Time for the all to familiar dinner

ameriwx2003 · #2 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Wed Aug 06, 2003 10:51 pm

LOL.. Yep make sure you have a place set for me:):). I have my Bib ready:P):)

Rainband · #3 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 06, 2003 11:00 pm

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol:

I killed it a few times..so one for me..OK I will take a wing!!! :wink:

JetMaxx · #4 Postby **JetMaxx** » Wed Aug 06, 2003 11:40 pm

I already ate mine, and it gave me indigestion. Anyone got any Pepto? :lol:

#5 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 12:01 am

How many crows am I gonna have to eat this season!!! This isn't Hurricane season!!! It is Crow season!!!!!! :roll:

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 12:03 am

This is probably the biggest bust I've had on a TC or any prognostic outlook.

I've got a lot of mashed potatoes to wash down that unhealthy serving of crow coming my way.

SF

JetMaxx · #7 Postby **JetMaxx** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 12:33 am

It's not my worst bust...not by a longshot.
Some of you that knew me in 2000 probably will remember this...hurricane Debby...my biggest bust ever.

At GoPBI I forecast hurricane Debby to be a cat-4 hurricane in southeast Florida. I bought the GFDL forecast of 117 kts hook, line, and sinker...and totally disregarded the shear directly in Debby's path...and boy did I blow it when Debby was blown apart near Haiti.

Talk about eating crow -- I ate buzzard over that one....raw buzzard

ameriwx2003 · #8 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 4:40 am

Perry. Oh yes Hurricane Debby, I joined the GFDL bandwagon on that and I think the line is very long of people who ate crow over that lol. I remember a friend who brought up the possiblity the NOGAPS solution( which as it turned out was correct in predicted Debby to succumb to the shear) I laughed AT him and said no way would I pick NOGAPS over the trusted GFDL

:). I get heartburn thinking about it:):)

Toni - 574 · #9 Postby **Toni - 574** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 5:00 am

I cannot believe that it just up and disappeared! Oh well, gotta have some of that crow myself. Big bust for me. Can you cook it with a little onion, will help to take the wild taste out.

:o

Look at it this way, we can all get together and have a nice dinner together. :wink:

chadtm80 · #10 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 7:05 am

This was a BIG bust for MANY, just look at the pole I started last week about 90L's future... OUCH!!!! LOL

#11 Postby **bfez1** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 8:31 am

Come on guys, don't be so hard on yourselves.
You win some, you lose some.

Colin · #12 Postby **Colin** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 9:35 am

YUCK...it's not done...Who the heck is in charge of this CRAP? Ahhh well...I ate my serving anyway...

GulfBreezer · #13 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 9:38 am

I don't think this will be the last "Crow Buffet" for us.........right now, crows are going into hiding!! They are scared, very scared!! As they should be!! This season is going to be full of surprises!! We have said that from the beginning..........................

Lindaloo · #14 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 10:53 am

glad i did not play the numbers game this time. no crow for me. :lol:

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 10:58 am

chadtm80 wrote:This was a BIG bust for MANY, just look at the pole I started last week about 90L's future... OUCH!!!! LOL

In the earlier short term, I predicted 90L to be nothing but an open wave, but where my crow comes in was when it first looked like it had a future. Ahhh, the dangers of MR/LR prognostication.

SF

#16 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:14 am

I think I have a feather stuck b/w my teeth. Anybody got floss?

Scott_inVA · #17 Postby **Scott_inVA** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 1:43 pm

JetMaxx wrote:It's not my worst bust...not by a longshot.
Some of you that knew me in 2000 probably will remember this...hurricane Debby...my biggest bust ever.

At GoPBI I forecast hurricane Debby to be a cat-4 hurricane in southeast Florida. I bought the GFDL forecast of 117 kts hook, line, and sinker...and totally disregarded the shear directly in Debby's path...and boy did I blow it when Debby was blown apart near Haiti.

Talk about eating crow -- I ate buzzard over that one....raw buzzard

Let's not discuss Debby, please Perry.

SO convinced was I she'd come into NC as a speedy Cat-3, I convinced The Boss to take out a 1/4 page ad in the local paper honking our "ongoing team coverage". It appeared in the paper the same day Debby went *poof*. Much explaining from my office that day. :oops:

I had raw buzzard, a crow side salad and road kill stew for that one.
DT ripped me savagely for the rest of the year. Funny now...not then.

Debby was the best lesson I've had on anti-honking.

Still comes up at staff Christmas parties :roll:

Scott

Guest · #18 Postby **Guest** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 1:46 pm

Crow - what crow - I've already eaten all mine for the season!!!

Derek Ortt · #19 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 2:24 pm

Remember Debby very well.

While I was not releasing forecasts publicly then, I remember how I bought SHIPS, which insisted upon a strong cat 2 making landfall in sfla. Had I known the effects of the SAL then as I do now, I'd have laughed at that. However, there was one simple factor that could have been factore dinto the Debby forecasts. Debby was not named Lance Armstrong; thus, it was doomed the minute in moved into the mountains

ColdFront77 · #20 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Aug 07, 2003 4:30 pm

This tropical wave was a forecast gone bad? The National Hurricane Center never declared 90L a tropical depression.

Also, the wind shear wasn't that high according to the maps... although wind shear apparently indicated upper level wind shear.

Time for the all to familiar dinner

Time for the all to familiar dinner

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