What is your evaluation of the 2009 Atlantic season?

[cycloneye]

This thread is for the members to post their take on what occured in general terms at the 2009 season with the numbers being 9/3/2.

As we go thru the final days of the season,I can say it was a good season to track tropical cyclones after all (Some said it was boring) as Major Hurricane Bill,Major Hurricane Fred,Tropical Storm Grace and Hurricane Ida were the ones that provided many analysis,Bill with the track,Fred after it was downgraded tracking to Georgia as remannt low,Grace possibly being a hurricane in the North Atlantic (Post season report may answer that) and Ida forming in November on El Nino year.

[Macrocane]

I agree with you about the highlights of the season
-Bill because it was a major hurricane and I always like to track them.
-Fred, same reason of Bill plus it was a rare occurence as it became a major on an unusual area and after being downgraded to a remnant low it tracked across the whole north Atlantic and made landfall in US.
-Grace: a nice october surprise, it even looked tropical when it was near Ireland.
-Ida: the most interesting system of the season, it formed in an unexpected and anti-climatological way, survived the central american cross and together with 96-E caused a disaster that we salvadorans will never forget, later it was a hurricane in the GOM during an El Niño year that was impossible for some people.

It was a good season boring at times but those storms made it unforgettable. Will it be over after Ida? I wouldn't say that, some people thought it was "so over" before Ida, so I will say it is over until 11:59:59 pm on december 31.

[gigabite]

gigabite=7/4/3 (Revised Preliminary) assuming it means tropical storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes direct analog from 1972 vs the 2009 season with the numbers being 9/3/2 doesn’t seem to bad as analogs go. There was some date correlation maybe about 0.3 without getting to sophisticated with the math, and no position correlation.

For my final guess I averaged all the possible analogs, that blew out the guess to the high side of the actual. The average of the analogs looked like the average of the total database.

[jinftl]

Dr. Gray just about nailed it with this August 1 (before we had any named storms) update of the # of storms forecast (he was high on the ACE forecast however)....and overall, the board thought he was smoking something funny when he came up with the forecast. It took some pretty strong conviction and confidence in forecasting techniques to go for 10 storms in an el nino year when the first 72 days (June 1 - Aug 11) had no named storms.


Dr. Gray (8/1):
# named storms = 10
# hurricanes = 4
# major hurricanes = 2

Season to date (actual):
# named storms = 9
# hurricanes = 3
# major hurricanes = 2

[cycloneye]

jinftl,there is a chance that Grace may be upgraded to hurricane at post season report so the Colorado State University team may get its #4.

[Stormcenter]

It was for the most part a non-eventful season for the U.S. mainland. We need a lot more of those types of seasons. IMO

[JonathanBelles]

My original numbers were "146-fact789=12/6/3"

I think that El Nino had more of an effect than I thought it would (Trying to get into my May brain). We also had the notion going in that past seasons were active...why wont this one be too?

As for the season itself...
A lot of unusual happenings. It certainly was not the average season although the numbers are close. Claudette and Ida both provided surprises for me. The sheared systems all played a very important role for my education and everyone else's. Grace was interesting because of its unusual landfall and path.

[StormClouds63]

My original numbers: 10/5/2
Uneventful and boring, yes, but much-needed for those recovering from 2005 and 2008.

[lrak]

For surfers it suxors (one swell), other than that I loved it. No worries, no boarding up, I had electricity, and my hurricane supplies didn't come out of this years funds. (my food will last until 2011). What if we have two or three more seasons like this last one? We may need some straightjackets for a few S2k members

[Ptarmigan]

An average season, 9/3/2. Interesting in some ways because Fred formed so far east in the Atlantic, which leads to the possibility before satellites that hurricanes could of went undetected, like in 1914 and 1933. Also, Ida formed in November during an El Nino season, which is very rare.

[somethingfunny]

Before sattelites I honestly can't see any of 2009's storms being named except for Bill and Ida. We'd be 2/2/1. Maybe if you want to be generous you could make a case that Claudette and Fred could have been detected, but there's a reason why you don't see short-lived weak fish storms like Ana, Danny, Erika, and Henri in the record before sattelites came around. Who knows what Grace would have been classified as.

I don't remember my pre-season guesstimate but I think it was something hilariously wrong like 16/10/5 or something. Where is the old guessing game thread?

[mitchell]

For surfers it suxors (one swell)...

maybe on the gulf, but in the mid atlantic we had real swell from Bill, Danny, and Ida (remnants). getting good ridable from 3/9 storms isnt a bad ratio.

Delaware isnt really known for waves, but Bill hooked us up for days!

Picture i took after a fun sesh during Bill's passage:
http://www.delsurf.com/photos/albums/userpics/10017/8-22-2009h.jpg

[hcane27]

Very normal I would say. We have become too accustomed to the abnormal I am afraid.

[jinftl]

A season that didn't result in mile after mile of blue-tarped roofs, didn't bankrupt insurance companies and cause others to pull out of high-risk locations, didn't displace thousands and destroy lives and communities, and didn't cause local and national embarassment due to an inept and laughable emergency response is alright by me and something i am sure many wouldn't mind getting accustomed to. Storm enthusiasts have enough recent storm history to keep them (us) happy for some time.

Very normal I would say. We have become too accustomed to the abnormal I am afraid.

[Rainband]

A season that didn't result in mile after mile of blue-tarped roofs, didn't bankrupt insurance companies and cause others to pull out of high-risk locations, didn't displace thousands and destroy lives and communities, and didn't cause local and national embarassment due to an inept and laughable emergency response is alright by me and something i am sure many wouldn't mind getting accustomed to. Storm enthusiasts have enough recent storm history to keep them (us) happy for some time.

Very normal I would say. We have become too accustomed to the abnormal I am afraid.

Amen!!!

[southerngale]

Before sattelites I honestly can't see any of 2009's storms being named except for Bill and Ida. We'd be 2/2/1. Maybe if you want to be generous you could make a case that Claudette and Fred could have been detected, but there's a reason why you don't see short-lived weak fish storms like Ana, Danny, Erika, and Henri in the record before sattelites came around. Who knows what Grace would have been classified as.

I don't remember my pre-season guesstimate but I think it was something hilariously wrong like 16/10/5 or something. Where is the old guessing game thread?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=104788&hilit=numbers

[Macrocane]

My guess was 11/4/2, it was not that bad. I think I was one of the few that predcited a near average season

[Cryomaniac]

The TCR for Grace will be interesting, but I can't really see them saying it was tropical at landfall.

[cycloneye]

Here is the evaluation (Verification) of the 2009 forecast from Dr Gray / Phil Klotzbach.Interesting to read it as they name several factors that contribute to the low numbers season.I posted it here as the members can read it and see if it coincides with your evaluation.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... ov2009.pdf

[CrazyC83]

Most of us predicted a near to slightly below normal season. The named storms and major hurricanes were pretty close to the consensus, but the hurricane number was lower than most predicted. Overall, it went pretty close to what was expected (so far).

As for 2010, from what I can see so far, I expect a slow start for sure. If El Nino stays all season, a slow season could be in store. But if it leaves us, then the fall could get interesting.