SIO : TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5 (EX-BONGANI)

[Grifforzer]

WTIO30 FMEE 220652
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/5/20092010
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5
2.A POSITION 2009/11/22 AT 0600 UTC :
9.1S / 56.3E
(NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 60 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/22 18 UTC: 08.8S/55.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2009/11/23 06 UTC: 08.9S/53.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
36H: 2009/11/23 18 UTC: 09.1S/52.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
48H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 09.5S/51.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM

[Crostorm]

TXXS22 KNES 220845


A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96S)

B. 22/0830Z

C. 8.8S

D. 56.2E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 3.5/10 RESULTING IN A DT OF 2.0. MET
IS 1.0 WHILE PT IS 1.5. FT BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

22/0544Z 8.7S 56.8E TMI


...TURK

[Crostorm]

Warning Nr / Avis Nr NR02/05 22/11/2009 1000 UTC --
System / Système TROPICAL DEPRESSION / DEPRESSION TROPICALE --
Name / Nom -- --
Position / Position NEAR 08° 8 S - 56° 1 E 22/11/2009 0900 UTC --
Estimated minimum central Pressure / Pression minimale estimée au centre 999 HPA --
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the centre / Vent moyen maxi (10 mn) près du centre 30 KT (55 KM/H) --
Gust maxi / Rafales maxi 45 KT (85 KM/H) --
CI Number (Dvorak scale) / Nombre CI (Classification de Dvorak) -- --
Movement over the past 06 hours / Déplacement au cours des dernières 06 heures NW 10 KT (18 KM/H) --
Other informations / Autres informations INCREASING / S'INTENSIFIANT

http://www.mtotec.com/

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Crostorm]

[Calasanjy]

Continues to develop even though the JTWC hasn't issued a TCFA yet...looks like Cyclone Bongani could be hot on the heels of Anja and threaten the west coast of Madagascar later this week

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Macrocane]

Very impressive how is it possible that it hasn't been named yet?

[Grifforzer]

AXIO20 FIMP 230000
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
SATELLITE TROPICAL CYLONE ANALYSIS.
1 . A SATELLITE : METEOSAT 07
2. A ORBIT NUMBER : GEOSTATIONARY
3. A ORBIT DATE/TIME : 23.11.09 @ 0000 UTC
0. B CYCLONE SERIAL NUMBER : 02
1. B CYCLONE NAME : TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2. B LATITUDE : 7.8 DEGREES SOUTH
3. B LONGITUDE : 54.8 DEGREES EAST
4. B DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE : FAIR
5. B T. NUMBER / C.I NUMBER : 2.0 / 2.0 S12 HRS
6. B MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 09 KT.
7. B OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.
T.O.O. : 23/11/09 @ 0040 UTC=

[Calasanjy]

The Madagascar meteorology department is supposed to name it when it reaches tropical storm intensity - evidently they haven't found it to be at that stage yet. This looks to me like another rapid developer; it seems that early season cyclones have a propensity to do that. Trackwise, it is seeming to resemble Cyclone Calasanjy (1989, see my avatar image) which struck the NW Malagasy coastline, although I believe that storm originated from a low pressure area emerging from the African coastline. The west coast of Madagascar should monitor this storm for future impacts, IMO.

[P.K.]

Upgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm Bongani.

WTIO30 FMEE 230642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/5/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5
2.A POSITION 2009/11/23 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.5S / 53.7E
(EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 070 SE: 050 SO: 190 NO: 070
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 550 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2009/11/23 18 UTC: 08.9S/53.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2009/11/24 06 UTC: 09.6S/52.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2009/11/24 18 UTC: 10.1S/52.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
48H: 2009/11/25 06 UTC: 10.4S/51.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2009/11/25 18 UTC: 10.8S/50.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
72H: 2009/11/26 06 UTC: 11.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0-, CI=3.0-.
CLASSICAL AND MW IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETRIC DATA SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS.
SPECIALLY, LAST NIGHT MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL ORGANISATION

END OF PART ONE

[Grifforzer]

AXIO20 FIMP 230700
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
SATELLITE TROPICAL CYLONE ANALYSIS.
1 . A SATELLITE : METEOSAT 07
2. A ORBIT NUMBER : GEOSTATIONARY
3. A ORBIT DATE/TIME : 23.11.09 @ 0630 UTC
0. B CYCLONE SERIAL NUMBER : 02
1. B CYCLONE NAME : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 'BONGANI'
2. B LATITUDE : 8.5 DEGREES SOUTH
3. B LONGITUDE : 53.7 DEGREES EAST
4. B DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE : GOOD
5. B T. NUMBER / C.I NUMBER : 3.0 / 3.0 D1.0 24 HRS
6. B MOVEMENT : WEST 09 KT.
7. B OTHER INFORMATION: NIL.
T.O.O. : 23/11/09 @ 0700 UTC=
END=

---
now this is silly

anyway..

(from RSMC)

INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM

[cycloneye]

[Macrocane]

Another one that was predicted by the Euro, let's see if it is as good in the Southern Hemisphere season as it was in the Northern Hemisphere season.

[CrazyC83]

Forecasting an Intense Tropical Cyclone...

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _sh_0.html

RFQ is the SW quad in this case? QuikSCAT shows 35-40 kt winds but misses a section of the storm. Given that, 45 kt is my guess for the intensity.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 8.5S 53.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 53.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 8.7S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 9.0S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 9.3S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 9.6S 50.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 10.1S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 10.9S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.2S 43.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5S 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 735 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP TIGHTLY INTO AN
INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
230133Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ILLUSTRATES THE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WHILE A 230523Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS 40-KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LLCC. TC 02S IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HAS RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF MULTIPLE TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS. TC 02S WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE,
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
AS IT STARTS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK SCENARIO AS THE ECMWF MODEL (AS
OBTAINED FROM THEIR PUBLIC WEB PAGE) OFFERS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK
WHILE THE UKMO SOLUTION SUGGESTS A MORE ZONAL MID-LATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN AND SUBSEQUENT WESTWARD-MOVING TRACK. THIS FORECAST LEANS
TOWARDS THE JTWC CONSENSUS, WHICH FAVORS THE SOUTHWESTWARD-TRACKING
MODELS OF GFDN AND NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 NOV 2009 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 8:38:36 S Lon : 52:55:46 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.3 3.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -46.2C Cloud Region Temp : -50.0C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.67 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[HURAKAN]

Not looking too good

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGANI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 9.1S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 9.5S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 9.9S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 10.3S 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 10.7S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 11.6S 46.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 12.9S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 14.4S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BONGANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 685 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION, HOWEVER, A 231758Z METOP-A IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON A 230523Z ASCAT IMAGE (25-KM) SHOWING
40-45 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THEN IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS THE STR STRENGTHENS
AND SHIFTS EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN POLEWARD OVER WATER. NOGAPS IS
THE OUTLIER AND TURNS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD LATER, AS IT TRACKS OVER
MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY BUT SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN