Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

If you want to see a model run showing a raging winter storm in Texas, namely the northern half of the state, here's your run courtesy of today's 6z GFS run at 336hrs:

[cheezyWXguy]

If you want to see a model run showing a raging winter storm in Texas, namely the northern half of the state, here's your run courtesy of today's 6z GFS run at 336hrs:

I saw that. And Thats actually the second, stronger wave of the set. The first hits just after 10 days. Its still a long way out, but theres been hints to this system in many runs over the past couple of days and we are slowly getting closer..

[srainhoutx]

The storm has been rather consistant over the longer range the past couple of days. What peaks my attention is the slow moving Cold Core Upper Low (500mb) that the GFS is suggesting. These systems offer our best chances of wintry precip as the entire column would likely support frozen precip. We shall see.

[wxgirl69]

Sounds very interesting.. When can we actually start buying into the model readings?

[wxman22]

Sounds very interesting.. When can we actually start buying into the model readings?

I would say by next weekend if the models are still showing the cold air, a "Bear's Watch" may need to be issued... lol

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI for those that follow the GFS...

Scheduled: 12/15/2009
Global Forecast System (GFS) Upgrade
Changes include:
-New data sources and improved numerical techniques in the GSI
-Unified post-processor for GFS and GDAS
-Accuracy in formulation of some diagnostic variables improved
-Additional parameters added to products available on FTP servers

Currently being run in parallel with the current GFS. To view, You can also go to the main GFS page on NCEP and replace "nwprod" in the URL with "nwpara" for the normal list.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/

HPC commented this morning in Prelim Extended Range Disco...

PARALLEL GFSP 00Z/06Z RUNS ARE VERY STRONG WITH THE MID LEVEL AND
HAVE THE SRN MOST TRACK OF ALL MODELS. SFC LOW INDICATING
PRESSURES AS LOW AS 975 MB OFF CAPE COD WITH INLAND HIGH WIND AND
COASTAL STORM CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE A GOOD TEST FOR THIS MODEL
AS IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE CURRENT GFS MID DEC.

[wxgirl69]

Sounds very interesting.. When can we actually start buying into the model readings?

I would say by next weekend if the models are still showing the cold air, a "Bear's Watch" may need to be issued... lol

Ok - I see people using the term "Bear's Watch". What does that exactly mean

[Ntxw]

Simply means something fun to look forward to. Long range models almost never comes to fruition exactly as depicted this far out but sets trends. As it comes closer and you feel the cold, that's when your excitement level can go up another notch

[wxgirl69]

Simply means something fun to look forward to. Long range models almost never comes to fruition exactly as depicted this far out but sets trends. As it comes closer and you feel the cold, that's when your excitement level can go up another notch

I hear you on that one!!! I know the models are trending towards colder air. As always, yet to be determined how cold, wet, etc... I hope we have something fun to look forward to..

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Hopefully we will get some snow here in North Texas!!!

[amawea]

wxgirl69, It means it bares watching, as it could be something to watch.

[wxgirl69]

wxgirl69, It means it bares watching, as it could be something to watch.

I thought so... Just wanted to make sure.. Thanks!!

[snow and ice]

The beginning of the cold from the trusted EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9112212!!/

[Portastorm]

Yep, from the 12z Euro ... you can see the cold air dump over the Rockies as it heads towards the southern Plains and Texas. This will definitely be a much colder airmass than anything we have seen but I wouldn't get too excited about frozen precip yet because we need to consider source regions of the airmass as well as the strength of the high bringing it down.

[snow and ice]

The EURO and ENSEMBLES are in good agreement in the 8-10 day means. Looks like business is about to pick up in the southern plains and Texas.

EURO-ENSEMBLES 8-10 Day Means:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the pattern next week. 00Z EC sure likes a cut off low idea and the GFC has trended that way as well. What also catches my eye is the EC showing a strong Polar Vortex finally showing up in the 240 hour/500mb OP run, Great setup for a cross polar flow has we head further into December. The STJ also appears to be very active as we expect in El Nino winters. Interesting days ahead.

[Portastorm]

Keep an eye on the pattern next week. 00Z EC sure likes a cut off low idea and the GFC has trended that way as well. What also catches my eye is the EC showing a strong Polar Vortex finally showing up in the 240 hour/500mb OP run, Great setup for a cross polar flow has we head further into December. The STJ also appears to be very active as we expect in El Nino winters. Interesting days ahead.

Saw that. The operational runs of both the Euro and GFS are shifting around a bit from day to day as you'd expect. This is a tough pattern for sure. However, I think though the certainty that the first week of December is much colder (below to possibly well below seasonal averages) and possibly wet for the southern Plains and Texas is growing!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Definitely looks like things are setting up nicely to make next week a fun one across the southern plains. I just hope that the worst of the weather can hold off until Sunday night or beyond. I will be flying back to OKC through DFW on Sunday morning/afternoon and would prefer not to have to deal with delays (or cancellations) due to storms, heavy rain, low clouds, ice or snow.

All of those things are acceptable (and actually desired) starting around 4pm on Sunday though.

[snow and ice]

Looks like I better get the snow shovel, or better yet snow plow, out next Tuesday.

0z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192m.gif

[Portastorm]

Looks like I better get the snow shovel, or better yet snow plow, out next Tuesday.

0z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192m.gif

You like that? Well, what until you see the 12z run. Winter fun for everyone!