Low NE. of northern Leeward Islands

[TheEuropean]

A trough of low pressure with disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located several hundred mildes northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Here is the first TWO:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN

[cycloneye]

The frontal trough that comes out of the low dumped between 1-3 inches today in Puerto Rico.Interesting to see what comes out of this if anything.There has been some model support.

[gatorcane]

Looks like NOGAPS, CMC, and GFS develop it some. The ECMWF shows some development but it merges this low with the remants of Ida/frontal low off the Carolina coast.

[cycloneye]

This was fast.Thread is locked as is invest 98L.Go to active storms forum to continue the discussions about this system.