SWIO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (03R)

[wyq614]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.1S 73.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING
OVER A DEVELOPING LLCC IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. AN OLDER 050110Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC WITH RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS
ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. A RECENT 051549Z
ASCAT PASS MISSED THE LLCC, BUT INDICATED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS,
PROVIDING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VWS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC, FAVORABLE SST VALUES, AND A GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.



Once activated, it shows 25 knots of wind and was classified as a FAIR

[Crostorm]

[Macrocane]

It looks pretty well organized.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 070200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.2S 74.4E TO 6.4S 72.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
062330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.7S
74.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.2S
74.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7S 74.2E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING ABOUT A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS DEPICTED IN A 062039Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS A 061327Z QUIKSCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED EXHAUST. NEVERTHELESS, THE
LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EXTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080200Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[P.K.]

This is now Tropical Disturbance 03R.

WTIO30 FMEE 071216


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/3/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2009/11/07 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.1S / 74.3E
(THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/08 00 UTC: 03.5S/73.9E, MAX WIND=025KT.
24H: 2009/11/08 12 UTC: 04.0S/73.9E, MAX WIND=030KT.
36H: 2009/11/09 00 UTC: 04.5S/74.5E, MAX WIND=030KT.
48H: 2009/11/09 12 UTC: 05.1S/74.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
60H: 2009/11/10 00 UTC: 05.7S/74.7E, MAX WIND=030KT.
72H: 2009/11/10 12 UTC: 06.4S/74.3E, MAX WIND=030KT.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.0
WITHIN THIS NET, DESPITE A NEUTRAL TO RATHER DEFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT
IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR,
THE
LOW , MONITORED SINCE YESTERDAY NORTH OF THE CHAGOS HAS
STRENGHTENED.
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING AND
WESTERLY EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS BOOSTED BY THE TWIN
CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR SRI-LANKA.
NWP MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK BUT AN OPTION OF A SLOW
SOUTHWARDS DRIFT SEEMS TO MAKE CONSENSUS.
VERTICAL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN
THE
NEXT 72H, THIS LOW IS IN CONSEQUENCE NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS
.=

[Cookie]

[Chacor]

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.2S 74.4E TO 6.4S 72.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
062330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.7S
74.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.2S
74.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7S 74.2E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE
BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING ABOUT A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS DEPICTED IN A 062039Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS A 061327Z QUIKSCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED EXHAUST. NEVERTHELESS, THE
LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EXTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

[Grifforzer]

WTIO30 FMEE 080628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3
2.A POSITION 2009/11/08 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 3.9S / 72.5E
(THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/08 18 UTC: 04.1S/72.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/11/09 06 UTC: 04.4S/72.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/11/09 18 UTC: 04.6S/72.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/11/10 06 UTC: 04.8S/71.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/11/10 18 UTC: 05.1S/71.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/11/11 06 UTC: 05.3S/70.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- AND CI=2.0
WITHIN THIS NET, DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW , MONITORED
SINCE
YESTERDAY NORTH OF THE CHAGOS, HAS SUFFERED FROM THE INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS BOOSTED BY THE TWIN CYCLOGENESIS NEAR
SRI-LANKA, UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN
THE
NEXT 24 A 36H, THIS LOW IS IN CONSEQUENCE NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY.
NWP MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK BUT AN OPTION OF A SLOW
SOUTHWERST WARDS DRIFT SEEMS TO MAKE CONSENSUS.
VERTICAL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN
THE
NEXT 24 TO 36H, THIS LOW IS IN CONSEQUENCE NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY.

----
forecast for Tempete Tropicale Moderee Anja by around Tues/Wed

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Burst of convection

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 746
WTIO30 FMEE 090631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/3/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3
2.A POSITION 2009/11/09 AT 0600 UTC :
3.9S / 74.3E
(THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /S 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/09 18 UTC: 04.0S/74.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/11/10 06 UTC: 04.5S/74.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2009/11/10 18 UTC: 04.8S/73.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2009/11/11 06 UTC: 05.1S/72.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2009/11/11 18 UTC: 05.5S/71.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2009/11/12 06 UTC: 06.0S/70.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=2.0-
WITHIN THIS NET, DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW, MONITORED
SINCE
YESTERDAY NORTH OF THE CHAGOS, HAS SUFFERED FROM THE INCREASING EAST
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND HAS CLEARLY MOVED AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.
LOW LEVEL EQUATORIAL INFLOW, BOOSTED BY THE TWIN CYCLOGENESIS NEAR
SRI-LANKA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THIS LOW IS FORECASTED TO TRACK
NORTHWARDS. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 A 36H, THIS LOW IS IN CONSEQUENCE NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY.
NWP MODELS DISAGREE ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK BUT AN OPTION OF A SLOW
EAST WARDS DRIFT SEEMS TO MAKE CONSENSUS AS A RESPONSE TO THE
CONFLICTING
EFFECT OF THE STEERING WESTERLY WEAKENING FLOW IN THE NORTH AND THE
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE SOUTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEN THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SO
UTHWESTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNINGS
.=
NNNN

[senorpepr]

Last bulletin issues from FMR


WTIO30 FMEE 100630
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/3/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3
2.A POSITION 2009/11/10 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.0S / 74.0E
(FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : UNDETERMINED
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 15 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NEXT DISTURBANCE HAS DISSIPATED NORTH-EAST OF THE CHAGOS
ARCHIPELAGOS, IN
A BROAD CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION.
EQUATORIAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW HAS WEAKEN. UPPER LEVELS VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR
IS STRONG (?20KT).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT
3
DAYS.
THIS WARNING IS THE LAST ONE ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS
REINTENSIFICATION.
LOOK AT THE NEXT BULLETIN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE
MONITORING
OF THIS SYSTEM.=