WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 133200 UTC
Lat : 12:54:28 N Lon : 141:54:11 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.7 / 874.0mb/161.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.5 7.5 7.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +21.0C Cloud Region Temp : -82.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.2T/18hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[oaba09]

Most intense tropical cyclones

1 Typhoon Tip ' 1979 870 mbar
2 Typhoon Gay " 1992 872 mbar
2Typhoon Ivan " 1997 872 mbar
2 Typhoon Joan " 1997 872 mbar
2 Typhoon Keith " 1997 872 mbar
2 Typhoon Zeb " 1998 872 mbar
3 Typhoon June " 1975 875 mbar
4 Typhoon Ida " 1958 877 mbar
4 Typhoon Nora " 1973 877 mbar

****************************

At 874 mbar, Nida is at #3

[Typhoon Hunter]

Remember JTWC is not official. JMA currently have this at 115kts (10 min average) which equals TY Jangmi last year. Jangmi had recon fly into it and if I remember rightly 125kt equivalent surface winds (10 min) were record. P.K please correct me if I'm wrong.

It's a shame since Guam is so close the USAF can't fly a quick mission!

[cycloneye]

Remember JTWC is not official. JMA currently have this at 115kts (10 min average) which equals TY Jangmi last year. Jangmi had recon fly into it and if I remember rightly 125kt equivalent surface winds (10 min) were record. P.K please correct me if I'm wrong.

It's a shame since Guam is so close the USAF can't fly a quick mission!

The official agency JMA never uses the word Super right?

[Iune]

Remember JTWC is not official. JMA currently have this at 115kts (10 min average) which equals TY Jangmi last year. Jangmi had recon fly into it and if I remember rightly 125kt equivalent surface winds (10 min) were record. P.K please correct me if I'm wrong.

It's a shame since Guam is so close the USAF can't fly a quick mission!

The official agency JMA never uses the word Super right?

Correct and I found out that Nida and Jangmi are the strongest storms of the decade and the strongest in JMA pressure since Zeb in 1998 with 900 hPa (mbar).

[oaba09]

We're witnessing a "legend" right now...

[JTE50]

Remember JTWC is not official. JMA currently have this at 115kts (10 min average) which equals TY Jangmi last year. Jangmi had recon fly into it and if I remember rightly 125kt equivalent surface winds (10 min) were record. P.K please correct me if I'm wrong.

It's a shame since Guam is so close the USAF can't fly a quick mission!

Hi James. I've never seen a hurricane/typhoon sustain any wind for a 10 min average. It's constantly surging so I'm more inclined to go with a JTWC classification. It's just makes more sense to me. If the wind blows at 170mph for 1 min. then heck, it's a 170mph not 132mph from my eyes!

I didn't see any C-130s at Andersen AFB last time I was there. They had a couple of F-22s though ! Having flown into a hurricane on a P3 I can say it took 4 bonnine pills to keep my breakfast down and talk about scary !! Unless you are an experienced weather crew, I think it would scare the pants off the fair weather flyers. I suspose they would pass on a chance to fly into a Super Typhoon.

[oaba09]

WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 250943Z SSMIS PASS INDICATE STY 26W HAS MAINTAINED A WELL
DEFINED, SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A SIGNIF-
ICANT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. A DVORAK FIX OF 7.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES,
AND A 6.5 FROM RJTD, SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS. NIDA
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY (50 KNOT IN 12 HOURS). THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE WITH INDICATIONS THAT A WARM POOL
NEAR 14N 142E WILL CAUSE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXPANSION IN THE RADIAL OUTFLOW
ALOFT SUPPORTING THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FIXES
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE INTENSITY FOR STY 26W HAS UNDERGONE
A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH HAS EFFECTED THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST.
B. STY 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED
AT 25N 160E. NIDA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERI-
PHERY OF THE STR, TURNING NORTHWARD BY TAU 72. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. AS STY 26W TRACKS NORTHWARD
GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CAUSING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEYOND
TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS UKMO, WHICH SHOWS A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
TAU 48. THIS REMAINS THE OUTLIER HOWEVER, WITH THE FORECAST BASED
PREDOMINANTLY ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS PREDOMINANTLY
SHIFTED TO A RECURVE SCENARIO AROUND TAU 96, HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE RECURVE POINT. ECMWF, NGPS, AND WBAR SHOW A SHARPER
RECURVATURE TOWARDS IWO TO AND CHICHI JIMA. GFS AND GFDN ARE MORE IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, INDICATING A SLOWER TURN TO THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST FAVORS A RE-CURVATURE SCENARIO BEGINNING NEAR TAU
120 WITH SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. THE PRIMARY
REASONING FOR THIS IS THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT STY 26W WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY SOUTH OF 20N AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE NORTHEASTERLY
COOL SURGE. ALL THE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW NORTH
OF 22N WITH VWS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A RECURVE AROUND 20N WITH A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AFTER
TAU 120.//
NNNN
***********************
Latest prognostic reasoning is favoring a recurve w/ the exception of 1 model...........

[CrazyC83]

My guess right now: 165 kt/886mb. Note the pressure I think is higher than some of those with weaker winds since the background pressure seems higher than usual. To get to Tip's pressure, it would need winds around 180 kt. Strongest storm of 2009 for sure, and probably the strongest globally (wind-wise at least) since at least Cyclone Monica in 2006 - maybe even longer.

[JTE50]

Here's a short MP4 clip of some of the wave action I shot today:
http://www.extremestorms.com/SuperTyphoon_Nida_Guam_1.mp4

One wide shot of the SE side of Guam today

[Typhoon Hunter]

Haha Jim, I know what you mean - 170mph over over 1 min would cause untold carnage. But amongst the official weather boffins, throughout the majority of the world wind speeds are measured over an average of 10 minutes, and it's only really the USA which decides to use 1 minute as a time scale.

If we're gonna be talking about any official records we need to pay attention to JMA (dedicated career tropical meteorologists) rather than JTWC (military mets on 3 year rotation.) Excuse my cynicism but you know what the origins of it is!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Jim, awesome video there! Is that the spot where Jim Leonard shot storm surge footage from typhoon Omar?

Pleased to hear TWC are airing the footage!

[KatDaddy]

Thanks for sharing the video Jim!

I just saw on the NRL site that Nida is forecast to reach 172G219mph!

[CrazyC83]

25/1432 UTC 13.1N 141.8E T7.5/7.5 NIDA -- West Pacific

Still holding its amazing strength.

[HURAKAN]

WOW

[CrazyC83]

That beast sure must have overeaten the turkey...

[JTE50]

Haha Jim, I know what you mean - 170mph over over 1 min would cause untold carnage. But amongst the official weather boffins, throughout the majority of the world wind speeds are measured over an average of 10 minutes, and it's only really the USA which decides to use 1 minute as a time scale.

If we're gonna be talking about any official records we need to pay attention to JMA (dedicated career tropical meteorologists) rather than JTWC (military mets on 3 year rotation.) Excuse my cynicism but you know what the origins of it is!

NHC doesn't use 10 min average either.

[CrazyC83]

If ADT is to be believed, Tip has been TIED at 870mb...but background pressures seem to be running above normal in the area, so it is probably about 15mb too low.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 NOV 2009 Time : 171600 UTC
Lat : 13:36:37 N Lon : 141:22:43 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.8 / 869.6mb/164.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.8 7.8 7.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +21.1C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[CrazyC83]

Could it go to T8.0?