Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 PM AST WED NOV 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHINESS...
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST LATER THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST A
PART OF FRIDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY
OR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLOWLY
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AND IS THEN STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER NEARBY (MOST LIKELY
NORTHWEST HALF OF FA) FOR LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY PUSHING THIS
MOISTURE "BACK" ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS (SIMILAR TO PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH)...WITH COLD FRONTAL MOISTURE THEN OUTLOOKED ACROSS THE FA
FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME.

SO...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS NOT
BEEN WIDESPREAD...SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED HAVE BEEN
INTENSE...WITH VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH OUR
FEELING TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT HAS BEEN THAT A SIGNIFICANT AND/OR
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS NOT LIKELY...GIVEN WSR-88D AND
SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AND
CERTAINLY URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME LOCALIZED FLASH OR
RIVER FLOODING. FOR THIS REASON...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW.

FOR LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERIODS OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ARE STILL EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE LINGERS NEARBY AND
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL PROCESSES.
ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SURE AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...COULD BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN FOR AT
LEAST A TIME...AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO OR ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH 4 AM AST
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND TAF SITES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALLY
IFR CONDITIONS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE IN BANDS AND PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST 12/01Z. ANY VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM
SHOULD MOVE NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND COULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME AN ISSUE FOR TIST AND TISX.

&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON THE MARINE ZONE. LONG
PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS HAVE PEAKED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

[cycloneye]

Puerto Rico didnt see widespread rains today and that was good.But still there is plenty of humid air around so lets see what happens tonight.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 PM AST WED NOV 11 2009

PRC059-111-113-121-153-120030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0378.091111T2134Z-091112T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SABANA GRANDE PR-YAUCO PR-GUAYANILLA PR-PONCE PR-PENUELAS PR-
534 PM AST WED NOV 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
SABANA GRANDE...YAUCO...GUAYANILLA...PONCE AND PENUELAS

* UNTIL 830 PM AST

* AT 530 PM AST NWS DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
AREAS...MAINLY FROM PENUELAS WEST TO YAUCO. THESE SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
711 PM AST WED NOV 11 2009

PRC043-075-113-133-149-120115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0379.091111T2311Z-091112T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COAMO PR-VILLALBA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PONCE PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-
711 PM AST WED NOV 11 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COAMO...VILLALBA...JUANA DIAZ...PONCE AND SANTA ISABEL

* UNTIL 915 PM AST

* AT 710 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THESE
AREAS...MAINLY THE MUNICIPALITIES OF JUANA DIAZ AND PONCE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST WED NOV 11 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF IDA. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
REMAINS LIMITED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AROUND
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT IS
ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE ON THURSDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Humid pattern still is with us so lets see how all unfolds.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST THU NOV 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FURTHER EAST
NORTHEAST WHILE FILLING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A WEST NORTHWEST
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC...AND ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARDS
TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE... FROM A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE EAST ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS AND JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL REGION. THIS LOW LEVEL PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AN SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND MAINLY IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LATER DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...WHICH MAY AGAIN LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
SOME AREAS. ONCE AGAIN MUDSLIDES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF
STEP TERRAIN ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SOIL REMAINS FAIRLY SATURATED
DUE TO RECENT RAIN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS.

LONG TERM...THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM IDA NOW ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES...WILL MERGE WITH THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY...THEN
PUSH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS PANS OUT...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN FRONTAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY/SHEARLINE IS FORECAST TO SINK FURTHER SOUTH
AND CLOSER TO THE REGION. STILL SOME WAYS OUT SO WILL JUST MONITOR
AND SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS OVER NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCAL TAF SITES
DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12/1600Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA.
TJSJ 12/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BUT STILL LIGHT
FROM 10K-20K FEET AND THEN WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE THAT LEVEL.

[msbee]

when is this "stuff" supposed to move away?
I am tired of cloudy overcast skies and high humidity and absolutely no wind .

[cycloneye]

when is this "stuff" supposed to move away?
I am tired of cloudy overcast skies and high humidity and absolutely no wind .

That is all part of ex invest 98L big tail from the low pressure.As that low moves northward,conditions in the NE Caribbean will slowly improve.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST THU NOV 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL AGAIN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN PROBABLY CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SLOWLY
NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...WITH AN OVERALL
"DRIER" PATTERN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...
WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE LOCAL ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROBABLY
PUSHING THIS MOISTURE "BACK" ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS (SIMILAR TO
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)...WITH COLD FRONTAL MOISTURE THEN OUTLOOKED
ACROSS THE FA FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR MORE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

SO...FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY ALSO...LIMITED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW EXPECTED EACH DAY IN DIURNALLY AND
NOCTURNALLY FAVORED AREAS. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SURE AT
THIS TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COULD BECOME
ACTIVE AGAIN FOR AT LEAST A TIME...AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCAL
TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS TJBQ
AND TJMZ IN SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA...AT LEAST
THROUGH 12/22Z. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TJPS...TIST...AND
TIST. VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A HAZARD FOR AT LEAST TKPK AND POSSIBLY TNCM THROUGH AT LEAST
12/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THOUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST FRI NOV 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. THE REMNANTS/FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND INDUCED TROUGH
IS TO THEN SINK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PUSHES WEAKLY NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A DEEP LAYERED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EVENTUALLY SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED TUTT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA...
EXPECT LESS UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE/SKEW-T STILL SUGGEST PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.70 TO 1.85 INCHES. ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
OF AN OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS AND INDUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

EXPECT THE WEATHER PATTERN TO SLIGHTLY CHANGE LATE SUNDAY INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS POLAR TROUGH/OLD FRONTAL ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED FURTHER
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND ANOTHER TUTT LOW OVER THE AREA...WILL INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A DRYING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCAL
TAF SITES DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AFTER 13/1700Z...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ IN SCATTERED PASSING SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA. TJSJ 13/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT SOUTHERN
WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K FEET...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
BUT STILL LIGHT FROM 10K-20K FEET AND THEN WEST NORTHWEST AND
STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST FRI NOV 13 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN U.S COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST. THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...SOUTH SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR MOVED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. IN FACT...MIMIC TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED THAT THE
LOCAL AREA IS UNDER A SLOT OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE NORTH COAST AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WILL LAST EVEN MORE. REFER TO CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE EASTERN U.S
COAST...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION. IN THE LONG TERM...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL TEND TO LOWER THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...AN ASH PLUME IS SEEN ON LATEST VIS AND MODIS IMAGERY
EXTENDING ABOUT 130 NMI TO THE WNW OF THE VOLCANO. DIFFUSE ASH MIGHT
EXTEND FURTHER WNW TO JUST EAST OF PR. FOR NOW WILL CARRY VOLCANIC
ASH FOR TISX AND MONITOR CLOSELY FOR TJSJ/TIST. JBQ LIKELY TO SEE A
TSRA GIVEN SE STEERING FLOW AND HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR THEM. ALL
OTHERS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE WITH VA THE ONLY CONCERN AT TIST/TISX
AND TJSJ.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD MAXT SET TODAY AT LMM AIRPORT WITH 91F. THIS BROKE
THE OLD RECORD SET BACK IN 1994. ALSO OF INTEREST IS DATA FOR SJU
FOR LAST YEAR NOVEMBER 2008 LMM AIRPORT DID NOT SEE ANY READINGS
ABOVE 90F. WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW FCST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
UPPER TROUGH OVR THE WRN ATLC CLEARS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE A STRETCH OF PROBABLY FIVE DAYS WITH TEMPS ABOVE 90F.
THE RECORD FOR MOST READINGS WITH 90F OR MORE IS SEVEN BACK IN NOV
1983 AND THE AVERAGE IS 1.4. SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAS ONLY BEEN
TWO DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST SAT NOV 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE
WEAKENS. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS A DRY AIR MASS
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING SAN JUAN THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD...
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHED FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ACCORDINGLY TO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS COMPUTER MODELS...THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SE-SW
DIRECTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...BECOMING FROM
THE NORTH NORTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK...LOWERING THE TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A NEW NORTH SWELL
SURGE WILL REACH THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS BY MONDAY BUT NOT HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR LOCAL TAF SITES DURING
THE MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW AFTN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
BTWN 14/18-22Z MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...WITH BRIEF OF MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF TJBQ AND TJMZ DUE TO PASSING SHRA. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT...BCMG MORE
WESTERLY ABV 20 KFT. RECENT REPORTS FROM THE TRPG SOUFRIERE HILLS
VOLCANO INDICATED CONTINUED LOW LEVEL EMISSIONS. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT ASH PLUME VISIBLE AT THIS TIME. PRESENT SE-SW WIND FLOW
BTWN 5-15 KFT SHOULD KEEP GAS AND STEAM EMISSIONS IF ANY JUST EAST
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND W OF NORTHERN LEEWARDS. REFER TO
LATEST SIGMET DELTA 8 AND/OR VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORIES FOR UPDATES.

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

I like the looks of that picture Gusty
looks like clear sailing for the whole Caribbean right now.

[cycloneye]

Barbara,good weather this weekend but things will change by monday as a front moves thru.I like cold fronts because the temperatures go down.

[msbee]

good mornign Luis
Actually I like cold fronts too. I love these cooler temps we have during our "winter" months

[Gustywind]

I like the looks of that picture Gusty
looks like clear sailing for the whole Caribbean right now.

Tkanks Barbara i appreciate too .

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
105 PM AST SAT NOV 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES OFF THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY ESE. THE ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
LATE TUE OR WED. MEANWHILE...SRLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPS FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER TROUGH NOW DIGGING SE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING OVER THE TURKS
CAICOS. REGION STILL UNDER PRE-FRONTAL RIDGING AHEAD OF TROUGH
AXIS...BUT THAT RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO ERODE...A PROCESS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STILL SUFFICIENT WARM AIR TO CAP
THE LOW LAYERS THIS AFTERNOON...INHIBITING CONVECTION. EXPECTING
BEST CONVERGENCE ON TAIL END OF TROUGH TO REMAIN NW OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING COVERAGE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHEAST
FLOW IN THE MEANTIME...WILL ACCOUNT FOR TEMPS AND DEW POINT A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST COAST OF PR AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF PR/USVI. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST...BUT
LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESS TO LINGER MORE OR LESS DUE NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO A FEW HUNDRED MILES FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...N ASH PLUME CAN BE SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY EXTENDING NW
FROM THE SOURCE AS FAR NORTH AS TORTOLA IN THE BVI. VAAC GUIDANCE
KEEPS VA IN BETWEEN TAF SITES BUT COULD GET CLOSE TO TKPK LATER
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[Gustywind]

Good morning to all.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150914
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WHILE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH HAS BECOME DIFFUSE AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.
THIS MOISTURE WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND ACROSS INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HIGHER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THEN WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WEAK AND DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL BE PUSHED
FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. LIMITED CLOUDS OR CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH AT THIS TIME.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS COMPUTER MODELS...INDICATED THAT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH GFS LAYER PW VALUES OF AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THESE VALUES WILL
DECREASE BY MONDAY TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND WILL DECREASE FURTHER
BY TUESDAY TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE SE DIRECTION THROUGH THE MOST PART OF THE WEEK. A NEW
NORTH SWELL SURGE HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT AT THIS MOMENT...NOT HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...A PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDS TO TISX...TIST...TUPJ AND SURROUNDING WATERS AS WELL AS VCNTY
OF TNCM AND TKPK AT LEAST UNTIL 15/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WILL HOWEVER
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 15/14Z. A
LIGHT SE LOW LVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLYING AREA AND MAY
SEE SOME VA GAS EMISSIONS AND STEAM FROM THE MONTSERRAT VOLCANO
ENROUTE BTWN TRPG... TKPK AND TISX DURNG LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN ADDITION... A VCSH OR VCTS WILL BE LIKELY OVR AND AROUND
TJSJ AND TJBQ BTWN 15/18-22Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL SITES DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 86 73 / 30 20 40 40
STT 86 77 84 76 / 30 20 50 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72

[Gustywind]