ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[JTE50]

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore is in Pensacola Beach now.

Confirmed?

We might know for sure if TWC actually reported weather instead of Storm Stories or March of the Penguins, etc.

Well, you'll definitely get a whole lot of storm coverage now! I don't like movies on TWC either. It's probably a decision from the new owner - NBC Universal.

[bayoubebe]

I guess the Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA hasn't caught up with the latest yet....

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Long+Beach&state=MS&site=LIX&textField1=30.362&textField2=-89.1673&e=0

More school closings in SE LA. I don't know, at this point, if that should have been a necessity.

[attallaman]

Here's a good take on it. Mobile's forecast based on the NHC forecast of landfall around P'Cola. Note the wind directions!

.MONDAY NIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH BECOMING 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 70 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY IN THE MORNING
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTH WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH BECOMING 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 50 PERCENT.

Where did you get that info? From the NWS website or the NHC website? I'd like to see what Biloxi-Gulfport has to say about Ida unless it's the NWS office in Slidell, LA or NOLA that issues press releases for Biloxi-Gulfport, MS region.

[Aric Dunn]

I like your thoughts. It could very well be that it's a combination of two of the things you said. That the old surface boundary is inhibiting some inflow AND the better convergence on the left front is leaving the right side to periodically catch up. It's done it twice now in the last 24 hours, which is pretty impressive in itself. Thanks for taking the time to mull it over. I really just have to say that you keep calling future movements and strengths that a lot of people disagree with but you get proved right almost every time. Notice I said "almost". hehe

hehe well nobody can be right all the time .. hehe

[PTPatrick]

Things look much better for LA and MS now. Understandably eastern portions of MS could still be for some bad weather, possible hurricane force gust, but nothing brings it to west of Mobile bay now. At least the parents wont need to evac for surge this time around.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 090353
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 04 20091109
034530 3007N 08912W 5239 05478 0248 -104 -160 147027 028 999 999 03
034600 3005N 08912W 5135 05631 0254 -095 -126 157028 031 999 999 03
034630 3004N 08912W 4969 05879 0250 -090 -115 167037 038 999 999 03
034700 3002N 08912W 4862 06058 0268 -095 -118 172040 041 999 999 03
034730 3001N 08912W 4787 06179 0286 -100 -119 172042 042 999 999 03
034800 2959N 08912W 4693 06333 0296 -111 -128 170040 041 999 999 03
034830 2957N 08912W 4617 06460 0302 -119 -137 168040 040 999 999 03
034900 2956N 08912W 4555 06558 0302 -126 -145 165041 041 999 999 03
034930 2954N 08912W 4485 06673 0310 -131 -145 165042 043 999 999 03
035000 2953N 08912W 4404 06822 0321 -140 -140 168043 044 999 999 03
035030 2951N 08912W 4343 06927 0327 -146 -146 172045 045 999 999 03
035100 2949N 08912W 4274 07047 0334 -152 -152 178045 045 999 999 03
035130 2949N 08912W 4274 07047 0340 -159 -159 185045 045 999 999 03
035200 2946N 08912W 4163 07245 0346 -167 -167 187044 045 999 999 03
035230 2945N 08912W 4116 07327 0351 -172 -172 188043 044 999 999 03
035300 2943N 08912W 4076 07405 0354 -178 -178 188042 044 999 999 03
035330 2941N 08912W 4020 07510 0363 -186 +999 189042 043 999 999 05
035400 2940N 08912W 3993 07565 0368 -190 +999 190041 042 999 999 05
035430 2938N 08912W 4019 07513 0364 -188 +999 191041 042 999 999 05
035500 2936N 08912W 4052 07449 0357 -184 -184 188040 041 999 999 05
$$
;

[JTE50]

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore is in Pensacola Beach now.

Then Pensacola should be quite assured that Ida is not going to hit Pensacola...lol (j/k)

Yeah, this is very funny!

Years ago, Cantore was always in the wrong spot for the worst of the storm, then about 2003 he seemed to always be in the right spot. Go figure!
I think it's good to have a network in your area covering the storm though.

[Aric Dunn]

Seriously the 00z GFS just completely kills the mid atlantic.. 996 mb low off VA with winds probably near hurricane force.. I think i see some 50kt wind vectors in there..

then it drops it south as before.. going to be a crazy week of havoc along the east coast..

another storm of the century maybe.. ??


990 mb at 90 hrs off hatteras

[Emmett_Brown]

0z GFS is also just a bit east of 18z. Pretty much shows a due N motion from now until landfall. Has been trending ever so slightly east on each run, so makes me wonder if the east trend is over. Right now, Western panhandle seems most likely, but wonder if the FL big bend is still a possibility.

[JonathanBelles]

The 403rd has evacuated:

http://www.403wg.afrc.af.mil/news/story ... =123176728

[PTPatrick]

School closings in LA seem reasonable I guess. ITs highly likely that plaquemines and st. bernard will feel TS winds and surges, even a "small" 5-6 ft surge can trap folks in those parishes outside of the levee system. the MS counties will most likely not close, with the exception being possibly Moss Point and Pascagoula schools in far eastern Jackson County.

[deltadog03]

Aric, looks like storms are starting to fire again near the center. Clouds are starting to cool around there again. What you seeing? dry air is slowly being pushed out it seems

[Emmett_Brown]

What I am fuzzy on is the potential affect to the SE Atl coast. With the transition to ET, wondering if we will see strong winds from Daytona N to Charleston, then spreading N with the formation of the coastal low. Not sure... don't have a good feel for it, since the mid atlantic low seems like a totally new entity on the GFS.

[AdamFirst]

What would a loop bring in terms of weather to the lower peninsula? I understand it won't be anywhere near from what the Gulf coast is going to get, but if the extratropical low cruises down the spine of the peninsula, I guess we'll potentially see severe weather?

[IvanSurvivor]

When a storm surge estimate is given, does the high tide amount get added on top of that or is it figured in already. For example is the storm surge is estimated at 5 ft and it happens to come in a little early at high tide...tides running a little high, maybe 2-3 ft...would the total be 5 ft or 7-8 ft?

[PTPatrick]

Aric, looks like storms are starting to fire again near the center. Clouds are starting to cool around there again. What you seeing? dry air is slowly being pushed out it seems

LOL...Ida's demise has been called about 3 times so far today...I will believe it tomorrow

[Emmett_Brown]

Aric, looks like storms are starting to fire again near the center. Clouds are starting to cool around there again. What you seeing? dry air is slowly being pushed out it seems

Does seem a bit asymmetric, but holding its own. Looks a lot like last night. Maybe another round of intensification over night, but probably just enough to maintain it. Delta, any guesses about affects on the NE Fl, GA and SC coasts?

[Evil Jeremy]

It's probably a decision from the new owner - NBC Universal.

I wonder if that decision will change when NBC meets its new owner: Comcast. Hopefully it does. I love programing like Storm Stories, but they should keep it to a minimum.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 090404
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 05 20091109
035530 2934N 08912W 4087 07381 0351 -176 +999 186038 039 999 999 05
035600 2932N 08912W 4101 07357 0349 -173 +999 184040 041 999 999 05
035630 2931N 08912W 4102 07351 0348 -174 +999 184043 045 999 999 05
035700 2929N 08912W 4098 07358 0346 -175 +999 185046 046 999 999 05
035730 2927N 08912W 4099 07353 0345 -175 +999 186045 046 999 999 05
035800 2925N 08912W 4099 07362 0349 -178 +999 187043 044 999 999 05
035830 2923N 08912W 4098 07361 0348 -180 -180 190042 043 999 999 05
035900 2921N 08912W 4098 07349 0334 -180 -290 185041 041 999 999 03
035930 2919N 08912W 4098 07319 0317 -180 -428 187041 042 999 999 03
040000 2917N 08912W 4100 07329 0315 -180 -483 188040 041 999 999 03
040030 2915N 08912W 4098 07322 0310 -180 -509 189039 040 999 999 03
040100 2913N 08912W 4097 07359 0345 -179 -519 185040 042 999 999 03
040130 2911N 08912W 4099 07354 0349 -175 -524 186039 040 999 999 03
040200 2909N 08912W 4099 07362 0348 -176 -525 184040 041 999 999 03
040230 2907N 08912W 4100 07352 0344 -176 -458 186039 041 999 999 03
040300 2905N 08912W 4098 07357 0344 -176 -217 187040 041 999 999 05
040330 2903N 08912W 4097 07373 0354 -176 +999 185041 042 999 999 05
040400 2901N 08912W 4099 07368 0359 -175 +999 185039 040 999 999 05
040430 2859N 08912W 4098 07370 0359 -175 -185 185038 039 999 999 03
040500 2857N 08912W 4099 07368 0359 -176 -188 179038 039 999 999 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, looks like storms are starting to fire again near the center. Clouds are starting to cool around there again. What you seeing? dry air is slowly being pushed out it seems

yeah there is some dry air around but to its west its being held off by that trough and to the east the old boundary is hold that back but I sure its has ingested some periodically...also as this accelerates over night and tomorrow it could also get some baroclinic enhancement too tomorrow. similar to hurricane bill back in 1997 ( right click save link location) ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/hursat/ ... 90-BIL.mpg