ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[gatorcane]

HRD had it at 61 kts at 0730Z on the post-storm analysis below. Check out the wind field on it, as analyzed by HRD this morning (below). Clearly, this is a sheared TS that's now making the transition to ET.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

Agreed, this thing is looking nothing like what it did when it was farther south in the loop current just 10 hours ago. In fact it looks exactly as i expected, a sheared system with more oranges (and soon more yellows) showing up on IR --- the higher lattitudes are starting to get to her. I really questioned a hurricane into the Northern Gulf coast for reasons such as shear, cooler SSTs, and drier continental air that usually infiltrates these systems just before landfall (especially now that we are in November). This weakening trend is of course great news.

Look at all the dry air she is starting to suck in now (off to the west):

[tpr1967]

It has sure gotten quite in this forum.

[Sabanic]

Just wondering how much bad weather we will be getting

[HURAKAN]

It has sure gotten quite in this forum.

This is likely the reason. Not much left of the old circulation.

[PTPatrick]

I would not be surpised based on the" extra tropicalness", and dryness over the SE quad if most of the bad weather int he Mobile, Pascagoula area hits this afternoon through tomorrow morning. Def looks like heaviest QPF willl be along the interaction with the front basically right through mobile county and drier toward Pensacola. Iteresting part is the models have a closed surface low inthe vicinity of the coast at 30 hrs, but think that is NOT what to pay attention to. THere will be no eastern eyewall or bad NE quad here,--all the gales, possibly hurricane gusts will be in that NW wad of mess that is currently not too far off the coast.

[gboudx]

For those interesed in jeff's opinion on Ida, here's his email update from this morning.

Rare November Hurricane Ida racing toward the US Gulf coast

Hurricane Warnings are in effect from Pascagoula, MS to Indian River, FL

A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, LA to Pascagoula, FL including Lake Pontchartrain and metro New Orleans.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from Indian River, FL to Aucilla River, FL

Discussion:

Latest recon penetration of the center indicates the 30 kts of shear over Ida is taking its toll. The flight level and low level centers have become displaced and the pressure in way up to 993mb from the 970’s yesterday. The overall cloud pattern has become very disorganized with nearly all deep convection displaced well to the north and northeast of the low level center. The 80mph advisory wind speed is likely very generous and Ida may already have weakened into a tropical storm.

Track:

Ida is racing NNW at 16mph ahead of a trough over the southern plains and this motion should continue today with an increase in forward speed and turn toward the N and NNE overnight. This will bring the adverse weather with Ida to the US Gulf coast this afternoon and tonight. Near landfall and shortly after Ida will turn hard to the right (east) and slow as the system becomes entrenched in a developing trough off the US E coast.

Intensity:

Ida will begin to weaken as 30kts of shear rip the upper level center off the low level center. Additionally stable cool boundary layer north of the hurricane is being ingested this morning and SST’s only cool from the current location toward the coast. There is little favorable factors even for Ida to maintain hurricane intensity. While NHC continues to forecast a hurricane at landfall…this is likely very generous and Ida may be downgraded later this morning if current trends continue. Ida is also beginning extra-tropical transition into a cold core mid-latitude system. Given the fast forward motion, Ida should reach the US Gulf coast still as a true tropical system…but on the verge of becoming mid-latitude.

Impacts:

Strong winds will reach the coast in the warning areas by this afternoon into the evening hours well ahead of the landfall of any center. Storm surge flooding of 4-6 feet is likely along and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, mainly over the western FL panhandle. Possibly as far west of Mobile Bay. Extensive easterly fetch north of Ida is already resulting in coastal flooding over coastal SE LA and MS where water levels are running 2-3 feet above normal. Large waves on top of the storm surge will result in significant beach erosion and damage along the immediate beach front. As Ida turns E and stronger winds expand outward, a larger surge may be experienced in the Big Bend area of FL which is extremely vulnerable to storm surge flooding. Ida’s slowing after moving inland will result in widespread 4-8 inches of rainfall along the Gulf coast with isolated totals of 12 inches possible.

[Sabanic]

Going to be a nasty evening

[cycloneye]

I wonder if already Ida is 75% extratropical by looking at the loop and that 75% may be generous.

[N2FSU]

Is it me, or does it appear to have made a N or even NNE turn already? First visible sat loop seems to suggest so.

[jlauderdal]

It has sure gotten quite in this forum.

kinda of nice actually for more than one reason

[Kennethb]

Looks to me like mid level circulation being sheared to the NE, while low level circulation maintaining NW/NNW movement.

Perhaps some competition beginning with low in NW GOM.

[Terry]

IDA looks pathetic in pink.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ida is extratropicalifying, and I know thats not a word lol.

[jlauderdal]

Ida is extratropicalifying, and I know thats not a word lol.

its a perfect word for the situation

[attallaman]

Now that it appears that Ida is beginning to fall apart will the traffic on this board also diminish? Can I still expect to receive some bad weather out of what now remains of Ida in my area? It's overcast here right now and the winds are out of the NNE at 15 gusting to 21, barometric pressure is 30.06" with no rain. The NOLA stations are on this like it was headed their way today, Mobile stations are giving good coverage too. Unfortunately no FL stations on my Cable One but years ago I use to get ABC affiliate WEAR TV 3 out of P'Cola, FL. If WEAR TV 3 is still around they're probably giving this some coverage.

[Evil Jeremy]

Now that it appears that Ida is beginning to fall apart will the traffic on this board also diminish? Can I still expect to receive some bad weather out of what now remains of Ida in my area? It's overcast here right now and the winds are out of the NNE at 15 gusting to 21, barometric pressure is 30.06" with no rain. The NOLA stations are on this like it was headed their way today, Mobile stations are giving good coverage too. Unfortunately no FL stations on my Cable One but years ago I use to get ABC affiliate WEAR TV 3 out of P'Cola, FL. If WEAR TV 3 is still around they're probably giving this some coverage.

You should still be getting a hefty amount of rain and wind from Ida and the cold front over the next couple of days.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090903
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 35 20091109
085530 2419N 08653W 6965 03154 0079 +072 +017 198038 038 029 000 00
085600 2421N 08655W 6964 03151 0075 +075 +017 197038 038 029 000 00
085630 2422N 08656W 6974 03144 0064 +082 +018 200039 039 027 000 00
085700 2423N 08658W 6965 03150 0060 +084 +018 199039 039 027 001 00
085730 2425N 08659W 6972 03140 0054 +089 +019 201039 040 029 001 00
085800 2426N 08701W 6969 03141 0050 +091 +019 206035 037 029 000 00
085830 2427N 08702W 6966 03146 0046 +092 +019 201035 036 028 001 00
085900 2429N 08704W 6969 03142 0045 +094 +019 201037 038 029 000 00
085930 2430N 08705W 6965 03142 0046 +090 +019 199038 039 031 000 00
090000 2431N 08707W 6971 03133 0043 +091 +019 199036 037 030 001 00
090030 2433N 08708W 6966 03137 0043 +091 +018 200038 038 031 001 00
090100 2434N 08709W 6965 03139 0049 +084 +018 204037 038 031 002 00
090130 2434N 08709W 6965 03139 0052 +083 +018 208036 036 030 003 00
090200 2437N 08712W 6963 03141 0044 +087 +017 211034 035 029 003 00
090230 2438N 08714W 6966 03136 0037 +090 +017 207034 035 031 001 00
090300 2439N 08715W 6967 03130 0024 +100 +018 207034 035 029 002 00
090330 2441N 08717W 6967 03130 0021 +101 +019 209034 034 031 002 00
090400 2442N 08718W 6970 03125 0024 +098 +020 215034 034 032 002 00
090430 2443N 08719W 6970 03125 0023 +098 +020 221035 036 034 000 00
090500 2445N 08721W 6966 03129 0025 +095 +021 223037 037 033 002 00
$$

[attallaman]

It has sure gotten quite in this forum.

kinda of nice actually for more than one reason

Is it kinda nice that the discussion here has gotten quiet or is it kinda nice that Ida is now beginning to get quiet by the system beginning to fall apart?

[jhpigott]

any consensus as to what the ET remenants of Ida are going to do after landfall. lot of the guidance looks to bring whatever is left E, ESE, SE, S and back over the Florida peninsula. Our rain chances on Wed here in Palm Beach county are 50% - just wondering if that is attributable to the forecasters thinking of where Ida will be on Wed.

[TheEuropean]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090913
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 36 20091109
090530 2446N 08722W 6967 03130 0024 +096 +021 224035 037 035 000 00
090600 2447N 08723W 6966 03127 0024 +093 +021 226034 035 035 000 00
090630 2448N 08725W 6969 03123 0023 +094 +021 226034 035 036 000 00
090700 2450N 08726W 6967 03123 0019 +095 +021 231036 036 039 001 00
090730 2451N 08728W 6966 03123 0015 +097 +021 235037 038 039 001 00
090800 2452N 08729W 6967 03119 0022 +089 +022 227040 041 039 001 00
090830 2453N 08730W 6970 03114 0015 +093 +022 225040 040 042 000 00
090900 2455N 08732W 6969 03114 0008 +097 +022 225040 040 044 001 00
090930 2456N 08733W 6961 03121 0008 +097 +022 227042 043 046 000 00
091000 2457N 08734W 6969 03112 0000 +102 +022 229043 043 046 000 00
091030 2458N 08736W 6963 03116 9996 +102 +023 232044 044 047 000 00
091100 2500N 08737W 6968 03109 9988 +106 +023 237038 042 047 002 00
091130 2501N 08738W 6969 03102 9976 +116 +023 245028 029 049 000 03
091200 2502N 08739W 6963 03109 9970 +118 +024 250027 029 050 001 00
091230 2504N 08741W 6973 03095 9976 +113 +025 244026 028 050 000 00
091300 2505N 08742W 6959 03112 9981 +107 +026 236021 023 048 001 00
091330 2506N 08743W 6968 03095 9977 +107 +026 232023 027 048 002 00
091400 2508N 08744W 6954 03118 9965 +115 +025 257033 041 049 001 00
091430 2509N 08745W 6975 03082 9947 +126 +025 260044 046 050 002 00
091500 2511N 08746W 6956 03106 9950 +124 +024 253042 044 049 000 00
$$

000
URNT15 KNHC 090923
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 37 20091109
091530 2512N 08747W 6974 03079 9955 +117 +022 234041 044 049 005 00
091600 2514N 08748W 6952 03103 9935 +130 +017 237048 050 050 006 00
091630 2515N 08749W 6966 03080 9922 +135 +015 243052 055 047 003 00
091700 2517N 08750W 6972 03062 9913 +134 +017 237047 052 036 004 00
091730 2518N 08751W 6969 03065 9929 +119 +018 231035 037 039 002 00
091800 2520N 08752W 6962 03067 9919 +123 +020 233020 024 036 002 00
091830 2521N 08753W 6969 03061 9914 +127 +021 220017 018 033 001 03
091900 2523N 08754W 6970 03063 9914 +128 +022 200011 014 027 002 03
091930 2524N 08756W 6967 03063 9925 +119 +023 104004 006 022 004 03
092000 2524N 08758W 6973 03071 9932 +118 +024 066009 010 021 003 03
092030 2525N 08759W 6967 03069 9927 +121 +024 062009 010 021 002 00
092100 2527N 08801W 6965 03075 9935 +117 +025 063011 012 034 003 00
092130 2528N 08802W 6969 03072 9946 +110 +025 063009 010 042 004 00
092200 2529N 08804W 6971 03074 9953 +108 +025 051015 019 045 005 00
092230 2530N 08805W 6962 03086 9971 +095 +024 049026 029 046 007 00
092300 2532N 08806W 6970 03081 9972 +099 +023 051030 030 045 007 00
092330 2533N 08808W 6967 03092 9980 +096 +022 057031 031 043 006 00
092400 2534N 08809W 6967 03096 9990 +093 +022 063028 030 044 003 00
092430 2536N 08811W 6969 03095 9991 +096 +022 067029 029 043 004 00
092500 2537N 08812W 6968 03102 9997 +095 +023 071025 026 043 005 00
$$

000
URNT15 KNHC 090933
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 38 20091109
092530 2538N 08813W 6965 03109 0007 +090 +023 074026 027 043 006 00
092600 2540N 08815W 6970 03104 0014 +087 +022 078026 027 041 006 00
092630 2541N 08816W 6967 03114 0011 +092 +021 080026 027 041 006 00
092700 2542N 08818W 6968 03114 0020 +086 +021 082027 028 041 006 00
092730 2544N 08819W 6969 03117 0026 +084 +020 083026 027 040 006 00
092800 2545N 08821W 6967 03117 0036 +078 +020 084027 028 041 008 00
092830 2546N 08822W 6965 03122 0049 +071 +019 088030 031 041 008 00
092900 2548N 08824W 6968 03123 0053 +070 +018 092028 029 040 010 00
092930 2549N 08825W 6967 03127 0053 +073 +017 095029 030 039 013 00
093000 2551N 08827W 6972 03124 0071 +062 +018 083026 028 040 013 00
093030 2552N 08828W 6966 03133 0061 +071 +017 091025 025 042 011 00
093100 2553N 08830W 6969 03136 0060 +075 +016 097024 025 047 013 00
093130 2555N 08831W 6970 03135 0068 +071 +016 083025 028 048 012 00
093200 2556N 08833W 6959 03149 0074 +064 +016 077025 026 048 011 00
093230 2557N 08834W 6971 03132 0076 +065 +015 088022 025 047 010 00
093300 2559N 08836W 6976 03131 0085 +061 +014 050019 025 049 011 00
093330 2600N 08837W 6965 03137 0058 +077 +013 052019 024 051 009 00
093400 2601N 08838W 6974 03125 0023 +107 +012 046020 026 051 008 00
093430 2602N 08840W 6971 03135 0036 +098 +014 061018 020 048 007 00
093500 2604N 08841W 6968 03137 0036 +097 +016 072019 019 046 005 00
$$

000
URNT15 KNHC 090943
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 39 20091109
093530 2605N 08843W 6967 03136 0044 +091 +018 083022 024 043 004 00
093600 2606N 08844W 6976 03127 0038 +094 +019 080028 031 036 004 00
093630 2608N 08846W 6963 03147 0038 +097 +020 080017 020 040 000 00
093700 2609N 08847W 6969 03140 0055 +085 +021 095026 027 040 002 00
093730 2610N 08849W 6959 03152 0045 +093 +020 094025 027 039 002 00
093800 2612N 08850W 6970 03139 0039 +098 +020 100023 024 037 002 00
093830 2613N 08852W 6963 03150 0042 +096 +020 099021 023 037 002 00
093900 2614N 08853W 6970 03144 0050 +092 +020 093020 021 037 001 00
093930 2616N 08855W 6965 03152 0046 +095 +020 092020 020 035 000 00
094000 2617N 08856W 6962 03156 0040 +101 +020 107018 019 032 002 00
094030 2618N 08858W 6968 03145 0045 +097 +020 116018 019 032 001 00
094100 2620N 08859W 6967 03147 0048 +095 +020 116019 020 032 000 00
094130 2621N 08901W 6967 03148 0049 +095 +019 103020 020 029 002 00
094200 2623N 08902W 6967 03148 0049 +095 +019 096020 021 029 002 00
094230 2624N 08904W 6969 03147 0039 +103 +018 090018 018 028 001 00
094300 2625N 08905W 6967 03151 0040 +104 +018 090020 021 029 002 00
094330 2627N 08907W 6967 03148 0045 +099 +018 096022 022 030 001 00
094400 2628N 08908W 6965 03152 0056 +091 +017 097024 025 030 000 00
094430 2629N 08910W 6970 03146 0061 +087 +016 101026 026 029 001 00
094500 2631N 08911W 6966 03152 0057 +090 +015 104025 025 028 002 00
$$

000
URNT15 KNHC 090953
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 40 20091109
094530 2632N 08913W 6967 03149 0055 +093 +014 104025 026 027 002 00
094600 2633N 08914W 6967 03150 0052 +095 +014 106026 026 027 001 00
094630 2635N 08916W 6970 03146 0053 +095 +014 109025 025 026 002 00
094700 2636N 08917W 6968 03149 0058 +090 +013 109025 025 027 002 00
094730 2638N 08919W 6968 03150 0059 +090 +013 112025 025 027 001 00
094800 2639N 08920W 6967 03154 0059 +091 +013 113024 025 028 000 00
094830 2640N 08922W 6967 03161 0067 +090 +012 113024 025 024 003 03
094900 2640N 08924W 6965 03162 0074 +087 +013 113022 023 999 999 03
094930 2639N 08924W 6982 03136 0052 +095 +013 119019 020 020 003 03
095000 2637N 08924W 6965 03155 0053 +095 +013 115018 019 022 001 00
095030 2635N 08925W 6969 03149 0054 +094 +013 109019 021 027 000 00
095100 2633N 08925W 6969 03149 0054 +095 +012 111016 017 028 001 00
095130 2632N 08925W 6967 03153 0053 +095 +012 109015 016 025 000 00
095200 2630N 08925W 6967 03152 0054 +095 +012 105014 015 026 000 00
095230 2628N 08925W 6969 03151 0053 +095 +012 109014 015 027 000 00
095300 2626N 08925W 6967 03151 0055 +093 +012 110015 016 025 001 00
095330 2625N 08925W 6967 03152 0059 +090 +011 104012 012 027 000 00
095400 2623N 08925W 6967 03152 0060 +090 +011 103010 011 025 002 00
095430 2621N 08925W 6967 03152 0058 +090 +011 109009 010 025 003 00
095500 2619N 08926W 6966 03151 0059 +090 +010 110008 008 025 002 00
$$

000
URNT15 KNHC 091003
AF304 0611A IDA HDOB 41 20091109
095530 2618N 08926W 6966 03150 0057 +090 +010 103007 007 024 003 00
095600 2616N 08926W 6967 03149 0058 +090 +010 090008 008 022 001 00
095630 2614N 08926W 6967 03149 0055 +092 +011 087006 007 023 002 00
095700 2612N 08926W 6969 03148 0056 +090 +011 083007 008 023 000 00
095730 2611N 08926W 6966 03152 0057 +090 +011 079005 006 024 000 00
095800 2609N 08926W 6969 03146 0056 +090 +011 083005 005 024 003 00
095830 2607N 08926W 6967 03147 0061 +088 +011 081005 005 027 002 00
095900 2605N 08926W 6969 03149 0057 +090 +011 075004 004 024 000 00
095930 2603N 08927W 6966 03152 0058 +090 +011 069004 005 024 002 00
100000 2602N 08927W 6966 03150 0062 +088 +011 051005 006 023 001 00
100030 2600N 08927W 6969 03147 0063 +085 +011 350003 003 021 001 00
100100 2558N 08927W 6967 03151 0062 +085 +011 020002 002 021 001 00
100130 2556N 08927W 6967 03152 0058 +089 +011 237000 001 022 000 00
100200 2554N 08927W 6967 03148 0060 +085 +011 262001 001 019 001 00
100230 2553N 08927W 6968 03147 0062 +085 +011 266003 004 021 000 00
100300 2551N 08927W 6967 03148 0057 +089 +012 272006 006 018 001 00
100330 2549N 08927W 6967 03145 0061 +086 +012 278007 007 019 001 00
100400 2547N 08928W 6967 03146 0052 +092 +012 281012 014 016 001 00
100430 2546N 08928W 6966 03146 0047 +095 +012 282016 018 018 001 00
100500 2544N 08928W 6967 03146 0055 +088 +012 285013 015 014 002 00
$$