ARABIAN SEA: CYCLONIC STORM PHYAN (04A)

[Chacor]

Nothing yet from IMD.

[wyq614]

EC really develops it as a TS and moves it westward in the Arabian Sea.

[Kingarabian]

Must bring back memories from Cyclone Gonu:

[WindRunner]

This looked quite impressive this morning, not so much now...

Earlier:


Now:


Notice the broad center is near the coast, or maybe inland depending on your exact positioning. Also interesting to point out that this is almost in the "official" Arabian Sea...the dividing line is drawn straight south from the most southern tip of India.

[Chacor]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-11-2009



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.





A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. SYSTEM LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED.



CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL, COMORIN AREA AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.





RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES ALONG LATITUDE 11.0O N OVER INDIAN REGION.

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 77.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 78.2E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING ABOUT AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES (061322Z
QUIKSCAT, 061534Z ASCAT) INDICATE THE LLCC MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST, IN THE VICINITY OF SRI LANKA. NEVERTHELESS, THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EASTWARD AND ENHANCES THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS FAIR.

[CrazyC83]

07/2030 UTC 8.5N 78.6E T2.5/2.5 92B -- Arabian Sea

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Grifforzer]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-11-2009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC.

YESTERDAY’S LOW PRESSURE OVER COMORIN AREA NOW LIES AS A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER LAKSHADWEEP AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION OVER THE SAME AREA DURING NEXT 24HOURS AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL, COMORIN AREA AND SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA ARE BETWEEN –50oC to –60oC. WIND SHEER OVER THE AREA IS BETWEEN 15-20KTS.

[Grifforzer]

ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZNOV2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070152ZNOV2009//

THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 79.1E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWED A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO THE WEST OF SRI LANKA, IN THE GULF OF MANNAR. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC IS APPROACHING LAND AND MAY BE OVER SOUTHERN INDIA. THE RECENT IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WANING CONVECTION WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER LAND. THOUGH THE LLCC WAS RECENTLY EXPOSED AND APPEARED TO BE WELL-DEFINED, THE OVERALL CIRCULATION, AS INDICATED BY THE MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071256Z QUIKSCAT PASS, IS VERY BROAD AND MONSOONAL IN NATURE. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL 071200Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 135 TO 215 NM FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER ARE REPORTING 10- TO 15- KNOT WINDS AND LOW SEA LEVEL PRESSURES RANGING FROM 1004 TO 1005.5 MB. FINALLY, RECENT AMSU CROSS SECTIONS FAIL TO SHOW INDICATIONS OF A WARM CORE ALOFT AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES, SUCH AS THE 071332Z SSMIS IMAGES, DO NOT APPEAR TO DEPICT ANY BANDING OR A DEFINED LLCC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

[Grifforzer]

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZNOV2009//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080152ZNOV2009//

THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CROSSED INDIA AND IS BACK OUT
OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE ARABIAN SEA. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT THE LLCC. A 131224Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL BANDS CONVERGING INTO THE BROAD LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE LLCC MOVING BACK OVER WARM WATER AND THE CONVECTIVE CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HURAKAN]

Now in the Arabian Sea

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTIO21 PGTW 090900
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 72.0E TO 16.1N 69.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 090830Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 71.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 100900Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

WTIO31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 70.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 70.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.0N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.8N 70.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.5N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.7N 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.8N 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, AND HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF SUSTAINED, DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091344Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND DVORAK FIXES, FROM PGTW AND KNES, INDICATE A 35-
KNOT SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAVORABLE POLEWARD
VENTING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE OVER TC 04A OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, CLOSER TO TAU 48, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RETARD INTENSIFICATION, AND INITIAL INTERACTION
WITH THE INDIAN COASTLINE WILL ENGAGE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE
CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BEND
PROGRESSIVELY EAST OF NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
DISTORTING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES CLOSER. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. ALL GENERALLY
INDICATE LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF THE PAKISTANI-INDIAN BORDER AROUND
TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
090851Z NOV 09 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 090900)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100900Z AND 102100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-11-2009

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 09 NOVEMBER, 2009 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 09 NOVEMBER, 2009 (.)

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERIES AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 09 NOVEMBER, 2009 NEAR LAT. 11.50 N AND LONG. 71.50 E, ABOUT 150 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF AMINI DIVI (43311), 400 KM SOUTHWEST OF MANGALORE (43285) AND 500 KM SOUTHWEST OF GOA (43192).

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL ORGANISATION OF CONVECTION DURING PAST TWELVE HOURS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIES OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF KARNATAKA AND KERALA COASTS AND OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA.

SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS ARROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS LOW TO MODERATE (AROUND 10-20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPRATURE IS ABOUT 28-300C. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AN UPPER TROPOSPHEREIC RIDGE ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 14.00 N.

CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND MOVE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY.

[HURAKAN]

Looking a lot better

[CrazyC83]

Looks like about a 45 kt tropical storm.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _id_0.html - QuikSCAT shows winds above 40 kt

[Macrocane]

IMD, with all respect, is kind of slow naming systems, this one looks very good but it is expected to be just a deep depression. Maybe it will be named tomorrow but who knows.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

Latest