WTIO31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.7N 70.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 70.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.4N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 17.2N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.6N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.9N 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.9N 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 70.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ELEVATED OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY BIASED TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS WEAKENED SOME. VWS IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL,
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN ARABIAN SEA. THE
CYCLONE'S INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 2.5 DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (OR 35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, BUT
AT A MORE CONSERVATIVE RATE, BASED ON ALREADY-ELEVATED VWS.
EXCESSIVE VWS (JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL) WILL INITIATE WEAKENING AFTER
TAU 36. THE TRACK FORECAST MIRRORS AN OBJECTIVE AIDS PACKAGE THAT IS
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN PROGING A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK (ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE),
WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z,
102100Z AND 110300Z.//
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