Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

It looks like the weak front wont cross to the south of the NE Caribbean islands,but to turn stationary just to the north.Lets see if the close proximity sends some rain and turn the winds more east to northeast bringing some lower temps.It looks like there will be plenty of convergence to cause plenty of rain activity this afternoon over parts of Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
107 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

PRC021-031-033-061-127-152000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0380.091115T1707Z-091115T2000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
107 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...GUAYNABO...CAROLINA...CATANO AND SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 400 PM AST

* AT 106 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY RAIN IN THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC021-033-061-127-152030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0057.091115T1738Z-091115T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
138 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
GUAYNABO
CATANO
SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 136 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER HATO REY.

IN ADDITION...THE RIO PIEDRAS RIVER NEAR HATO REY WAS AT 8.86 FEET
AND RISING RAPIDLY AND FLOOD STAGE IS 15 FEET. CURRENT PROJECTIONS
BRINGS THE RIVER JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.


DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
142 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

PRC013-017-027-051-054-065-071-091-115-135-137-143-145-152045-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0381.091115T1742Z-091115T2045Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ISABELA PR-FLORIDA PR-TOA ALTA PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
DORADO PR-BARCELONETA PR-CAMUY PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-ARECIBO PR-
142 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ISABELA...FLORIDA...TOA ALTA...QUEBRADILLAS...VEGA ALTA...
DORADO...BARCELONETA...CAMUY...HATILLO...MANATI...VEGA BAJA...
TOA BAJA AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 445 PM AST

* AT 142 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY RAIN OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN COASTAL PUERTO RICO...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF UP TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MINOR FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS EXPECTED.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6699 1851 6703 1846 6621 1836 6621

$$

RA

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC061-127-152115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0058.091115T1820Z-091115T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
220 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYNABO
SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 515 PM AST

* AT 217 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
SAN JUAN SPECIFICALLY RIO PIEDRAS.

A USGS RIVER GAGE AT THE RIO PIEDRAS RIVER AT RIO PIEDRAS INDICATED
THE RIVER AT 10.56 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY AND FLOOD STAGE IS 11
FEET. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BRING THE RIVER QUICKLY ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6613 1836 6603 1832 6603 1831 6612

$$

ROSA

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

PRC061-127-152115-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0058.000000T0000Z-091115T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
249 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM AST FOR SAN
JUAN AND GUAYNABO MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 245 PM AST...RIVER GAGES ON THE RIO PIEDRAS INDICATE MAJOR
FLOODING IS NOW OCCURRING OVER UPPER PORTIONS OF THE RIVER...NEAR
MONTEHIEDRA. THESE WATERS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM...IN LOW LYING URBAN AREAS OF RIO PIEDRAS. IF YOU ARE
NEAR THIS RIVER...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6613 1836 6603 1832 6603 1831 6612

$$

RA

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

PRC007-025-045-063-152200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0382.091115T1902Z-091115T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-COMERIO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-GURABO PR-
302 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...COMERIO...AGUAS BUENAS AND GURABO

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 301 PM AST TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
CAGUAS AND THE EAST CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO. THESE STORMS
HAVE ALREADY CAUSED MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
EXPECT UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IN THE
EVENT A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

Wow,with this statement it reaches 7 for this afternoons event.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

AMZ710-712-715-152200-
306 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...

AT 302 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS... OVER COASTAL
WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM...OR ABOUT 25 NM WEST OF
CABO SAN JUAN. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 1895 6531 1844 6564 1841 6575 1848 6608
1850 6659 1915 6637

[cycloneye]

More warnings out.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
345 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS
CIDRA
AGUAS BUENAS

* UNTIL 645 PM AST

* AT 341 PM AST...RIVER GAGES ALONG THE RIO CANAS IN CIDRA AND AGUAS
BUENAS ARE INDICATING MODERATE FLOODING. RECORD BREAKING FLOODING
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN AREAS ALONG THE RIO PIEDRAS FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS IS A SERIOUS FLOOD EVENT...IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 151942
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TUE WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FLASH FLOODING HAS KEPT ME BUSY THIS SHIFT SO WILL
BE SHORT HERE. MODELS KEEP SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WED BUT SHOW IT WEAKENING WITH TIME. SO THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS WITH THE
CHANCE OF SETTING NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WINDS REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND IN THE LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE AND EXPECTED EASTWARD SHIFT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THINGS SHOULD NOT BE AS BAD AS THEY WERE TODAY. NCOAST SEA BREEZE
INTRUSION DURING EACH AFTERNOON MAY NOT ALLOW MUCH OFFSHORE
MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION RESULTING IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION THAT COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SO A THING TO WATCH
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

BY LATE WED...WINDS TURN NRLY AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE WELL EAST
OF THE AREA THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BE KEPT AT A MINIMUM.
ATMOSPHERE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
CAP EXPECTED TO STRENGHTEN/LOWER TO 750MB THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WOULD BE SHALLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VOLCANISH ASH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH WED AS
STEERING WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH. TKPK/TNCM WILL BE AT
GREATEST RISK OF SEEING ANY ASH DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. VCTS
POSSIBLE AT JMZ/JBQ NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...5 FT SEAS OR LESS FOR UNPROTECTED WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD FOR TODAY AT SJU HAS BEEN TIED WITH 90F. THERE
WILL BE MORE OPPORTUNITIES THIS WEEK TO TIE OR BREAK MORE RECORDS
AS WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH PROMOTING COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NEW RECORD RIVER STAGES SET AT THE RIO PIEDRAS RIVER
AT BOTH HATO REY AND RIO PIEDRAS. AT HATO REY...THE NEW RECORD IS
22.55 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS OF 22.11
FEET DURING HURRICANE HORTENSE IN SEPT. 1996.

AT RIO PIEDRAS AT RIO PIEDRAS...THE NEW RECORD IS 16.49 FEET AND
STILL RISING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 16.06 FEET ON AUGUST
24 IN 1988.

REFER TO LATEST FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE UPDATED INFORMATION.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
GUAYNABO
CATANO
SAN JUAN

* UNTIL 730 PM AST

* AT 407 PM AST...HEAVY RAINS HAVE ENDED...BUT RECORD FLOODING
CONTINUES IN THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. RIVER GAGES INDICATE RECORD
FLOOD LEVELS REACHED DURING HURRICANE HORTENSE IN 1996 HAVE BEEN
BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON BY OVER 1 FOOT ON THE RIO PIEDRAS FROM CUPEY
TO HATO REY. SEVERAL ROADS ARE CLOSED AND MAJOR FLOODING HAS CAUSED
DISRUPTION THROUGHOUT THE GUAYNABO AND HATO REY AREAS.

THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS FLOOD EVENT...NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

FLOOD WATERS APPEAR TO BE CRESTING NOW. THE RIO PIEDRAS IN HATO REY
REACHED 23.42 FEET AT 4:00 PM AST. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 22.11 FEET DURING HURRICANE HORTENSE IN 1996. EXPECT WATERS TO
SLOWLY RECEDE OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS...WHILE LEVELS REMAIN AT
MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.

[msbee]

Weather Forecast for the SSS Islands valid until Monday evening 18:00 hours November 16, 2009.
Last updated: Sunday, November 15, 2009 16:00 A.S.T. (20:00 UTC).
Weather:
Remainder of today through Monday: Variably cloudy with a few showers and a risk of a thunderstorm. Showers could locally be heavy.

Forecast high will be 32 °C, 90 °F. and low about 25 °C, 77 °F.
Sunrise will occur at 6:19 A.M. and sunset at 5:35 P.M.

Winds:
Today and Monday: Southeast, 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Synopsis:
The area of low pressure over the Northwest Atlantic moves slowly Southwest and continues to extend into the overall Northern Caribbean bringing possibly more clouds and shower activity over the islands and surroundings. Winds will be gentle to moderate from the Southeast and could likely become variable or even calm at times. Moreover, the weak wind flow will also continue to promote higher than normal temperatures across the area. Otherwise, the Marine Forecast Guidance still suggest that a surge of Northwest modest swells will move in over the Northern local waters later tonight. For this reason, expect a somewhat higher wave action mainly over the Northern coastal waters with waves peaking to about 6 feet.

Sea Conditions: Tranquil to locally moderate with wave heights between 2 and 6 feet. The highest wave action will be in breakers along the Northern waters.

Tropical weather: None.

Special Features: Activity at the Soufrière Hills in Montserrat continues at a high level with occasional light to moderate ash fall over parts of Montserrat and close surroundings. A weak Southeast to South air flow slowly brings an area of light ash close or even over the Southern portion of the local area but the ash plume remains of a minimal concentration.

Outlook until Tuesday evening: Generally partly cloudy skies with a couple of local showers.

Forecaster: Coffie

The next weather forecast will be issued on Sunday at 17:00 AST (21:00 UTC).

[cycloneye]

The rains over the San Juan metroflex has stopped but not before causing extensive floodings in several areas.Over 4 inches fell in 3 hours causing streams and some rivers to go out of their banks.Massive traffic jams occured in some of the main highways as some lanes were flooded.And this was only a thunderstorm,imagine if it was a Tropical Depression,storm or hurricane.

[msbee]

That's what a lot of people don't understand. How just a strong thunderstorm can cause the islands a lot of problems.
This is a PR report from stormcarib:


Flood over metropolitan San Juan area after heavy rain and thunderstorms

* By Francisco Echegaray <fechegaray at hotmail.com>
* Date: Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:52:45 +0000

Strong rains ocurred this afternoon in the metropolitan San Juan zone that provoked the closing of several routes, the overflowing of the river Piedras and floods in hearths and business establishments. The commercial center San Patricio Plaza, in Guaynabo, had to be closed. Some establishments of the first level were flooded and remained without service of electrical energy. The intense rain provoked urban floods in zones of little drainage in the area of Puerto Nuevo and next to the commercial center Plaza Las Americas in San Juan. The National Weather Service explained that a thunderstorm was due to a low pressure system combined with the daily heat and humidity. In addition it was also informed that in the area of Cupey toward the south of San Juan, the rain was most intense, registering a remarkable 5 inches in a period of 2 hours. It is expected that rains will continue until early evening, though the strongest part already passed. Meterorologist Ernesto morales warned that for tomorrow there are similar conditions as those of today so more thunderstoms and rain are expected.

For Spanish translation and photos go to : http://www.elnuevodia.com/inundacionesp ... 38129.html

[cycloneye]

That's what a lot of people don't understand. How just a strong thunderstorm can cause the islands a lot of problems.
This is a PR report from stormcarib:


Flood over metropolitan San Juan area after heavy rain and thunderstorms

* By Francisco Echegaray <fechegaray at hotmail.com>
* Date: Sun, 15 Nov 2009 20:52:45 +0000

Strong rains ocurred this afternoon in the metropolitan San Juan zone that provoked the closing of several routes, the overflowing of the river Piedras and floods in hearths and business establishments. The commercial center San Patricio Plaza, in Guaynabo, had to be closed. Some establishments of the first level were flooded and remained without service of electrical energy. The intense rain provoked urban floods in zones of little drainage in the area of Puerto Nuevo and next to the commercial center Plaza Las Americas in San Juan. The National Weather Service explained that a thunderstorm was due to a low pressure system combined with the daily heat and humidity. In addition it was also informed that in the area of Cupey toward the south of San Juan, the rain was most intense, registering a remarkable 5 inches in a period of 2 hours. It is expected that rains will continue until early evening, though the strongest part already passed. Meterorologist Ernesto morales warned that for tomorrow there are similar conditions as those of today so more thunderstoms and rain are expected.

For Spanish translation and photos go to : http://www.elnuevodia.com/inundacionesp ... 38129.html

That was a great complete report about what occured here this afternoon.This may tell the goverment here that the planification of how to construct things may have to be revisited as the course of streams and rivers haved changed because of many construction projects.

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.It looks like another active day on Monday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1044 PM AST SUN NOV 15 2009

.UPDATE... A AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN TIP
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SPANISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY WESTWARD
TOWARD THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SOME OF THESE HAD
BECOME SATURATED DUE TO SHOWERS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE GRIDS TO INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TIST...TISX
(US VIRGIN ISLANDS) AND TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ (PR) FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE TOWARD
THE NORTH NORTHEAST. REST OF LOCAL TAF SITES TO OBSERVE VFR. DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BRIEF MVFR AND IFR...OVER TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ
AND TJSJ AS UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.A very active day ahead

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 160950
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST MON NOV 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION AT
LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER AIR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND LATELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
PUERTO RICO. AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
OVERNIGHT FOR VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...AND WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL
8:30 AM AST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS OVER BOTH
ISLANDS/MUNICIPALITIES. ALSO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS STARTING AT
11 AM AST. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM...IS NOT EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THE NAM12 MODEL BRINGS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY...AND IS
FORECASTING A GOOD DEAL OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. MEANWHILE...THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL
TENDS TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE...BUT OVERALL...SHOWS NICE MOISTURE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY
COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND WILL
PUSH THE REMNANT OF THIS FRONT TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST. DRIER
AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LATEST PROGNOSIS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL DROP FROM OVER 2.0 INCHES
TODAY...TO NEAR 1.28 INCHES BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT DOES
NOT LOOKS ANY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW. PEOPLE LIVING IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING
AREAS...AND BE CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND
UNDERPASSES. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN. STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO PUERTO RICO IS BRINGING
AREA-WIDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIED BY IFR VISIBILITIES AND SOME MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARBY AND CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH
17/04Z. MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS BELOW
12 THOUSAND FEET ARE ARE SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 TO 30 KTS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...DUE TO ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...AND SATURATED
SOIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA...QUICK RIVER RISES AND LOCAL FLOODING
ALONG THE RIVERS AND ITS SURROUNDING TRIBUTARIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST MON NOV 16 2009

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-162030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0014.091116T1500Z-091117T1000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
419 AM AST MON NOV 16 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM AST THIS MORNING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN PUERTO RICO...
CENTRAL INTERIOR...CULEBRA...EASTERN INTERIOR...MAYAGUEZ AND
VICINITY...NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST...NORTHWEST...PONCE AND
VICINITY...SAN JUAN AND VICINITY...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHWEST...
VIEQUES AND WESTERN INTERIOR. IN VIRGIN ISLANDS...ST CROIX AND
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

* FROM 11 AM AST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH...A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST
NORTHWEST AND COPIOUS MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE MOIST AIR AND...WITH LIGHT LOWER
LEVEL WINDS...WILL MOVE SLOWLY IF AT ALL. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN A NUMBER OF AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO.

* FLOODING MAY CAUSE LOCAL RIVERS TO RISE RAPIDLY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE NORTH COAST...NORTH COASTAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.
THE RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG A BAND THAT WILL REACH THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
726 AM AST MON NOV 16 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
CULEBRA

* UNTIL 1030 AM AST

* AT 724 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL HOURS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL HAS CREATED THE LIKELIHOOD OF
FLASH FLOODING IN CULEBRA. EXPECT TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
OVER 5 INCHES TO PRODUCE RAPID FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...DRY
GUTS...AND URBAN AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 160947
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST MON NOV 16 2009

SHOWERS CONTINUED TO LEAVE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN ACROSS
SAINT THOMAS AND BANDS OF RAIN ARE SET TO CROSS OR BRUSH BY TO THE
WEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT SAINT CROIX THE
RAINGAGE INDICATED ONE TENTH INCH HAD FALLEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES
WERE VARIABLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR
SEA LEVEL AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WINDS WERE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING IN CONCERT WITH THE TROUGH OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE AREA INCLUDING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. A BAND OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL ALSO REACH SAINT THOMAS DURING THE MORNING.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 14 KNOTS
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MONDAY...AND TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS
THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 1 MILE IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS.

$$