WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA (PAGASA) 27W (JTWC)

[drdavisjr]

Doesn't look so great. But ECMWF has been developing this one:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[drdavisjr]

Latest from Navy/NRL

[drdavisjr]

It has been so quiet the last couple of weeks here in the WPAC we kinda got lulled into this weird sense of security - but looks like it might be heating up for a last hurrah

[drdavisjr]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 129.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 200117Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
BANDING NORTH WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT WITH A WEAK LLCC
SIGNATURE. A 200116Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POOR
ASSESSMENT AND SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT UNFLAGGED
WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE WITH KOROR (NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC) MAINTAINING 10-KNOT EASTERLY FLOW AND SLP NEAR 1007 MB. THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 20-30 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A
WEAK, ELONGATED 850 MB VORTICITY SIGNATURE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO MINDANAO AND THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to fair

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
129.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST
OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS SEEN IN THE 202138Z QUIKSCAT
PASS. ADDITIONALLY, THE 210038Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL BANDS STARTING TO CONVERGE INTO THE LLCC.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[cycloneye]

JMA classifies it a TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 08N 129E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Grifforzer]

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) remains almost stationary over the Southern Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 7.6N lon 129.1E...or about 390 km ENE of Davao City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center. This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a weak Tropical Cyclone within the next 1-2 days.

[Crostorm]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 221000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 200 NM RADIUS OF 8.2N 128.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 220530Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 128.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 231000Z.
//

[Crostorm]

[cebuboy]

It is raining here in Cebu City Philippines now.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

23/0232 UTC 9.2N 127.7E T1.5/1.5 93W -- West Pacific

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Grifforzer]

514
WWJP25 RJTD 230000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 09.1N 127.8E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[oaba09]

[oaba09]

1st PAGASA warning



The Low Pressure Area East of Mindanao has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "URDUJA"
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 170 kms East of Surigao City
Coordinates: 9.7°N, 127.1°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near center
Movement: West Northwest slowly
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday afternoon:
100 kms East Northeast of Surigao
Wednesday afternoon:
70 kms North of Surigao or
50 kms South of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Thursday afternoon:
70 kms West of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or at
70 kms North Northeast of Maasin, Southern Leyte

[dexterlabio]

can this system survive while crossing the southern islands?

[oaba09]

can this system survive while crossing the southern islands?

Not sure...probably not due to land interaction...

here's another forecast track

[HURAKAN]

TD 27W

[HURAKAN]

WTPN32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220951ZNOV2009//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 9.9N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.0N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 9.8N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 9.2N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 8.7N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 8.8N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 9.4N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 10.4N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 126.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MINDINAO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 231000). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND
241500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (NIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN