Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST WED NOV 18 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HELPING TO LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. INCREASING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE IS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...STILL MANAGED TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET...AND FOR ONLY A FEW SHOWERS IN
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO PASS BY THE VI AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER...AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOCAL ISLAND CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND AS WE WILL REMAIN IN A EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW PATTERN.

A SURGE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL HELP TO BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJSJ...TJBQ AND ACROSS THE VI THROUGH 18/23Z. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 19/16Z. VA FROM MONTSERRAT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF TKPK OVERNIGHT.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 PM AST WED NOV 18 2009

PRC021-033-047-051-061-091-101-127-135-137-143-145-182315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0390.091118T2022Z-091118T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COROZAL PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-DORADO PR-
GUAYNABO PR-MANATI PR-CATANO PR-VEGA BAJA PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
422 PM AST WED NOV 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...COROZAL...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA...DORADO...
GUAYNABO...MANATI...CATANO...VEGA BAJA...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 715 PM AST

* AT 415 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. BAYAMON...GUAYNABO AND CATANO ARE BEING THE HARDEST HIT
AS OF 415 PM AST. THIS ACTIVITY IS CAPABLE TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING
ACROSS LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SMALL RIVER STREAMS.
SOILS ARE SATURATED DUE TO PREVIOUS RAINS FROM THIS PAST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THEREFORE...THE HEAVY RAINS THAT ARE AFFECTING THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA WILL RESULT PROBLEMATIC FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ONCE
AGAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC021-061-127-190015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0070.091118T2120Z-091119T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 PM AST WED NOV 18 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
GUAYNABO
SAN JUAN

* THIS WARNING INCLUDES ALL RIVERS...STREAMS...AND TRIBUTARIES
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...INCLUDING THE RIO PIEDRAS AND RIO BAYAMON.

* UNTIL 815 PM AST

* AT 516 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
NEARLY STATIONARY BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. U.S.G.S. GAGES AND RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE WARNING
AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH 815 PM AST. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAIN WILL
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES
ARE LIKELY OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
629 PM AST WED NOV 18 2009

PRC021-061-127-190015-
/O.CON.TJSJ.FF.W.0070.000000T0000Z-091119T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-
629 PM AST WED NOV 18 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM AST FOR SAN
JUAN...GUAYNABO AND BAYAMON MUNICIPALITIES...

AT 621 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WARNED AREA. THE
HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE MOVED TOWARD THE MUNICIPALITIES OF CAROLINA AND
LOIZA AT THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...RIVERS AND SMALL
CREEKS WILL CONTINUE TO REACT THIS EVENING.

RIO PIEDRAS RIVER HAS REACHED THE 15 FEET FLOOD STAGE AS OF 545 PM
AT THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

[cycloneye]

It was a very active day of floodings in San Juan that caused plenty of traffic jams,evacuations etc.Lets see what thursday brings.

Good night to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST WED NOV 18 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE SAN
JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA FOR THE PAST TWO HOURS. MANY AREAS ACROSS SAN
JUAN...BAYAMON AND GUAYNABO WERE FLOODED DUE TO THE TORRENTIAL
RAINS THAT AFFECTED THOSE AREAS. SEVERAL FLOOD STATEMENTS AND A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WERE ISSUED EARLIER FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND.

AS OF 915 PM AST THIS EVENING...NOT FLOOD ADVISORIES NEITHER FLOOD
WARNING ARE IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...ROADWAYS AND UNDERPASSES AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
MUNICIPALITIES....CONTINUE TO HAVE PONDING OF WATERS ON THEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION/SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN
COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESULTED IN AN EXPLOSIVE
LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERED THE
SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND NEARBY MUNICIPALITIES.

THINGS HAVE IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE
HOURS OVER LAND AREAS...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO/CULEBRA/VIEQUES AREA
OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE MOVE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THURSDAY...
WHILE A 500 MB HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL
CREATE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...LIMITING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...NORTHERN COASTS AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND DUE TO LOW LEVEL AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS.

OVERALL...WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPROVE FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO ALREADY...HOWEVER...THE EASTERN COAST/CULEBRA
AND VIEQUES MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS EVENING AND MAYBE OVERNIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ZONE/TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THAT AREA. THEN ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN SLOPES. FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS OVER SAME
AREAS...BUT LESS COVERAGE. FOR SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE PERTURBATION
PASSES BY FOLLOWED BY A WIND SURGE.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.More of the same for Puerto Rico today?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST THU NOV 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DOWNSTREAM PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. A JET RANGING FROM 40 TO 70 KNOTS WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
BUILD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING
FRIDAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL
DRY COMPLETELY ON MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST SURFACE BOUNDARY...MOST
NOTABLE WHERE TRACED OUT ON THE RADAR...MOVED SOUTHEAST FROM THE
WATERS BETWEEN FAJARDO AND VIEQUES TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF SAINT
CROIX DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. IT WILL RETURN TO PUERTO RICO
DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACCORDING TO THE VAD OF THE DOPPLER RADAR...WINDS
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH...EVEN THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...ABOVE 6 THOUSAND
FEET. THE MIMIC DISPLAY SHOWS A BAND OF MOISTURE ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST JUST SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA...AND A SECOND BAND OF MOISTURE OF THE SAME
ORIENTATION WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A RIPPLE IN THE FLOW IN THE LAYER
FROM 1000-700 MB MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND COINCIDING WITH
THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING AND A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SHOWN IN THE
GFS AT 250 MB. SOUNDER DATA SHOWED MOISTURE DECREASING SLIGHTLY
AS A DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH THAT WAS BETWEEN THE TWO BANDS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED...BUT EXPECT THE SOUTHEAST BAND OF MOISTURE TO RAISE THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL CLOSE
TO 2 INCHES...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY. THE PRINCIPAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY THOUGH...IS THAT WINDS
WILL BE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND SHOWERS SHOULD FOCUS MORE ON THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR PORTION OF THE ISLAND THAN YESTERDAY WHEN
SHOWERS FORMED ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. THE
00Z SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE MOST OF THE WAY UP THROUGH THE
COLUMN...WHILE THE MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY DECREASE THE MOISTURE
ABOVE 12 THOUSAND FEET. THE NAM ALSO SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE VERTICAL PROFILE OF THE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS AS IT
HOLDS BETTER MOISTURE UP THROUGH 18 THOUSAND FEET. EXPECT NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF
THE NORTH PORTION OF THE ISLAND AGAIN TODAY...EXCEPT THAT SHOWERS
MAY FOCUS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR FROM MOCA TO CIALES THIS
TIME.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE 500 MB YESTERDAY MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION OF THE CLOUDS YESTERDAY AND ACTUALLY HELPED
FORM THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER MOISTURE MAY DECREASE THIS PHENOMENON
TODAY...BUT BETTER MOISTURE MAY ALSO ALLOW CLOUDS TO GROW HIGHER
AND STRONGER IN COMPENSATION. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO
THE FORECAST IN SOME PORTIONS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL PUERTO RICO
FROM MOCA TO CIALES. THE 00Z RUN OF THE NAM WAS VERY CLEAR THAT
THE LIGHT WINDS OF LATE WILL ENHANCE THE FORMATION OF ACTIVITY
AROUND THIS AREA TODAY AND WILL ALLOW HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO
FALL IN LOCALIZED AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOODING DID NOT SEEM LIKELY
OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO RAISE A WATCH...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TWO VERY
UNCERTAIN FACTORS...THE POSITION OF THE LOCAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
SERVED TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION AND THE DIRECTION OF THE WIND IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY AND MOISTURE DECREASES...THEREFORE
POPS ARE LOWER FRIDAY THAN TODAY...HOWEVER A MOISTURE SURGE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SERVES
BOTH TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO TO CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MAY SPREAD INLAND
A LITTLE FARTHER THAN NORMAL EACH NIGHT.

ON MONDAY THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AT ALL LEVELS...BUT MOST
NOTABLY AT MID LEVELS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLS VERY CLOSE TO
ZERO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN A PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM THE WET
WEATHER THAT WE HAVE BEEN HAVING...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE SEEN IN THE USUAL AREAS.

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SHOWERS IN THE BAND THAT ROLLED
THROUGH LEFT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN SAINT THOMAS BUT
NOTHING...YET...IN SAINT CROIX. BOTH MAY EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY AS THE BAND RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST.
RAINFALL WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH EACH MOISTURE SURGE MENTIONED
ABOVE...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT SINCE THE AREA OF BEST
MOISTURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE THE
TREND OF SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THAT OUTLINED FOR PUERTO RICO ONLY TO
A MUCH LESSER DEGREE.

ANOTHER FRONT COULD AFFECT THE AREA IN EARLY DECEMBER...BUT NONE
ARE EXPECTED SOONER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH EXCEPTION OF TISX. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TISX...AND TIST AT LEAST THROUGH 18/16Z. AFTER 18/16Z..MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TJBQ...AND TJMZ AS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. ALSO...TJSJ COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 18/19Z THROUGH 18/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL
RISE WITH THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND BEGINNING FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED BEFORE SUNDAY.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1114 AM AST THU NOV 19 2009

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SHORT TERM FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WHILE
WEAKENING AND HAVING LESS INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER MIMIC-TPW AND LOCAL UPPER AIR DATA INDICATED
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AROUND TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN ISOLATED SPOTS
STILL EXISTS TODAY. LESSER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...HOWEVER AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION.
HOWEVER RECENT REPORTS FROM THE MONTSERRAT VOLCANO OBSERVATORY
INDICATED THAT THE SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO ERUPTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING SPREADING ASH AND GAS EMISSIONS UP TO NEAR 15 KFT. THE
GENERAL WIND FLOW AT THIS TIME WILL SPREAD THE ASH PLUME NNW
ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF TKPK AND TKPN...AND COULD POSSIBLY DRIFT
FURTHER WEST BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND THE USVI LATER
TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SIGMETS AND ADVISORY BULLETINS FOR
UPDATES.

[msbee]

Puerto Rico sure does not need any more rain.
Have any of the streams and rivers gone down any?

[cycloneye]

Puerto Rico sure does not need any more rain.
Have any of the streams and rivers gone down any?

Good news today is that no big rains have fallen so far and hopefully it continues that way to let the streams and rivers continue to go down.

One example of what occured yesterday was a mudslide that covered a house but the family that lived there went out just in time.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST THU NOV 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING...HAVING LESS
INFLUENCE ON THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIMITING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A DRY
AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS DRIER AIR IN
COMBINATION WITH A PRESSURE RIDGE AT MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...LIMITED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF THE
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
FEW SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IN MUCH LESSER EXTENDS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS SAME WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY. FOR THIS EVENING A SURGE OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. IN FACT...LATEST MIMIC- TPW IMAGES INDICATE THAT
SOME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE PREVAILING EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN AREA OF
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH... EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA. THE GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER
GUIDANCE INDICATED PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES FOR FRIDAY...
INCREASING UP TO 2.0 OR INCHES OR EVEN MORE LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AN
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH ISOLD SHRA AND
TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS BTWN THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE ACTIVITY WILL THEN DRIFT WESTWARDS
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BTWN 20/03Z-20/12Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF
MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TISX AND TIST...AND THE EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
WILL PREVAIL FM SFC-25 KFT.

[msbee]

Puerto Rico sure does not need any more rain.
Have any of the streams and rivers gone down any?

Good news today is that no big rains have fallen so far and hopefully it continues that way to let the streams and rivers continue to go down.

One example of what occured yesterday was a mudslide that covered a house but the family that lived there went out just in time.

Wow, Luis, that is awful. I am glad no one was hurt.
What a mess!

[Gustywind]

Puerto Rico sure does not need any more rain.
Have any of the streams and rivers gone down any?

Good news today is that no big rains have fallen so far and hopefully it continues that way to let the streams and rivers continue to go down.

One example of what occured yesterday was a mudslide that covered a house but the family that lived there went out just in time.

Wow, Luis, that is awful. I am glad no one was hurt.
What a mess!

ohoh it's AWESOME, God blessed this family! Tkanks.
Off topic, I remembered an enormous rock falling in a house of and old woman. She was situated in an area near the hills.
This event was related to a very strong episode of showers and tstorms last year in Guadeloupe. Hopefully the rock has not hurt this women in the house and the huge rock stopped just in front of its bed . Whereas, minors damages in the house have been reported (doors lighlty slamed...). She was shocked but no more .

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 PM AST THU NOV 19 2009

PRC047-101-105-135-143-145-200030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0392.091119T2141Z-091120T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-NARANJITO PR-MOROVIS PR-TOA ALTA PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
VEGA BAJA PR-
541 PM AST THU NOV 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...NARANJITO...MOROVIS...TOA ALTA...VEGA ALTA AND VEGA
BAJA

* UNTIL 830 PM AST

* AT 536 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PARTS OF NARANJITO...TOA BAJA AND COROZAL
AND MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD MOROVIS AND SOUTHERN VEGA ALTA AND
VEGA BAJA. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ACROSS COROZAL...WHERE
RAINFALL RATE IS ABOUT THREE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
626 PM AST THU NOV 19 2009

PRC021-033-051-061-127-137-200015-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0393.091119T2226Z-091120T0015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-DORADO PR-GUAYNABO PR-CATANO PR-SAN JUAN PR-TOA BAJA PR-
626 PM AST THU NOV 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...DORADO...GUAYNABO...CATANO...SAN JUAN AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 815 PM AST

* AT 623 PM AST DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE MUNICIPALITY OF SAN JUAN...NORTHERN
GUAYNABO AND BAYAMON...AND CATANO AND PROMPTLY TOA BAJA AND THEN
DORADO WITHIN THE NEXT 15 TO 30 MINUTES. THE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR SO. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
CAPABLE TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS SOME AREAS WITHIN THE
MUNICIPALITIES UNDER THIS FLOOD ADVISORY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC047-143-145-200230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0071.091119T2333Z-091120T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
733 PM AST THU NOV 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL
VEGA ALTA
VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 728 PM AST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FOR THAT
RIO CIBUCO AT VEGA BAJA NEAR ROAD 620 WAS OUT OF ITS BANK.
ALSO...REPORTED THAT SAME RIVER UPSTREAM WAS CLOSE TO FULL BANK IN
COROZAL. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOOD IS OCCURRING AT THIS PRESENT TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

[cycloneye]

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 PM AST THU NOV 19 2009

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT ACTIVITY SO FAR
WAS SHORT LIVED AND NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WERE REPORTED.
OVERALL WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THERE WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENTER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND DRIFT WESTWARDS WHILE AFFECTING PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE WIND WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM.

ON FRIDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND DAYTIME HEATING...TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT WINDS OF 14 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 PM AST THU NOV 19 2009

PRC143-145-200815-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0033.091120T0234Z-091120T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
1034 PM AST THU NOV 19 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
VEGA ALTA AND VEGA BAJA MUNICIPALITIES DUE TO FLOODING ALONG RIO
CIBUCO...

* UNTIL 415 AM AST

* AT 1020 PM AST...SEVERAL ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING
ALONG RIO CIBUCO AT VEGA BAJA. THESE ROADS ARE THE FOLLOWING...ROAD
675...ROAD 676...ROAD 620 AND ROAD 647. THE USGS SENSOR AT VEGA BAJA
CONTINUES TO INDICATE WATER LEVELS RISING AT THAT POINT.
THEREFORE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING
FOR RIO CIBUCO UNTIL 415 AM AST FRIDAY MORNING.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

[cycloneye]

Good night to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1109 PM AST THU NOV 19 2009

.UPDATE...ANOTHER RATHER BUSY EVENING...AS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPED AND THEN LINGERED. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN OCCURRED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. RIO CIBUCO IN VEGA BAJA AND VEGA
ALTA REMAINS OUT OF ITS BANKS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND HAS SEVERAL
ROADS IN VEGA BAJA FLOODED AND A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
AS LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
EXPECT SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND ZFP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT SENT AN UPDATE TO BOTH TO
ALTER WEATHER...SKY COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES AND
JUST TO KEEP FORECASTS CURRENT WITH ONGOING AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR
ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...MAINLY TO THE SYNOPSIS...
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES./ BCS

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED
TSRA. ALSO...ANY VOLCANIC ASH AND STEAM FROM MONTSERRAT WILL MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME A HAZARD FOR TISX
AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT OR FRIDAY./ BCS

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND WEAKENED THIS MORNING...HAVING LESS INFLUENCE
ON THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAVE ALREADY START TO BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES ARE STILL SHOWING LARGE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS AREA LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH UPPER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCEMENT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL HELP DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO A
CU LINE COULD DEVELOP OVER EL YUNQUE AND AFFECT THE SAN JUAN
METROPOLITAN AREA. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE
SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF CU LINES.

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INCREASE CLOUD AND
SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TISX...AND TIST AT LEAST
THROUGH 20/16Z. AFTER 20/16Z..MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TJBQ...AND TJMZ AS SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
ALSO...TJSJ COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 20/19Z
THROUGH 20/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE...ENOUGH
TO GENERATE A SMALL CHOP.