ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Dave]

[PTPatrick]

For what its worth Sanibel...EVERY 0z model so far has this just making landfall around 36 hrs( Tuesday coffee time). Not sure whether to believe what I am seeing or believe the models. My guess is that it will start slowing down soon? I'll say this...they are NOT showing a typical front scooping up a cane senario sling shoting it north east...almost seems to hit the coast and stop dead for a bit and move east. Either way...I have trouble believing it wont be on land somewhere around midnight tomorrow night.

[HURAKAN]

Shear: 45 knots in Key West

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 090543
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 15 20091109
053530 2422N 08731W 6970 03078 9889 +164 +038 314030 033 999 999 03
053600 2420N 08730W 6984 03065 9886 +169 +037 304023 026 006 002 00
053630 2419N 08728W 6963 03091 9897 +163 +035 282018 019 007 003 00
053700 2417N 08727W 6967 03090 9909 +157 +033 267021 024 013 002 00
053730 2416N 08725W 6969 03094 9923 +151 +030 238026 030 013 002 00
053800 2415N 08724W 6958 03110 9921 +153 +028 227025 026 023 002 00
053830 2414N 08722W 6970 03098 9936 +145 +026 218027 029 029 003 00
053900 2412N 08721W 6961 03112 9956 +130 +024 217032 033 031 002 00
053930 2411N 08720W 6970 03107 9977 +117 +021 214033 034 032 002 00
054000 2410N 08718W 6963 03116 9982 +115 +018 207035 035 031 002 00
054030 2409N 08717W 6961 03120 9991 +110 +016 208035 036 033 002 00
054100 2408N 08715W 6971 03113 9999 +106 +015 206036 036 036 002 00
054130 2407N 08714W 6966 03121 0006 +104 +014 212042 044 037 001 00
054200 2405N 08713W 6974 03111 9999 +111 +013 209041 042 039 002 00
054230 2404N 08711W 6968 03122 0001 +110 +013 206042 042 041 000 00
054300 2403N 08710W 6966 03127 0001 +110 +014 204041 042 039 002 00
054330 2402N 08709W 6971 03119 0013 +105 +014 199042 042 037 003 00
054400 2401N 08708W 6966 03132 0020 +100 +014 200042 042 037 001 00
054430 2400N 08706W 6968 03133 0027 +096 +014 201042 043 036 002 00
054500 2359N 08705W 6967 03130 0031 +094 +014 203043 044 035 002 00
$$
;

[MGC]

Looks like Ida is still moving to the NNW at an increasing clip....MGC

[Sanibel]

Convection starting to elongate up the front. Pressures should tick upwards soon:

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 090545
XXAA 59067 99244 70875 08147 99991 26415 12027 00579 ///// /////
92609 23212 12020 85350 23657 12013 70028 14860 25018 88999 77999
31313 09608 80534
61616 AF304 0611A IDA OB 06
62626 EYE SPL 2440N08748W 0538 MBL WND 12529 AEV 20800 DLM WND 13
515 991697 WL150 12031 080 REL 2439N08747W 053401 SPG 2440N08748W
053816 =
XXBB 59068 99244 70875 08147 00991 26415 11897 22220 22877 24256
33850 23657 44798 22060 55742 17257 66729 18660 77708 17660 88697
14061
21212 00991 12027 11982 12032 22963 12531 33910 12017 44879 10018
55850 12013 66836 14517 77756 14013 88748 16011 99742 14010 11730
20007 22697 25019
31313 09608 80534
61616 AF304 0611A IDA OB 06
62626 EYE SPL 2440N08748W 0538 MBL WND 12529 AEV 20800 DLM WND 13
515 991697 WL150 12031 080 REL 2439N08747W 053401 SPG 2440N08748W
053816 =
;

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Convection starting to elongate up the front. Pressures should tick upwards soon:

lowest pressure this time was 988mb

[Cyclenall]

maybe they are in the a new bermunda triangle type deal.. the readings are not even physically possible.. lol

I was looking at it and thinking the same thing.

[Aric Dunn]

the recon data is all messed up dont believe anything yet.. lol

[PTPatrick]

are you sure they are done with the mission...988 seems high...

[deltadog03]

Either something is up with recon or this is significantly weaker. looks like 988mb
some colder clouds at the center going up, but as of now hmmmm

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

no they aren't done but thats the lowest so far. But like Aric said its all messed up.

[IvanSurvivor]

maybe they are in the a new bermunda triangle type deal.. the readings are not even physically possible.. lol

I was looking at it and thinking the same thing.

Why? Please explain...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

i was noticing there could be signs of a double wind maxima

[Derek Ortt]

it has weakened significantly. The readings are more than plausable

[wxsouth]

Either something is up with recon or this is significantly weaker. looks like 988mb
some colder clouds at the center going up, but as of now hmmmm

Recon data is perfectly plausible...

Sfc/mid level centers have become separated as extratropical transformation begins. Dropsonde indicates sfc center south of flight center. Steady weakening should continue through landfall...but will still be interesting to see what type of windfield the system has at landfall.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 090553
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 16 20091109
054530 2358N 08704W 6967 03130 0035 +090 +013 203044 045 033 002 00
054600 2356N 08702W 6967 03132 0033 +093 +013 207044 044 030 003 00
054630 2355N 08701W 6970 03129 0028 +100 +013 211040 041 031 003 00
054700 2354N 08700W 6966 03138 0028 +101 +014 209039 039 031 003 00
054730 2353N 08658W 6968 03137 0031 +100 +015 208038 039 030 003 00
054800 2352N 08657W 6970 03135 0035 +097 +015 210039 040 032 002 00
054830 2351N 08656W 6964 03143 0040 +095 +016 213041 042 031 002 00
054900 2349N 08654W 6965 03143 0042 +095 +016 215041 042 029 003 00
054930 2348N 08653W 6966 03145 0044 +095 +016 216040 040 028 004 00
055000 2347N 08652W 6965 03146 0040 +099 +016 216039 039 029 002 00
055030 2346N 08650W 6970 03145 0041 +099 +016 215039 039 029 003 00
055100 2345N 08649W 6962 03152 0043 +100 +017 216039 039 031 002 00
055130 2344N 08647W 6966 03149 0045 +098 +017 217039 039 030 001 00
055200 2342N 08646W 6971 03145 0052 +095 +017 213038 038 030 002 00
055230 2341N 08645W 6967 03153 0054 +095 +017 210037 037 031 002 00
055300 2340N 08643W 6964 03156 0055 +095 +017 209037 037 030 001 00
055330 2339N 08642W 6969 03151 0060 +092 +017 210037 037 031 001 00
055400 2338N 08641W 6967 03154 0067 +087 +017 214037 037 032 001 00
055430 2336N 08639W 6970 03154 0069 +085 +016 210035 036 032 004 00
055500 2335N 08638W 6967 03159 0075 +085 +016 204035 036 034 002 00
$$
;

[PTPatrick]

I was thinking that was not sounding right. Meanwhile as far as I can tell it is now just about due south of its forecast point for the morning...based on latest floater update...and still moving NNW.

[Aric Dunn]

it has weakened significantly. The readings are more than plausable

you cant have a 20 degree temp change in 1 minute.. lol