Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

no rain at all, Luis.
not even the sound of distant thunder.
strange, huh? rain all around but completely bypassing us so far.
just gray cloudy skies

Tkanks Barbara . Same scenario here since this afternoon. Whereas we're always under an yellow alert given Meteo-France. Let's wait and see what could happen.

[expat2carib]

Here... some high surfs in the Caribbean Sea. Nothing on the Atlantic side.

I live on the edge of the Atantic and Caribbean sea. I can see it from my porch

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 28.9N 88.5W AT 10/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 40 MILES ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 125 MILES S OF MOBILE ALABAMA MOVING N AT 15 KT. IDA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE NRN
GULF COAST TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB
REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 87W-91W...AND
ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 83W-85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-33N
BETWEEN 80W-87W. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AND ERN
GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N24W 6N38W 9N50W 9N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
16W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-8N BETWEEN 23W-27W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
36W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM IDA REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. IDA IS ENCOUNTERING STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WHICH IS KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
NE OF THE STORM CENTER. HOWEVER...A VERTICALLY ORIENTED OUTER
RAINBAND WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED SE OF THE
CENTER EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 22N BETWEEN
83W-86W. THIS RAINBAND LIES UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF W OF 88W AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 88W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE SW GULF LEAVES THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN NOT INFLUENCED BY IDA EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT IDA TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN...AND CONTINUED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO TRAIL THE REMNANTS OF IDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER
RAINBAND OF IDA EXTEND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 83W-87W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 77W-82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-82W IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ.
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 17N63W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 62W-67W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W
OF 73W CENTERED NEAR 18N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 73W CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 26N63W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WRN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N65W. THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ERN CONUS AND INTO THE WRN ATLC
W OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA
EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE FAR WRN ATLC N OF 30N W OF
77W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 43N30W
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W CONTINUING ALONG 28N53W
17N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN
50W-59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 46W-62W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-70W CENTERED NEAR 26N63W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERING THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 11N25W IS ALSO
ENHANCING THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 37N21W.

$$
WALTON

[cycloneye]

Now we have a low pressure NE of the islands that NHC is watching as I posted above Gustys discussion..That means the wet pattern will continue until it moves well away to the NW to north.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
907 PM AST MON NOV 9 2009

.UPDATE...SATELLITE PICTURE INDICATES A BAND OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF
SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH TOWARD WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SOUNDING
CONFIRMS AS PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS DROPPED ALMOST ONE HALF INCH IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. EXPECT MAIN SHOWERS TO MISS THE ISLAND HOWEVER
IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST NAM GUIDANCE. SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST WHERE NAM SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE SURFACE MOISTURE FLUX DIVERGENCE. SHOWERS WILL RE-
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS AT 850 MB OVER SAN JUAN ARE NORTHEAST AROUND
A LOW FORMING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWEST WHILE DEVELOPING SOME. AS IT DOES SO
WINDS AT 850 MB WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH EVEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER BOTH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AFTER THE WINDS SHIFT...
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MORE ON THE SOUTH AND EAST COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND OVER MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT
AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE NAM BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE OVER THE
WEST HALF OF PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS PLOWS IT INTO
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL WHICH
WILL BE RIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA.
VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Barbara,I guess this time you will get a rain event there with this kind of setup pattern.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 100827
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST TUE NOV 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRES AREA ABOUT 300 NM NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE CUTOFF LOW TO THE NORTH WITH TROF AXIS
EXTENDING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING IS FCST TO
RETROGRESS INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH TROF AXIS TO EXTEND ACROSS
WRN PR BY WED MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE IS FCST TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH PWAT INCREASING TO OVER 2.0 INCHES AND K
INDICES OVER 35. THIS WILL ALSO PUT FAR ERN THIRD OF PR AND THE
USVI UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING MCS ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS
SURROUNDING ST. CROIX OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS AND TONIGHT`S RUNS
ARE NOT AN EXCEPTION. MODEL SIGNAL IS QUITE STRONG FOR MCS
ACTIVITY WITH DEEP RH AND STRONG OMEGA IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER AND
A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SHOWALTER INDEX ALSO GOES STRONGLY
NEGATIVE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE LOTS OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND LARGE PINWHEEL LOW
TO GET THINGS STARTED. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS MCS TO
OCCUR IS BETWEEN 2AM WED THROUGH 8 AM WED AND THE AREAS AT HIGHER
RISK ARE FAR ERN/SERN PR AND ESPECIALLY VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND ALL
OF THE USVI. WE GAVE SERIOUS CONSIDERATION IN PUTTING OUT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS BUT SINCE WE ARE STILL ALMOST 24 HRS
AWAY FROM THIS HAPPENING WE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME.
WE WILL STRONGLY RECOMMEND DAYSHIFT TO ISSUE ONE. ANTICIPATE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A 6-HR PERIOD WITH FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL ALSO BE SCT/NMRS TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
THIS AFTERNOON AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE MAIN WEATHER
ACTION SHOULD HAPPEN OVERNIGHT TUE INTO EARLY WED. THERE COULD BE
MORE EPISODES OF MCS ACTIVITY AGAIN ON THU AS TROUGH LOW PRES
REMAINS NEAR THE AREA HOWEVER CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT IS NOT HIGH.


&&

.AVIATION...VCSH AT JSJ/IST EARLY THIS MORNING AND VCTS AT
ISX/JPS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AT ISX.

&&

.MARINE...SCA AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
WED NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO HAZARD MESSAGES FOR MORE DETAILS.

[Gustywind]

Conditions are deteriorating here this morning since 6AM: showers are back, isolated lightnings too, and the thunder has begun to rumble nicely. Waouw it's a bit chilly! Meteo-France have maintained the yellow alert for a risk of strong showers/tstorms. Weather is grey and sad but... let's keep the sun in our heart today .

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 100947
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST TUE NOV 10 2009

SKIES WERE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN REACHED
THE NORTHERN COASTS OF THE SAINT THOMAS...SAINT JOHN AND SMALLER
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WERE EAST NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTS AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS
ALONG THE COASTS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT A MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION
WITH LARGE AND BUILDING...LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES. IN ADDITION...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

[cycloneye]

Conditions are deteriorating here this morning since 6AM: showers are back, isolated lightnings too, and the thunder has begun to rumble nicely. Waouw it's a bit chilly! Meteo-France have maintained the yellow alert for a risk of strong showers/tstorms. Weather is grey and sad but... let's keep the sun in our heart today .

That is part of the frontal trough that comes out from what is now invest 98L.

Barbara,I guess this time you will get a rain event there with this kind of setup pattern.

[Gustywind]

Conditions are deteriorating here this morning since 6AM: showers are back, isolated lightnings too, and the thunder has begun to rumble nicely. Waouw it's a bit chilly! Meteo-France have maintained the yellow alert for a risk of strong showers/tstorms. Weather is grey and sad but... let's keep the sun in our heart today .

That is part of the frontal trough that comes out from what is now invest 98L.

Barbara,I guess this time you will get a rain event there with this kind of setup pattern.

Oh Tkanks Luis, i noticied that this morning on the new thread about 98L . Let's wait and see. As you said...hoping that Msbee will get a rain event with this kind of setup pattern. Whereas, what's the weather like in your location Cycloneye?

[cycloneye]

Not bad here this morning,only some showers,but I know it will turn bad tonight and tommorow in PR as the trough retrogrades.

[Gustywind]

Not bad here this morning,only some showers,but I know it will turn bad tonight and tommorow in PR as the trough retrogrades.

OK tkanks my friend.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.3N 88.0W AT 10/1200 UTC
OR ABOUT 25 MILES S OF MOBILE ALABAMA MOVING N AT 8 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IDA IS NOW COMPLETELY DEVOID OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS WELL INLAND OVER
MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE
AREA UP TO 150 NM OF THE CENTER.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 7N23W 6N41W 9N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-14W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE
AFRICA AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 21W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 11N38W TO 5N40W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BE MOVING INLAND SHORTLY. AND WILL NO
LONGER BE A MAJOR WEATHER MAKER. A 1011 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE W GULF NEAR 24N93W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG
25N88W TO JUST TO THE E OF IDA NEAR 29N86W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL US MOVING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF
86W ADVECTING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE GULF W OF 86W AND N
OF 28N W OF 82W. THUS ONLY LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COVER THE GULF N OF LOW/SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE. A NARROW
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR
HAVANA TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS TO NEAR PALM BEACH AND INTO THE W ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TRAILING TROPICAL STORM IDA WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
LINE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE W TIP OF CUBA TO NEAR 27N84W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE N GULF LATER TODAY TRAILING THE
REMNANTS OF IDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W ACROSS
CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR HAVANA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 79W-85W. A
LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 78W PROVIDING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
E CUBA. THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO NEAR 13N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N E
OF 70W TO OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
S OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH WELL NE OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN ENTERS THE W ATLC
NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N77W. A LARGE UPPER LOW
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N64W COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN
55W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR
24N66W TO 30N52W. A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N56W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS BOUNDARY
REMAINS N OF THE REGION. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E
EXTENDING FROM 16N57W TO 29N49W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 330 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 50W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA ALONG 10N/11W TO NEAR 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
WALLACE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 3 PM CST.

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING
GALE FORCE WINDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Looks like a pretty solid line of showers is coming in my area given the radar of Meteo-France... Weather has suddently changed and it's pretty moist grey and menacing! Showers are falling lightly and the wind is blowing with disorganized gusts, thunder is rumbling too.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ715-725-732-101945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0032.091110T1812Z-091110T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
212 PM AST TUE NOV 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM...
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM...

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 208 PM AST...ST THOMAS CONTROL TOWER PERSONNEL REPORTED A
FUNNEL CLOUD 5 TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT AND MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS FUNNEL CLOUD HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A WATERSPOUT AT ANY TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.