Major landfalling storms since 1940

[Stormsfury]

This is a list of major U.S. landfalling hurricanes since 1940 ...

Two in 1945 - one in TX, one in FL. (both listed as Cat. 4's)
One in 1946 - Cat 4. Florida.
One in 1947 - Cat 4. South Florida (Andrew-like path) 155 mph winds at landfall.
Two in 1948 - Both in nearly identical locals as Cat 3. Florida.
Two in 1949 - Cat. 3 One in TX, One in Florida
None in 1950, despite 8 major hurricanes that year.
One in 1954 - Hazel - Cat 4. at landfall, SC/NC border
One in 1957 - Audrey - Cat 4. Louisiana
One in 1959 - Gracie - Cat 4. SC
One in 1960 - Donna - Cat 4. Florida - entire East Coast experiences hurricane force winds. (Many LR forecasters are using 1960 as an analog year this year in regards to the whole year) ... Donna was the only CV storm ...
One in 1961 - Carla - Cat. 4. TX coast - (very close to Cat. 5 - max winds before landfall were 150 kts.)
Three in 1964 - All Cat. 3's - Dora in NE Florida, Hilda in Louisiana, and Isbell in Southern Florida
One in 1965 - Betsy - Cat. 3 across Florida, Cat. 4 in Louisiana.
One in 1967 - Beulah - Cat. 3 officially/borderline Cat. 4 - responsible for the most tornadoes from one single TC. 114.
One in 1969 - Camille - Cat. 5 -LA/MS coast. 190 mph winds sustained.
There were no Cat 4 until Hugo in 1989-since then there's been Andrew in 1992
One in 1970 - Celia - Cat. 3 - TX coast.
One in 1973 - Carmen - Cat. 3 - LA
One in 1975 - Eloise - Cat. 3 - Florida Panhandle/AL Coast.
One in 1979 - Frederic - Cat. 3 (Borderline - Cat 4) - AL/MS Border
One in 1980 - Allen - Cat. 3 (South TX) - only storm to ever achieve Cat. 5 status on three separate occasions.
One in 1983 - Alicia - Cat. 3 (Galveston, TX)
One in 1985 - Elena - Cat. 3 (LA/MS) - Crazy tracking storm
One in 1989 - Hugo - Cat. 4 (Charleston, SC)
One in 1992 - Andrew - Cat. 5 (South Florida)/Cat. 3 - Louisiana
One in 1993 - Emily - Cat. 3 (Skirted the Outer Banks of NC)
One in 1995 - Opal - Cat. 3 (Florida Panhandle near Pensacola, FL)
One in 1996 - Fran - Cat. 3 (Near Wilmington, NC)
None in 1998 - Bonnie was close 110 mph at landfall
One in 1999 - Bret - Cat. 4 (South TX - least populated area of South TX)
It's been since Bret in 1999 since a Cat. 4 made landfall in the U.S.

Notice the frequency in the late 1940's - the early 1940's featured no landfalling major hurricanes.

There's no real correlation between CV storms vs. major storms. There's no correlation of major landfalling storms in the U.S. vs. El Niño/La Niña years.

The late 1940's and 1950's featured a frightening number of Cat. 3 and 4 landfalls, particularly in Florida.

On average of landfalling Cat. 4/5's vs the number of storms that do form are very low.

U.S. Landfalling Cat 4's-5's
1941-1950 - 4
1951-1960 - 4
1961-1970 - 2
1971-1980 - 0
1981-1990 - 1
1991-2000 - 2

SF

[Stephanie]

Hmmm...are we seeing an upward trend perhaps?

[ameriwx2003]

Storm, nice bit of info:):)

[JetMaxx]

The Florida Peninsula has been living on borrowed time for a long time...that won't continue forever.
When the major hurricane cycle returns to Florida, it will likely be similar to what the Carolinas experienced between 1984-1999 -- a landfalling major hurricane nearly every year for 15-20 years...except the hurricanes will be stronger (due to warmer sst's).

Look at what happened to the Carolinas:

Sep 1984 Diana (130 mph)
Sep 1985 Gloria (115-120 mph)
Sep 1989 Hugo (135-140 mph)
Aug 1991 Bob (near miss, but 115 mph winds just offshore Hatteras)
Aug 1993 Emily (115 mph)
Jul 1996 Bertha (105 mph)
Sep 1996 Fran (115-120 mph)
Aug 1998 Bonnie (110 mph)
Sep 1999 Floyd (105-110 mph)

Imagine this occurring in South/ Central Florida in a 15 year period....except add an average of 15 mph in wind speed (so many of these borderline cat 2/3 in NC will be borderline cat 3/4 in SoFla).

[ameriwx2003]

Jettmax. You are so right. I bought the book Florida's Hurricane History by Jay Barnes this year and it shows just how lucky Florida hs been lately and how often Florida has been struck in the past. If you live in Florida I think the book is a must read:):)

[JetMaxx]

Definitely ameriwx2003. It's the best Florida hurricane book I've ever read....a must for anyone living in or planning to move to the Sunshine State.

[ameriwx2003]

Jetmaxx( spelled it right this time) :):) I can only imagine the damage when major hurricanes start hitting the Florida Gold Coast again or when a major hurricane strikes the Tampa area again. Its not a matter of if but when.

[JetMaxx]

It's a very scary thought ameriwx2003. Even a 115-120 mph cat-3 like Fran or Opal will cause tens of billions in damage to a highly populated metro area the size of Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Palm Beach or Tampa-St Pete-Clearwater :o :o

[ameriwx2003]

Perry. You are right. Another scary thought is when a major hurricane takes a track through the state like the September hurricane of 1945. Also, if I remember correct I think the Tampa Bay area is rated the second most dangerous area for Storm surge behind New Orleans, Geez thats another scary thought a major hurricane striking New Orleans:):)

[Stormsfury]

Nice convo over here.

Florida was struck with frightening regularly by major storms in the late 1940's. Florida was struck by no less than 6 major hurricanes in a period from 1945-1949 and this doesn't count the numerous other storms both tropical storm and hurricanes below Cat. 3 strength.

We all saw the late 1990's when it was North Carolina's turn to be visited by many significant hurricanes. Emily in 1993 was a warmup so to speak, then came Felix in 1995, Bertha in 1996, Fran in 1996, Bonnie in 1998, and in 1999 Dennis, Floyd, and Irene.

2002-2003 - Louisiana has been the target of many TC's last year and with T.S. Bill this year.

Seems like it's some kind of pattern evolving here, and depending on the overall longwave pattern makes an area susceptible to multiple TC hits for several years.

SF

[JetMaxx]

In all honesty, Tampa Bay scares me even more than greater New Orleans....as difficult as some may find that to believe.

The population of Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota, and Pasco counties is more than twice that of metro New Orleans. Hundreds of thousands now live on low ground along the west coast of Florida; many on barrier islands less than 10' above sea level.

Add the fact a major hurricane hasn't struck Tampa Bay since 1921...or Sarasota since 1944. Its been so long in fact...that many think it can't or won't happen again in their lifetime. Those folks will likely be slow to evacuate if a hurricane warning is issued.

Combine those factors with average September sst's in the mid-upper 80's and a very shallow slope offshore (meaning a very large storm surge); and it spells catastrophe -- when it does eventually occur (and it will...just as it did in 1846, 1848, and 1921).

[ameriwx2003]

Perry. You are right about the increased population of this area.Even though I am inland I can tell you the overall the population in the tampa area take I will believe it when I see it attitude IMHO. Your correct about people being slow to evacuate and the shelter situation is a joke. Even inland counties like Polk would be a disaster and there are so many people in manufactured homes that would need to be evacuated. If one hit this year with the construction along I-4. whew lets hope it doesn't happen:):)

[wxman57]

When I travel around giving talks about hurricanes, I have a few slides I show abou major landfalls in Florida. Over the past 33 years, Florida has been hit by only 3 major hurricanes (only 1 on the FL Peninsula - Andrew). But in the PREVIOUS 25 years (1944-1969), Florida was hit by a major hurricane almost every other year (12 storms). The difference is that from 1970-1995 the Atlantic SSTs were below normal and major hurricanes were more rare. But there are A LOT more major hurricanes during the 20-40 year periods when the Atlantic is above normal, as began in 1995. Since 1995 there have been 29 major hurrianes, but only 3 made landfall! Climatology says 1 in 3 major storms should have made landfall. Florida and the rest of the U.S. has been VERY lucky in that the east coast trof has steered many of these major hurricanes out to sea since 1995. But that luck can't hold.

I show a graphic of tracks across Florida from 1970-1994 then a graphic of tracks across Florida from 1944-1969. You can't even see the FL Peninsula on the second graphic for all the landlfalling major storms. And that's the pattern we're moving into now. The thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic it strong once again. History says such warm Atlantic SST episodes last 25-40 years. That means decades of much greater than normal major hurricanes, and many more landfalls.

[Stormsfury]

(This also could put my active CV season prognostication in jeopardy).

The latest heat wave in Europe is being compared to ... 1947. Both 1947 and 1960 had one CV storm. That turned out to be the only CV storm that year and both made landfalls as powerful Cat. 4's, and both in Florida (1947, the near Cat. 5 took an Andrew like path and made a second landfall in Louisiana) and of course, in 1960, Donna ...
The 1947 CV storm developed around 15ºN, Donna developed around 10ºN.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane...947/4/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane...DONNA/track.gif

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/...Charts/1947.jpg
http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/...Charts/1960.jpg

There was also another Cat. 1 on the SE coast that made landfall in Savannah. That hurricane was seeded in 1947 - Project Cirrus - and details from the Hurricaneville.com website below.

Efforts in storm modification go as far back as the late 1940s when Dr. Irwin Langmuir began exploring the idea of using ice crystals to weaken storms such as hurricanes. In 1947, he organized a team of scientists from General Electric, and brought his idea to fruition with Project Cirrus.

The highlight of this effort occurred on October 13, 1947 when Langmuir and his team had a Navy plane fly into a hurricane off the coast of Georgia, and drop a payload of dry ice into it.

The hope of using dry ice was to release energy from the storm's inner core. and thus weaken the hurricane itself. It was originally considered a success. After the cloud seeding had taken place, the hurricane suddenly changed direction, and made landfall near the coastal city of Savannah, Georgia.

However, about a decade later, a scientist named Mook recognized that the storm's sudden change in direction was not caused by the seeding, but rather the upper level steering winds in the vicinity of the hurricane.

[Stormsfury]

These are major U.S. Landfalling storms I missed the first time.

Cat 3 in 1941 (near Miami, Fla.) -
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Cat. 3 in 1944 (Southwest Coast of Florida)
Carol in 1954 (Cat. 3)
Ethel in 1960 (Cat. 3) - LA coast/MS coast

Any other omissions are welcome.

[Amanzi]

I got this from my local emergency management department here in Flagler county. By looking at this list.. September makes me extremely nervous!!!! :o

Flagler county Hurricane Facts.

1960 Spetember - Donna
passed over Flagler with 105 mph sustained winds.

1964 Sepetember- Cleo
Significant flooding (1 fatality)

1964 September-Dora
Only hurricane on record to strike the upper 3east coast of Florida, making landfall at ST Augustine. Flagler was on the weaker side of the storm, but significant damage was reported in parts of the county as well as the loss of a 1,000 ft fishin pier.

1979 Spetember- David
Passed 50 Miles East of Flagler, but still managed to cause some wind damage and flooding.

1994 November- TS Gordon
7 inces of rain and and gusts to 50mph

1999 September- Floyd
Passed off our coast.
Gusts to 84mph sustained winds of 74mph. Damage reported as well as some flooding.

1999 September- Irene
Gusts to 74mph along the coast, some cosmetic damage

2001 September - TS Gabrielle
Dumped 10 inces of rain widewspread flooding, and an unusual surge in the intracoastal Waterway. Winds gusted to 64mph and TS conditions exsisted for 24 hours! Caused flooding and minor wind damage.

2002 September - TS Eduard
Very weak storm, made his point by proving we can get hit from that direction (northeast)!!!

[ameriwx2003]

WXMAN57. Great point!!!!. Yes , we have been very lucky. I look at the 25 billion dollars or so damage that Andrew did and where it hit. Andrew was a relatively small storm wind radius wise and hit in lighter populated area compared to say if it had came ashore from Miami to the PaLm Beach area. One can only imagine what the total damage would be with a storm say the size of A hurricane floyd striking the miami- West palm Beach corridor and hooking up through the state instead of shooting straight across like Andrew did quickly Its not Just a Florida problem, New Orleans getting struck by a major hurricane or a repeat of the Long island express now would be a disaster also. I guess its not if but when this will happen:):)

[JetMaxx]

As bad as Andrew was, Hugo would have been far worse....a much larger core of hurricane force winds; and if Hugo had slammed Florida near Homestead AFB...the northern edge of his 34 mile diameter eye would have passed over Miami and Miami Beach....what would that have meant?

A 934 mb hurricane as large as Hugo would have meant an 11-14' storm surge, which would have innundated Key Biscayne and Miami Beach...as well as the Miami Bayfront. Sustained winds of 135-140 mph (just before landfall, recon estimated 120 kts or 138 mph sustained), with peak gusts of 160-170 mph, and probably even higher among those skyscrapers along Brickell Bay....like a F3 tornado for several hours in a large highly populated urban city...with much of it under water :o

Also, Hugo produced 110 mph wind gusts along the Myrtle Beach beachfront, along with a 13' tide.....some 80 miles NE of the eye. That's what Palm Beach would have recieved (except a 10' surge..due to deeper water offshore PBI)...possibly even Jupiter and Stuart -- from a hurricane making landfall near Homestead.

It will happen someday...a large category 4 hurricane crossing south Florida. It happened in 1926...when Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Palm Beach....even Naples and Fort Myers were devastated by a hurricane very similar in scope to Hugo, except slightly stronger (935 mb and 140-150 mph sustained winds). Imagine a repeat today with over 8 million people in the path :o (it also crossed the GOM and caused major damage at Pensacola and Mobile as a 120-125 mph cat-3).

Floyd happened in 1928...or a Floyd-type monster. It slammed inland near PBI after killing thousands in Puerto Rico, the NE Caribbean, and the Bahamas. At landfall in Palm Beach county the central pressure was about 929 mb, winds likely 145-150 mph, gusting over 180. The eye was 25 miles across, and the hurricane plowed right across Florida from Palm Beach to Okeechobee to just west of Orlando then north to Jacksonville. Over 2000 died in the Lake Okeechobee area alone. It's estimated this monster was still a cat-3 hurricane as it passed west of Orlando....and probable IMO wind gusts exceeded 120 mph in Orlando, Disneyworld..and surrounding areas (and possible at Daytona Beach and in Brevard county too...at least near the beaches). Add 10-20...or more inches of rain and you see what horror a repeat today would mean....with millions in harms way.

It also happened again in 1947....a very large cat-4...similar to Hugo (940 mb, 135-140 mph) comes slowly across the northern Bahamas, then WSW into SE Florida, the 40 mile wide eye crossing Broward and southern Palm Beach counties. Hurricane force winds were experienced from Homestead all the way to Cape Canaveral....110 mph winds from North Miami to Jupiter Light. A gust of 155 mph was recorded at Hillsboro Light, and winds were probably stronger farther north. The storm surge was 11' in both Broward and Palm Beach counties. This monster hurricane crawled across south Florida -- exiting into the Gulf of Mexico near Naples, still a powerful hurricane (IMO 110-120 mph). Sustained hurricane force winds covered SW Florida from Everglades City to Bradenton....gusts over 80 mph in Tampa. Once in the Gulf, the large hurricane raced WNW and slammed into New Orleans.....even though only a cat-3 (961 mb and 115 mph), it produced devastation along the Lousiana and Mississippi Coast. Winds in downtown New Orleans were estimated to have gusted over 125 mph (anemometer blew away at 98 mph); and 120 mph gusts were recorded well inland at Baton Rouge (94 mph sustained). The storm surge at Gulfport harbor (Mississippi) was 14.8'...second only to Camille's record 20.1' at that location.

Between South FLorida and the New Orleans to Pascagoula areas, a repeat of this large and intense hurricane would today affect over 9 million people (IN THE EYEWALL!).

Three times.....at least three times it happened between 1926 and 1947....and someday it will happen again (and IMHO it will happen sooner rather than later).

[Stormsfury]

Thanks, JetMaxx. The 1926 storm that hit Florida adjusted to today's dollars due to inflation would have caused an estimated $90 BILLION dollars. This is the "San Felipe" Hurricane.

SF