ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Kingarabian]

Damn, I know Hurricanes can be devastating, but there is alot of excitement! Wish we had something here in Hawaii to talk about.

Edit: Is there going to be another recon anytime soon?

[PTPatrick]

I agree...its only a matter of time before due north will commence, but it still pretty much NNW fromt he looks of things...and holding some cold cloud tops around the center still.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 090513
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 12 20091109
050530 2512N 08753W 6967 03158 0092 +072 +010 099037 038 027 007 00
050600 2511N 08752W 6965 03160 0090 +073 +011 092039 040 027 006 00
050630 2510N 08750W 6975 03147 0088 +075 +011 092042 042 029 006 00
050700 2509N 08749W 6967 03156 0090 +072 +012 094039 042 030 006 00
050730 2508N 08748W 6963 03169 0091 +073 +013 096034 037 026 006 03
050800 2506N 08747W 6967 03152 0079 +078 +013 093030 030 030 006 00
050830 2504N 08747W 6969 03154 0080 +075 +014 095031 032 029 008 00
050900 2503N 08746W 6966 03154 0082 +072 +014 093030 030 029 008 00
050930 2501N 08745W 6970 03151 0066 +084 +015 097025 026 028 007 00
051000 2500N 08745W 6973 03144 0065 +084 +016 105028 029 028 006 00
051030 2458N 08744W 6965 03155 0069 +081 +018 105032 035 031 005 00
051100 2457N 08744W 6963 03155 0066 +082 +018 109036 037 033 005 00
051130 2455N 08743W 6969 03144 0062 +085 +018 105034 034 034 005 00
051200 2454N 08743W 6968 03145 0061 +084 +019 101034 035 035 005 00
051230 2452N 08742W 6966 03144 0058 +084 +019 097032 033 033 003 00
051300 2450N 08742W 6966 03143 0051 +089 +020 087036 038 035 003 00
051330 2449N 08741W 6969 03141 0050 +086 +021 084039 040 037 003 00
051400 2447N 08741W 6965 03142 0046 +089 +022 079042 042 038 004 00
051430 2445N 08740W 6968 03135 0043 +088 +023 077042 042 040 004 00
051500 2444N 08740W 6966 03133 0030 +095 +023 073043 046 039 007 00
$$
;

[jasons2k]

It's quite amazing to me we may indeed have a landfalling hurricane on the northern gulf coast this late in the season.

Can't help but chuckle when I read through some of this when future Ida was showing-up on the models:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=106928&start=0

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Damn, I know Hurricanes can be devastating, but there is alot of excitement! Wish we had something here in Hawaii to talk about.

Edit: Is there going to be another recon anytime soon?

Recon is on its way now. in fact they are just starting their first pass through

[Dave]

[Sanibel]

Looks like Ida slowly worked up to 105mph after passing over the high Caribbean SST's and shooting the Yucatan Channel. Probably close to max intensity for conditions.

The trough in the west Gulf is somewhat vertical and not pushing too hard east which allowed Ida to track north unimpeded.

Shear pulled back a little in front of it after all.

Should be a good chaser hurricane.

Ida's outer rainbands 75 miles to our west.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 090523
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 13 20091109
051530 2442N 08739W 6969 03126 0033 +090 +023 077037 040 041 010 00
051600 2440N 08739W 6969 03129 0018 +101 +023 093026 028 041 008 00
051630 2439N 08738W 6966 03141 0031 +094 +023 104024 027 045 008 03
051700 2437N 08738W 6964 03126 0018 +098 +023 100030 033 049 004 00
051730 2435N 08738W 6967 03122 0005 +107 +024 085022 025 050 003 00
051800 2433N 08739W 6973 03110 0002 +106 +025 061018 020 051 002 00
051830 2432N 08739W 6963 03121 9993 +110 +027 060022 024 049 001 00
051900 2430N 08739W 6966 03116 9985 +121 +029 051022 023 052 003 03
051930 2428N 08738W 6965 03111 9962 +129 +032 042022 024 053 005 03
052000 2427N 08737W 6967 03105 9975 +118 +034 038025 026 052 010 03
052030 2427N 08735W 6965 03099 9953 +122 +035 022027 033 060 015 00
052100 2426N 08733W 6937 03101 9971 +088 +033 323010 020 061 019 00
052130 2426N 08731W 6951 03098 9913 +143 +029 249008 015 046 008 03
052200 2426N 08729W 6975 03069 9933 +124 +028 161018 021 041 005 00
052230 2426N 08727W 6968 03074 9920 +133 +029 161019 022 039 004 00
052300 2426N 08725W 6967 03078 9929 +127 +031 157021 025 043 003 00
052330 2426N 08723W 6966 03077 9924 +130 +032 155026 027 047 002 00
052400 2426N 08722W 6966 03077 9916 +137 +033 161026 027 050 003 00
052430 2425N 08720W 6970 03072 9913 +140 +034 162030 034 052 002 00
052500 2425N 08718W 6958 03086 9911 +142 +035 171038 042 056 002 00
$$
;

[PTPatrick]

0z Canadian is in...still landfallish over SE LA but pushes the sfc low back south in the gulf, In all likelyhood that would probably not be much a surface low as teh energy would get absorbed. Either way funny how much further west than everything else it is.

[Aric Dunn]

ok something seems fishy here .. pressure 992 fl 20kts. sfmr 60kts.. that odd.. lol

[smw1981]

I agree...its only a matter of time before due north will commence, but it still pretty much NNW fromt he looks of things...and holding some cold cloud tops around the center still.

Sorry for the newbie question, but what are you looking at to see this? Thanks!

[PTPatrick]

0z GFDL further east. a hair...landfall FT walton and basically due east over Tallahassee from there.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 090533
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 14 20091109
052530 2425N 08716W 6970 03076 9918 +140 +036 176051 055 056 001 00
052600 2425N 08714W 6960 03093 9924 +137 +036 177059 060 057 000 00
052630 2425N 08712W 6970 03086 9933 +135 +035 178059 060 056 001 00
052700 2425N 08710W 6968 03090 9937 +133 +034 179063 063 058 000 00
052730 2425N 08709W 6969 03091 9944 +129 +034 181060 062 058 001 00
052800 2424N 08707W 6967 03113 9970 +122 +032 184060 062 999 999 03
052830 2423N 08707W 6958 03110 9976 +114 +031 186054 055 054 002 03
052900 2422N 08708W 6967 03112 9969 +119 +030 180054 055 055 001 03
052930 2422N 08710W 6963 03101 9952 +124 +030 174057 057 057 001 00
053000 2422N 08712W 6969 03089 9943 +128 +029 173056 058 057 001 00
053030 2423N 08714W 6969 03084 9929 +137 +029 177053 054 056 001 00
053100 2423N 08716W 6970 03079 9912 +146 +031 177045 048 055 003 00
053130 2423N 08718W 6978 03067 9906 +150 +032 183032 033 050 002 00
053200 2423N 08720W 6959 03088 9911 +143 +033 184028 032 045 003 00
053230 2423N 08722W 6975 03071 9915 +141 +033 187027 031 040 001 00
053300 2423N 08724W 6970 03074 9915 +139 +033 189024 027 035 003 03
053330 2423N 08726W 6967 03075 9902 +150 +032 201013 016 030 004 03
053400 2423N 08728W 6975 03074 9902 +150 +033 253008 014 026 003 00
053430 2424N 08730W 6961 03086 9887 +165 +033 305019 027 022 003 03
053500 2424N 08731W 6967 03084 9880 +177 +035 313027 032 999 999 03
$$
;

[Javlin]

88+ is the magic number tonight for us along the MGC.Can it occur?I do not Know but if it does a shift W in the morning but I think the NHC might have a good handle on this one and Mobile is the hit though.

[Sanibel]

Picking up forward speed. Should be a landfall tomorrow evening.


NHC had this as a TS all the way up a few days ago.

[Aric Dunn]

something must be wrong
the readings dont even make any sense...

[Stormcenter]

As expected as Ida moves northward she is starting to look more and more ragged with every new loop.
Good news indeed for wherever she ends up making landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

maybe they are in the a new bermunda triangle type deal.. the readings are not even physically possible.. lol

[Sanibel]

Yeah, but I'm surprised it kept that black IR so long and fairly good CDO. And 90KTS.

[PTPatrick]

0z Nogaps is just a hair west of GFS and friends with land fall over perido river at 36 hrs.

All of these models still pretty much have this offshore or just landfalling at 36 hrs including,
0z GFS and GFDL. Seems rotten to me. 36 hrs...thats Tuesday morning. Its bookin right now and I just have trouble believing it wont be on land around this time tomorrow night. Not sure if that has much of a track ramification and at this point I dont care. Just seems like models are all, even the west biased CMC Slow this down just off shore tomorrow evening...which makes me think calling any landfall point is probably folly.