Wave with surface low off africa will it be the spark to CV?

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cycloneye
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Wave with surface low off africa will it be the spark to CV?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2003 6:43 am

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

There is a closed low at 13n with this wave but dry air is not letting convection develop but let's follow it as it moves west to see if it gets ideal conditions or we will have more quiet days.Maybe the megabomb wave behind this one will be the spark but time will tell.

Here are the Senegal observations: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Aug 07, 2003 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 07, 2003 6:57 am

Yeah looks impressive on sat loops. Needs to pull moisture up from the ITCZ. Not going to judge things by Gray's numbers, I just look at what's there. UKMET likes this wave, but like you said , maybe it will pave the way for the one behind it. Yeah, I busted on 90L. Really thought that would spin. BTW, NOGAPS is showing a TD east of the Windwards at 120. We watch. Cheers!!
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#3 Postby Tip » Thu Aug 07, 2003 7:27 am

Nice spin on the wave coming off of Africa. Also, a 1008mil low associated with it.

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/ocean_image2 ... atl_12.png

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

We'll see if this can break through the high pressure/ dry air jinx.
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#4 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Aug 07, 2003 8:07 am

That is th ebest signature of a LLCC we have seen in a while on a Quikscat scan!!! It will be interesting to see of this one can beat the dry air. Needs tha ITCZ moisutre BAD if it is to do anything.
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#5 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 07, 2003 8:43 am

as long as the euopean heat ridge is in place, they wont do much, too dry.
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Aug 07, 2003 9:30 am

The temperature/dewpoint couplet remind me of home.

86º/99º/78º Dewpoint

Anyway, NOAA just released their updated outlook ... will post in a new thread.

SF
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#7 Postby Colin » Thu Aug 07, 2003 9:37 am

We'll see what happens with this...but I don't think it'll develop ATTM ... too much dry air.
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:19 am

Colin wrote:We'll see what happens with this...but I don't think it'll develop ATTM ... too much dry air.


This one may lay the work for the next one poised to come off in the next 2 days or so.

The MJO is heading back into a neg phase and that should increase moisture across the Tropical Atlantic.

SF
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#9 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 07, 2003 12:02 pm

What evidence do we have that the MJO is shifftng? I dont have much knowlege in that
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Aug 07, 2003 12:06 pm

chadtm80 wrote:What evidence do we have that the MJO is shifftng? I dont have much knowlege in that


Take a look at the MJO thread started by Ticka, Chad. I posted the link for the CPC site there.

SF
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#11 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 07, 2003 12:07 pm

Thanks SF
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#12 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 07, 2003 1:49 pm

Come on convection and MJO! Die SAL!
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