Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Let's wait and see, but things are very worrying here. I will keep your informed as possible.

Gustywind,although this thread is weather related,you can post here as many times you may have updates about the strike that may affect the butterfly island.

[expat2carib]

We can all start to breathe a little easier now.

Great msbee. Let's hope we all get "just" enough. (not too much please)

Here we still have some moderate rain in lots of small rainy episodes. The Island can handle it.

BTW Dominica is negotiating on a contract to export water to the other islands

Hi expat2carib, glad to see all these informations. A bit surprised with the contract to export water to the other islands? That's nice good idea... with all these rivers that's not impossible no?
In Guadeloupe tkinks are more trigged... a strike is cooking steadily that does not smell good. Yesterday it was the rush to have some fuel. The LKP is not agree with all the points of the French Governement and they call for another huge strike next Tuesday 24th November. The big strike with the 44 days of "death island" (end of January till 3rd of March 2009) is always in all the heads . Let's wait and see, but things are very worrying here. I will keep your informed as possible.
Gustywind

Doesn't sound nice Gusty! Strike and violence is no good

Keep us informed. Your reports are appreciated.

BTW. We have 365 rivers here and lots of springs. Water is not a problem here.

[Gustywind]

Let's wait and see, but things are very worrying here. I will keep your informed as possible.

Gustywind,although this thread is weather related,you can post here as many times you may have updates about the strike that may affect the butterfly island.

Tkanks Luis , i appreciate sincerely this opportunity, very glad to see that my friend . Whereas Luis, may i post some related articles with the possible strike expected? I will be glad to share these infos with you but the articles are written in French . Something to meditate ...

[cycloneye]

Let's wait and see, but things are very worrying here. I will keep your informed as possible.

Gustywind,although this thread is weather related,you can post here as many times you may have updates about the strike that may affect the butterfly island.

Tkanks Luis , i appreciate sincerely this opportunity, very glad to see that my friend . Whereas Luis, may i post some related articles with the possible strike expected? I will be glad to share these infos with you but the articles are written in French . Something to meditate ...

If there are articules in french,you can post a summary of the most important things that those say in english.

[Gustywind]

Expat2carib...
Oh no doesn't sound nice, during the last strike that was awfull. Remember, during 4 streak nights numerous shops have been burnt, destroyed, slammed and much more! Honestly i don't want to deal with another one, let's keep our fingers crossed but pretty worrying situation here. Musical concerts with pretty rare singers are expected this week and next week , that will be very sad to cancel them.
Tkanks for all expat2carib .
Don't worry... as usual and as possible i will keep you informed. I knew that water is not a problem in Dominica with the 365 rivers
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye:
Ok i will try to translate in French the main ideas . Tkanks Luis .
Off topic: Do you speak french or read it or neither?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N20W 6N30W 8N51W 5N55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 17W-20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N85W 26N86W 23N90W 18N93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY
FRONT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO E OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG 17N86W 20N98W 23N99W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT TO THE GULF COAST. A 1021 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. A TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PRODUCING 20-25 KT NE WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 85W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE E GULF E OF 85W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. A 240 NM SWATH OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE WRN
ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE HOWEVER IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA/PANAMA S OF 11N
BETWEEN 76W-84W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC
ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 59W-62W DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC SWD ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PROVIDING AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE ENHANCING
CONVECTION. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. EXPECT... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
NE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
MAINLY STATIONARY. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR
28N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO N OF
HISPANIOLA NEAT 20N70W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE E
ALONG 28N60W 21N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS 240 NM E OF THIS TROUGH. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N63W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N31W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
20N55W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA
FROM 31N9W TO 21N16W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN
10W-12W.

$$
FORMOSA

[cycloneye]

Do you speak french or read it or neither?

No French speaking,but English and Spanish all the way.

[Gustywind]

Do you speak french or read it or neither?

No French speaking,but English and Spanish all the way.

Ok tkanks that's nice. Me speaking French, English and Spanish (but slighlty better in English ).

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 172334
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 17 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
840 PM AST TUE NOV 17 2009

.UPDATE...ONLY UPDATE TO GRIDS TO UP POPS/WX IN CENTRAL INTERIOR
PR FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BELIEVE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN VERY
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME DRY UPPER LEVELS
AND PRODUCE CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE INTERIOR SPINE OF
PR...MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST IN THE LLVL STEERING FLOW.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FIRING OVER WATERS...BUT TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR.

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
850 PM AST TUE NOV 17 2009

AMZ710-712-715-725-180345-
850 PM AST TUE NOV 17 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...

AT 843 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS OUT TO 10
NM. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL
OBJECTS

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST WED NOV 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH
PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND DOMINATES THE AREAS WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT
7 DAYS. A JET SETS UP OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FADES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER
THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MID LEVELS ARE
GENERALLY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE FADES FROM THE WATERS TO THE
NORTH THEN TRADE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SERVE AS
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WHICH GAVE SAINT CROIX AND SAINT THOMAS
SOME BRIEF AND VERY HEAVY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
NAM SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA
AND TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
POSSIBLY NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAIN MAY ALSO FALL IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. MOISTURE APPEARS TO REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED IN THIS
GENERAL AREA UNTIL FRIDAY. BY THEN EASTERLIES HAVE SET UP AND
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST MOVES IN BY SATURDAY AND INCREASES THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN END TO SHOWERY WEATHER MAY NOT COME UNTIL
LATE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TNCM...
TKPK...TISX...AND TIST AT LEAST THROUGH 18/16Z. AFTER
18/16Z...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TIST AND TISX IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ...AND TJMZ AS SHOWERS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SPREAD NORTH.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE WEEKEND.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 180927
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST WED NOV 18 2009

VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE ISLAND OF SAINT THOMAS...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE WINDS WERE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST OFF OF THE WEST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM MID TO
UPPER 80S. THE WIND WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10
MPH.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS..,.TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...NO PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME AS SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 14 KNOTS
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

$$

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1218 PM AST WED NOV 18 2009

PRC021-033-051-061-127-135-137-143-181815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0389.091118T1618Z-091118T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CATANO PR-
SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1218 PM AST WED NOV 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...GUAYNABO...CATANO...
SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 215 PM AST

* AT 1215 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. DUE TO
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THIS AREA OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AS WELL AS THE FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 215 PM AST.

THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP
TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[msbee]

French Spanish English and poor old me only speaks English.. LOL

Gusty, sorry to hear about possible strikes there. Please keep us informed.

Luis, I can't believe PR is experiencing more rain. That's just too much!

Today is bright and sunny in St. Maarten.

I thought you might like to see these pictures of garbage in our fresh water pond. The pond is filled by run offs from the hills. Due to all the rain yesterday, the garbage was washed down from the hills into the pond. The pond empties into the sea. If the government does not get it cleaned up, it will eventually go into the sea and pollute it.

[Gustywind]

French Spanish English and poor old me only speaks English.. LOL

Gusty, sorry to hear about possible strikes there. Please keep us informed.

Luis, I can't believe PR is experiencing more rain. That's just too much!

Today is bright and sunny in St. Maarten.

I thought you might like to see these pictures of garbage in our fresh water pond. The pond is filled by run offs from the hills. Due to all the rain yesterday, the garbage was washed down from the hills into the pond. The pond empties into the sea. If the government does not get it cleaned up, it will eventually go into the sea and pollute it.

You know Msbee...you could speak that the more important thing, i tkink !

No problem Barbara i will keep you informed about the possible BIG STRIKE expected next Tuesday (24 th of November 2009). OH i'm amazed by these pics, it's worrying and pretty . We have the same problem too in many areas of Guadeloupe. Our pond is suffering too. Let's keep our fingers crossed to see an great attention from the authorities...

Nice weather here, brief passing showers this morning but the sky is blue and the sun is shinning.
Gustywind

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Hey guys,hurricane season is almost over so we can live in the islands without dealing with those monsters until next summer.

[msbee]

did you say hurricane season is almost over??
YAY!!!

[Gustywind]

:woo:
did you say hurricane season is almost over??
YAY!!!

YEAH we're close i tkink but not enough 12 days ahead:oops:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 8N25W 6N37W 9N47 10N56W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN
26W-32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE AXIS FROM
13N49W TO 7N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS SHEARED
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 45W-48W. A SECOND
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N59W TO 8N57W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA THROUGH
THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N83W
CONTINUING ALONG 25N85W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W
LINING THE MEXICO COASTLINE ALONG 19N91W 18N95W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS N OF 22N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N BETWEEN 90W-97W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODERATELY DRY AIR
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS DRY
AIR IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE NW GULF. SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
HONDURAS ACROSS ERN CUBA AND INTO THE WRN ATLC. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF COSTA RICA/PANAMA S OF 10N BETWEEN 76W-82W DUE TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER PUERTO RICO
INDICATED BY RADAR DATA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED AT A
1012 MB LOW NEAR 26N63W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 23N66W 21N70W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO
THE E ALONG 28N54W 25N55W 22N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 53W-59W. THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MORE ENHANCED
BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED
NEAR 27N62W EXTENDING TO JUST E OF THE NRN LESSER ANTILLES AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E WITH AXIS ALONG 48W. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SURFACE LOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FARTHER E FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
46W-49W. ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N26 SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC ACROSS PORTUGAL TO THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
17N25W TO NEAR 11N33W. AN UPPER LEVEL JET ALONG THE E SIDE OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SHEARING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO THE NE
ENHANCING A LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 11N29W TO
28N6W.

$$
WALTON