SE TX/SW LA weather: Much cooler and WET after Tuesday
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Cool weekend-fall weather and dryer.
I notice a lot of rain coming from the south in GOM.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Cool weekend-fall weather and dryer.
Flood watch for south louisiana. One of the local tv stationshas been scrolling the flood watch info all evening.
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
LAZ028-029-031>033-041>045-051>055-091400-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.A.0002.091109T0600Z-091110T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...OAKDALE...
VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...JENNINGS...CROWLEY...
LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...
MORGAN CITY
811 PM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A
* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...
RAPIDES AND ST. LANDRY. IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...IBERIA...
LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. MARY AND UPPER ST. MARTIN.
IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...ACADIA...ALLEN...CALCASIEU...
CAMERON...JEFFERSON DAVIS AND VERMILION.
* FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
* THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND MOISTURE
FROM AN SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF HURRICANE IDA OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
* THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WITH A 3 TO 4 INCH AREA
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY
TUESDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.
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- southerngale
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What happened to the cold front we were supposed to get? I really haven't been paying that much attention and could have missed the cancellation of said cold front. Warm days and cool nights... not exactly bad weather, just wondering. It doesn't really feel like November... hoping it's going to be chilly for Thanksgiving!
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Re:
Front will move through Monday (16th). Good cooling behind the front with lows well into the 40's Tuesday and Wednesday mornings in Southeast Texas.southerngale wrote:What happened to the cold front we were supposed to get? I really haven't been paying that much attention and could have missed the cancellation of said cold front. Warm days and cool nights... not exactly bad weather, just wondering. It doesn't really feel like November... hoping it's going to be chilly for Thanksgiving!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Cool weekend-fall weather and dryer.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 PM CST THU NOV 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLE FALL WEATHER SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AND OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS TODAY
HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX WITH MAX TEMPS SO FAR
IN THE LOW/MID 70S. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO BEGIN. RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN IN
EARNEST FRI AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD HELP BRING GULF MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION SAT/SUN. MAX TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S.
OK, I just have to ask the question. Somebody please tell me what other season besides fall then would Houston experience temps from near 60F - 80F? Summer? Winter? Am I missing something?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 PM CST THU NOV 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLE FALL WEATHER SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AND OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS TODAY
HAVE BEEN NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF SE TX WITH MAX TEMPS SO FAR
IN THE LOW/MID 70S. FRI MORNING SHOULD BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SLOW TO BEGIN. RETURN FLOW SHOULD BEGIN IN
EARNEST FRI AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD HELP BRING GULF MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION SAT/SUN. MAX TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S.
OK, I just have to ask the question. Somebody please tell me what other season besides fall then would Houston experience temps from near 60F - 80F? Summer? Winter? Am I missing something?
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Cool weekend-fall weather and dryer.
jasons wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 PM CST THU NOV 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLE FALL WEATHER SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
Yeah but it's gumbo weather right now!
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- srainhoutx
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: Cool weekend-fall weather and dryer.
CajunMama wrote:jasons wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 PM CST THU NOV 12 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEASONABLE FALL WEATHER SHOULD COME TO AN END WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
Yeah but it's gumbo weather right now!
Looks like it's time to make some of my special homemade chili. Next week looks just perfect for some. Highs in the 50-60's and lows in the low 40's with some upper 30's possible.

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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: warm weekend-rain?-cool week
Showers are developing to our SW this morning and should countinue throughout the day as the trough slowly progresses across TX. Still thinking that there may be a chance of a line of showers/storms as the cold front approaches our area tomorrrow morning as the front passes. Behind the front it is going to feel rather chilly with CAA and strong northerly winds. The lowest temps that we have seen so far this fall season still look like they can occur on Tuesday and Wednesday morning with high pressure overhead.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: warm weekend-rain?-cool week
Line of showers/storms approaching the Houston Metro Area this morning. Front has passed College Station and will be near NW Harris County around 5:30/6:00 AM making for a messy morning rush hour. Don't forget those jackets today. 

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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: warm weekend-rain?-cool week
Email from Jeff concerning the upcoming week and into Thanksgiving Week which looks rather interesting...
Strong cold front crossed the area this morning ushering in one of the coldest air masses so far this season.
Cold front is through the outer coastal waters with strong cold air advection in place. Temperatures are struggling in the mid to upper 50’s N of I-10 and lower 60’s S of I-10 even as skies have cleared out. Upstream temps. are in the upper 40’s over NC TX with dewpoints in the mid 20’s and this air mass will advect southward into the region this afternoon.
Will see gusty NW winds subside to less than 10mph tonight inland while they will remain in the 15-25mph range along the coast due to the cold air striking the still warm Gulf waters. Under clear skies, lighter winds, and low dewpoints, overnight temperatures will fall toward the 30’s and 40’s. Parameters seem to be in place for a few locations across our N and W counties as well as sheltered valley’s to drop into the mid 30’s. Will probably see some of these locations have a layer of frost especially in the colder locations such as Conroe.
I would typically go with the colder readings on night two behind a front, however clouds may increase Tuesday night resulting in less radiational cooling than late tonight. Upper flow becomes increasing progressive and more amplified than the past few weeks with strong systems deepening and fronts becoming more defined. Additionally, location of high latitude features begins to change toward early next week allowing the movement of arctic air southward into the US.
Short wave will cross the area Thursday-Friday and this will swing the current front back northward as a warm front. Some degree of warm air advection upglide above the retreating surface cold dome appears likely…to what degree and how much QPF if any is generated is for debate. GFS MOS rain chances are near 75% for Friday while most other guidance is considerably lower. For now will go with an increase in clouds as overrunning pattern commences Thursday and then at least a 30% chance of rain by Thursday PM into Friday.
Next event comes into play after a dry and warm Saturday. Long wave trough digs into the SW US while sub-tropical jet stream becomes increasing active. First system will cross the area Sun-Mon with showers and thunderstorms and a strong frontal passage…likely similar to today….but maybe no clearing as the main trough remains to our west.
Long wave trough remains over the western US next week with the base reloading the next system and sending it out Wed-Fri. Low level cold air mass looks firmly entrenched over much of TX with GFS 850mb 0C line across NC TX on Thanksgiving Day. Pattern looks favorable for a widespread overrunning rainfall event along with cold surface temperatures. Locations across NW TX and N TX could see P-type issues if surface temperatures are in 30’s. Southward in our region a cold and wet holiday appears to be shaping up…but then again this is over a week away and guidance may not be handling this upcoming pattern change well….ENSO years also tend to have slower systems ejecting out of the SW which plays havoc with forecast timing at the longer range. Even colder conditions may be looming toward early December as more Arctic air is unleashed southward.
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- southerngale
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I'd like a chilly Thanksgiving, but I'd like to cancel any possible precip for that day, please. This will be the first year ever that I'm hosting Thanksgiving (finally bought a house big enough last November) and it would be nice for all the kids/grown-up kids to be able to play outside, tossing a football around, etc. I have a rather large yard and please... they can't stay indoors ALL day! 
Cool, sunny weather = my perfect Thanksgiving weather
(unless of course, you can send me some snow... snow trumps everything!)

Cool, sunny weather = my perfect Thanksgiving weather
(unless of course, you can send me some snow... snow trumps everything!)
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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: warm weekend-rain?-cool week

39 at Hooks this morning and I was at 39.6. Maybe some frost around the area tomorrow. A Very Interesting e-mail from Jeff concerning Friday and Thanksgiving Week...

Cold morning across the region with lows falling into the upper 30’s across our northern counties and out west. A few locations especially out west likely fell to freezing in the river valleys.
Main forecast items are temperatures tonight and then the storm system for Thursday/Friday. We did not go completely calm last night, except for a few locations around Matagorda Bay, so maximum radiational cooling was not experienced. Typically the second night behind a cold front is the coldest and that would be tonight. Initial thoughts yesterday was that cloud cover may invade tonight, however upstream water vapor and IR images show no clouds over N Mexico, so near excellent cooling conditions will be felt tonight. After pouring over site specific guidance numbers for tonight the coldest I could find was 35 at Conroe. The NAM was running about a degree or two cooler than the GFS. Will side with the colder NAM and expect widespread lows in the upper 30’s at many locations and mid 30’s N of I-10 and E of I-45 where surface high will be strongest. Given cold air drainage into the low areas such as rivers and valleys, a few locations could touch freezing, but widespread freezing temperatures are not expected.
Changes begin in earnest Wednesday as a southern stream short wave off the S CA coast quickly amplifies and moves eastward into N Mexico. Aggressive return flow above the retreating surface ridge is expected as pressures lower in the lee of the southern Rockies. This bodes well for isentropic upglide above the eroding cold dome at the surface. The western Gulf has been heavily scoured by the latest frontal passage and it will take some time to return a juicy air mass. Expect only a modified Gulf air mass to return to the TX coastal plain with this event however upper level dynamics and favorable position of a 90kt upper level jet will support widespread showers and even a few thunderstorms. GFS holds most of the heaviest rainfall offshore while the NAM is more inland. Feel the GFS may be suffering from convective feedback and will side with the more widespread but lighter NAM QPF. Showers should begin late Thursday and end from the west to the east Friday as the short wave moves east of the region.
Ridging builds in for the weekend with flow returning onshore so little to no cooling behind the Friday system. Models have greatly slowed the next storm system slated yesterday for Sunday and now do not show a frontal passage until early Tuesday. This system looks fairly week and appears to be the tip of a significant upper air pattern change for Thanksgiving week and beyond.
Extremely cold air has bottled itself in Canada with current temps. running around -40F. Upper air pattern will begin to buckle early to mid next week with a strong polar boundary plowing southward down the front range of the Rockies. Cold air should invade the state Tuesday and push off the coast Wed/Thur. Active sub-tropical flow will overrun this surface cold dome setting up widespread clouds and rainfall in the cold air. Models continue to wafer around with the timing of the cold air arrival and onset/duration of the overrunning event. At this point it looks wet and cold Thanksgiving-the holiday weekend.
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Extremely cold air has bottled itself in Canada with current temps. running around -40F. Upper air pattern will begin to buckle early to mid next week with a strong polar boundary plowing southward down the front range of the Rockies.
Yer REALLY not making my day srainhoutx!!!!!!!!!!!

It's currently predicted to be 15°C/59°F




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Re: SE TX/SW LA weather: warm weekend-rain?-cool week
Morning e-mail from Jeff... and I'm not liking the trends one bit...

Quick update this morning on strong storm system to affect the area Thursday -Friday.
Upper level storm system will deepen and move into TX Thursday evening forcing coastal surface trough and low pressure off the middle TX coast. Latest guidance shows widespread rains...some heavy Friday as the surface low deepens S of Matagorda Bay and begins to move E. Winds will greatly increase over the N Gulf with strong E flow developing building swells to near 10 feet and piling water on to the coast. Lunar tides are already running 1-2 feet above normal and additional water level run-up will support tides going 3.0-4.5 feet above normal Friday. Tides of these levels will cause some concern on Bolivar and the west end of Galveston and Matagorda Peninsula. Overwash and beach erosion is likely with some flooding at Rollover Pass, Jamaica Beach, and low lying locations around Galveston and Matagorda Bays.
Current models show highest QPF of 3-5 inches along the coast and offshore...but the trend has been to bring this area of heavier rains closer to the coast. Upper level feature continue to trend stronger and deeper enhancing the threat for more lift and extending the rainfall now into Friday night. Will need to watch these trends and if they continue...amounts of 1-2 inches currently will need to be bumped up and flooding/flash flooding may become possible.
Adverse conditions will onset over the waters Thursday evening with rains developing toward sunrise Friday. Friday high tides will be the main coastal issues along with strong E to ESE winds. Coastal warm front should remain offshore with any severe threat out in the Gulf..but this needs watch also as any northward shift could bring the warm sector inland with a tornado threat.
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