SIO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA)

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WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANJA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 67.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 67.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 25.3S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.2S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME SHEARED AND ELONGATED TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE CURRENT
POSITION WAS DETERMINED FROM THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND AIDED BY A
172059Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS. THE INTENSITY WAS DEDUCED FROM THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW, KNES AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TC 01S HAS RECURVED TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. AS A
RESULT, THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND COMMENCED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS
AND DECREASING. TC ANJA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHEAST,
WEAKEN AND COMPLETE ET BY TAU 24. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNING IS AT
181500Z.//
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[HURAKAN]

Gone

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 011
WTIO30 FMEE 180634
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/4/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (EX-ANJA)
2.A POSITION 2009/11/18 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.6S / 66.3E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 070 SO: NO:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/18 18 UTC: 25.1S/67.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, FILLING UP.
24H: 2009/11/19 06 UTC: 29.0S/71.7E DISSIPATING.
36H: 2009/11/19 18 UTC: 34.4S/78.1E DISSIPATED.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5
FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THIS MORNING HAS BEEN HELPFUL TO RELOCALISE
THE
CENTER MORE EASTWARDS THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.
THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW FULL EXPOSED WESTNORTHWEST OF THE
RESIDUAL
CONVECTION.
EARLY FIX SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN ITS SOUTHWARDS TRACK
OVER
TH EPAST 6 HOURS.
QUICKSCAT OF 02:10Z SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE STRONGLY WEAKEN WITHIN
THE
SMALL CIRCULATION (NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ONLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT). IT'S ON THIS BASIS THAT THE SYSTEM IS DOWGRADED TO THE
SIMPLE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.
EX-ANJA CONFIRMS ITS EVACUATION TOWARDS THE MID-LAT. IN FACT, IT
SHOULD
MERGE WITHIN THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
AN INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE IS THAT THIS KIND OF TRACK OF ANJA
(PARABOLIC TRACK AND CYCLOLYSIS WITHIN THE EXTRATROPICAL AREA) IS
VERY
UNUSUAL FOR A NOVEMBER TC IN THE SWIO ...=
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