +116 360000 000 999 999 23
032230 3024N 08855W 0187 00000 0169 +200 +117 360000 000 999 999 23
032300 3024N 08855W 0187 00000 0169 +200 +117 360000 000 999 999 23
032330 3024N 08855W 0187 00000 0169 +200 +118 360000 000 999 999 23
032400 3024N 08855W 0187 00000 0169 +200 +119 360000 000 999 999 23
032430 3024N 08855W 0187 00000 0168 +200 +120 360000 000 999 999 23
032500 3024N 08855W 0185 00000 0167 +206 +120 360000 000 999 999 23
$$
;
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3519 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Aric, you are the undisputed master of satellite interpretation. What the heck is going on on the eastern side?


some dry air maybe around, or its a dynamical issue... not sure really.. let me think about it.. lol


The center is pretty much dead center in the convection.. slight to the right side though, so as before the the eye probably closed or open on the east. would have to say maybe something to do with the old surface boundary to its east maybe inhibiting some in-flow. its hard to says really I dont have the answer right now. I will look around I guess .. lol

the dynamical possibility is that its forward motion is creating some greater convergence on the front left and the east side is left to catch up, that seems unlikely though cause lots of system have moved faster than this but maintained convection all around.
convection is maintaining quite well though everywhere else. .
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Re: Re:

#3520 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I just love the Euro thats really funny... lol
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html


The last gasp of the looping theory, LOL. :)


Hey guys,I think you didnt see the ultimate entretainment in looping as UKMET does.Enjoy!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation



yeah that is umm .. very hurricane gordon stuff there except slight farther east... lol

Image
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