ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[ROCK]

Just got back fro the club...it was windy on the roof!

nice, hurricane party..had one for Ike. Boy I sure felt bad the next day with no A/C....


so much for the East/Right camp this am....she is well left of guidance. Nice call Ivan....

[ROCK]

NHC shifted west in their 3am advisory. She is well left now so I wouldnt rule out a LA landfall just yet. Of course she needs to hold together awhile longer to make landfall.


BTW- the EURO was also left into SE LA...

[Ivanhater]

Just got back fro the club...it was windy on the roof!

nice, hurricane party..had one for Ike. Boy I sure felt bad the next day with no A/C....


so much for the East/Right camp this am....she is well left of guidance. Nice call Ivan....

Lol rock..those vodka crans have thrown me off. I need to get some sleep before tomororw. I tried to let people know earlier she was only wobbling, but oh well.

Should be a crazy day tomorrow!

[tailgater]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I'm thinking IDA will continue to weaken with more separation between the upper half and the lower half, till it is completely decoupled before landfall as a weak TS. This is just my opinion from years of being a tropical nerd. Landfall near Pascagoula at 45 mph moving NNE from there.
Where will the largest tornado threat be?

[jlauderdal]

SE Florida might have bigger winds than this IDA will at landfall based on all the negative factors working IDA to its grave. Local NWS office doing some extra work for the models this morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009

..WINDY WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY

..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALL WATERS

..STRONG RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES


DISCUSSION
HURRICANE IDA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE ALIGNED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS CONTINUES TO
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A SPECIAL 06Z
MIAMI SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
STRENGTHENED FURTHER SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH WINDS OF 33 KNOTS AT
JUST 1K FT...AND 34-35 KNOTS BETWEEN 1-2K FT. WINDS ALONG THE EAST
COAST ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH EVEN EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN
THIS...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wow, i'm even surprised how bad she looks early this morning. WV loop tells it all. Tons of dry air to the west and now undercutting Ida to the south. No way does she survive 12 more hours of this. Minimal tropical storm at best. Check out the loop. Starting to like a massive nor'easter.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 090841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
300 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A TOLL ON IDA. THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE RISEN TO 988 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE
MEASUREMENT OF 991 WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF WIND. ALSO...THE FLIGHT-
LEVEL AND SFMR WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL
CENTER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN RECENT
GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS THE COLDEST CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BEEN DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRCRAFT FIXES. THE
MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SO FAR
WAS 74 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE SHEAR OVER IDA IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT MORE THAN 30 KT BY
UW-CIMSS...AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH COOLER WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF
IDA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
...AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE ICON CONSENSUS THROUGH 36
HOURS. AT 48 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE DECAY
SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL INLAND BY THAT TIME.
AS IDA MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT
...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IDA WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS
AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE LATEST FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT IDA IS MOVING ALONG
A HEADING OF 335/14...FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. IDA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TODAY AHEAD
OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND ECMWF REMAIN WESTERN OUTLIERS
WITH A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE THROUGH 24 HOURS TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER
LANDFALL...IDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE
EAST...AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE GFDL...SHOW WHAT IS
LEFT OF IDA DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONT
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEHIND A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 25.1N 87.9W 80 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 27.2N 88.2W 75 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 29.6N 87.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 30.9N 86.7W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 11/0600Z 31.0N 85.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[wxman57]

A hurricane at landfall? Probably not. Let's see if the plane can even find hurricane force winds in it now. And with the convection being disrupted by shear, the standard FL-SFC reduction may not apply. It'll have a harder time bringing any stronger winds to the surface. It's really being ripped apart by shear now. Good news for you folks in it's path.

[cycloneye]

Wow,in only a few hours it has turned into this mess? I agree 57 that it wont be a hurricane at landfall.

[oaba09]

This kinda reminds me of typhoon mirinae.....showed potential but fizzled in the later stages......This is good news to the people on Ida's path

[cycloneye]

jlauderdal,bring the bear.

[jlauderdal]

jlauderdal,bring the bear.

i think the bears can finally hibernate until next june, i have plants knocked over by the pool this morning so i guess im reporting the first damage from IDA in the USA

[cycloneye]

One thing that we agree is that this Ida event was the best of the 2009 season in terms of the month it occured and more with El Nino present in a moderate stage,who thought that something would develop into a hurricane in the Caribbean.Having said that,indirectly,it caused many deaths in Centralamerica (El Salvador) as the tail merged system 96E in the Pacific with the flow of Ida.

My prayers go to those that lost their loveones in that tragedy.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 091153
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
600 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009

...IDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST
OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM EAST OF INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 330 MILES...535 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST OVERNIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IDA COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT
APPROACHES THE GULF COAST TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER
LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.8N 88.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

...SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...25.8N 88.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB

[HURAKAN]

Going down fast

[Thunder44]

It looks like it's already begun it's ET transition, with all the dry air going into the center.

[wxman57]

HRD had it at 61 kts at 0730Z on the post-storm analysis below. Check out the wind field on it, as analyzed by HRD this morning (below). Clearly, this is a sheared TS that's now making the transition to ET.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

[jlauderdal]

One thing that we agree is that this Ida event was the best of the 2009 season in terms of the month it occured and more with El Nino present in a moderate stage,who thought that something would develop into a hurricane in the Caribbean.Having said that,indirectly,it caused many deaths in Centralamerica (El Salvador) as the tail merged system 96E in the Pacific with the flow of Ida.

My prayers go to those that lost their loveones in that tragedy.

El Salvador had a tough go of it from this system.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track intensity is barely a hurricane=65kts.But they may downgrade to TS at 10 AM EST.

AL, 11, 2009110912, , BEST, 0, 258N, 882W, 65, 993, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest