Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[HockeyTx82]

Ok, maybe someone on here could explain this to me. I have never understood why here in Texas (North Texas) we are able to get cold but never have enough moisture to support any kind of precip. We always seem to be 33 and rain or < 32 and nothing. Why is it that the middle of the country that has no large bodies of water, i.e. the Gulf of Mexico, anywhere close and they get blizzards with feet of snow. Where does all of the moisture come from? Do things have to line up just right for North Texas to get winter precip? Is it really a rarity to get any kind of winter precip here in North Texas? That and it seems that winter storms just come up out of no where around these parts and most of the time they tend to start in the hill country and stay south of DFW. Just wanted to throw that out there and see what you all have to say. Thanks ahead of time.

My questions comes from this snippet from the Ft Worth NWS that and just living in NTX my whole life.

ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREEING FAIRLY WELL ON FRONTAL
TIMING. FAIRLY COOL AIR WILL STREAM IN...BUT THIS IS NOT ARCTIC
AIR AND RAIN IS THE PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT
MONDAY EVENING...SO BY THE TIME IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
WINTER PRECIPITATION IT WILL BE TOO DRY TO PRODUCE ANY. THIS IS
TYPICAL OF TEXAS COLD FRONTS...SO THIS IS NOT AN EXCEPTION.

[richtrav]

Well North Texas is at, what, the 32nd-33rd parallel? And just a few hundred feet above sea level at that. Frequent winter weather at such a low latitude and elevation is an awful lot to ask for. That it occurs at all is probably the result of the unique way the southern plains is situated on the North American continent, but even then it takes a lot of things to fall into place for such an event to occur.

As for the rest of you, God bless your hearts I can't help but feel for you, always -removed- for these fantasy winter storms that rarely transpire (Lucy and the football). Every winter I can reliably stop in here and catch you in the act of -removed- for the next 1989 and every time you're wrong - so far at least, thank heavens. Reagan is gone but maybe you could write Jimmy Carter to see if he could bring back some of his old winters to 2009, cause they sure don't make 'em like they used to.

[gboudx]

Well North Texas is at, what, the 32nd-33rd parallel? And just a few hundred feet above sea level at that. Frequent winter weather at such a low latitude and elevation is an awful lot to ask for. That it occurs at all is probably the result of the unique way the southern plains is situated on the North American continent, but even then it takes a lot of things to fall into place for such an event to occur.

This was kind of useful. +rep if we had a rep system.

As for the rest of you, God bless your hearts I can't help but feel for you, always -removed- for these fantasy winter storms that rarely transpire (Lucy and the football). Every winter I can reliably stop in here and catch you in the act of -removed- for the next 1989 and every time you're wrong - so far at least, thank heavens. Reagan is gone but maybe you could write Jimmy Carter to see if he could bring back some of his old winters to 2009, cause they sure don't make 'em like they used to.

This was not useful. -rep if we had a rep system.

[Portastorm]

Well North Texas is at, what, the 32nd-33rd parallel? And just a few hundred feet above sea level at that. Frequent winter weather at such a low latitude and elevation is an awful lot to ask for. That it occurs at all is probably the result of the unique way the southern plains is situated on the North American continent, but even then it takes a lot of things to fall into place for such an event to occur.

As for the rest of you, God bless your hearts I can't help but feel for you, always -removed- for these fantasy winter storms that rarely transpire (Lucy and the football). Every winter I can reliably stop in here and catch you in the act of -removed- for the next 1989 and every time you're wrong - so far at least, thank heavens. Reagan is gone but maybe you could write Jimmy Carter to see if he could bring back some of his old winters to 2009, cause they sure don't make 'em like they used to.

I feel compelled to respond despite the fact that the tenor of my response will be predictable.

Tell me where you see any -removed-? To my knowledge, we've merely been talking about model runs and how likely (or unlikely) they are in their depiction. I will, however, go out on the limb and bet you that Dallas has at least one day early next week of at least 8 degrees below normal if not 10 degrees below norms. I will also wager that north Texas will see several days at 10 to possibly 15 degrees below normal between now and Dec. 15th. So there ... if you want to accuse someone here of -removed-, place your placard on me! Want to take me up on the wager?

No one (this year so far) has mentioned 1989. Last year ... yep, it happened and the actual weather did not happen. So be it. The discussion and debate provided entertainment and education for many of us.

So, all of this being said, how about if you add something of value to this thread instead of poking at folks. Tell us what you think of the GFS and Euro runs long term?

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z sure looks rather chilly in the meduim range. Nice ridge in AK. Arctic Air still looks to move S next week.

[Ntxw]

So who in Texas has the best chances of seeing any wintry precip next week (if any outside the panhandle, they always do lol ) and is it a better bet to believe in when the NAM model starts picking it up as we get closer?

[srainhoutx]

I tend to use all the tools in the tool box so to speak. The NAM certainly has some strengths in the shorter range, but like all models, it's trends we look to IMHO.

[snow and ice]

The 12z run of the EURO continues to look very cold for the end of next week, blocking over the top and a deep trough over the central and southern plains. The Ensembles have a very similar solution for the same time frame.

As far as early next week is concerned, the EURO and operation GFS now have the same basic solution as far as the upper level feature is concerned. Someone under the core of the upper level low, where-ever it eventually tracks, will probably get a pretty decent snow. Then the real cold will follow at the end of next week.
12z EURO-Ensembles comparison-8-10 days:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

[snow and ice]

Now that is a cold looking pattern:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9112512!!/

[rainman31]

I love this time of year. Just moved to north Texas from the gulf coast of Texas. I can't wait for the cold temps. bring it on.

[srainhoutx]

Now that is a cold looking pattern:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9112512!!/

The interesting thing to watch will be the PV depicted near the Great Lakes. That would certainly help in the way of snowcover across the Plains. I suspect the chatter from WFO's across the region will pick up if this trend continues.

[vbhoutex]

Very true David. Modified Canadian Air, but the trend is to see more of these type fronts coming down. I like to think of it as a stair stepping process. The trend is stepping down (cooler) over time. And more chances to add the "snow cover" to our N.

Lubbock offered a "hint" at the end of their AFD this morning...snipet..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009



ALTHOUGH A MOOT POINT THIS FAR OUT...THERE IS A SURPRISING AMOUNT
OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BECOME
DISLODGED EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BEGIN MOTORING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY MIDWEEK.

Not a thing I can disagree with there!! That is exactly what is happening. Each time we are trending cooler/colder. Next step as you say is for the snow cover to increase and of course, the snow Gods have to be happy too

[Portastorm]

If the 12z GFS run were to be believed (and I'm not sure that I do as the run is different than its last few runs with both a fairly potent upper low in west Texas and surface cyclogenesis in the NW Gulf at the same time), Austin would have temps hovering in the upper 30s on Tuesday with a very cold rain and the possibility of ice/snow at the tail end of the event as thicknesses lower to the magical 540 line.

The afternoon AFD out of NWSFO New Braunfels references this as well:

(snippet below)
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE HILL COUNTRY TUESDAY
MORNING. GFS IS INDICATING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER
THROUGH TUESDAY. COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR THE FIRST MORNING OF
DECEMBER. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND MENTIONED THIS CHANCE IN THE GRIDS.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AT BEST AS THIS IS THE DAYS 6-7 TIME FRAME
AND THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR COULD BE PUSHED IN
EITHER DIRECTION BY A FEW HOURS AND/OR THE AIRMASS COULD DRY OUT
QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
345 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-260600-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
345 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

...COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

ANOTHER FALL RAIN MAKING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND AND CAUSE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
RAIN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY...AND THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

IT WILL BE TURNING COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SOME OF THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD BE MIXED
WITH SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE
HILL COUNTRY. LOWS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE
MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

[joshskeety]

Abilene chipping in here..

Been keeping an eye on the models.. In both days (yesterday and today) the 18z run of the GFS it has tried to squash this storm, just to bring it back on the next run. I noticed the 12z ECMWF was starting to look more like the 12z GFS also. Hmm..

Anyhow.. The NAM is coming down the pipe now and the GFS is getting ready to start.. Im interested to see if the GFS will bring moisture back into the cold air over North Texas like i tdid last night, or if it will continue to push it south and abosultely no 500mb convergence with the Northern Jet..

Here is the Abilene/San Angelo discussion.. Like normal they are picking the ECMWF over the GFS on this run, but they arent ruling anything out.. However, when I lived in Virginia for a few years, I noticed they weren't hesitant putting snow in medium forecast, but here in Texas, there is no chance in HELL they are going to put snow in a forecast 4 days out, not even if the 1988 El Paso Stowstorm is showing with 20 straight runs.. They just won't do it..

FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK COULD ONLY BE
CALLED PROBLEMATIC...AND THATS BEING GENEROUS AND NOT CALLING IT
SOMETHING MUCH WORSE. GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST US. THEY DIVERGE AFTER THAT...WITH THE GFS SLOWLY
SPINNING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...WHILE THE ECMWF OPENS IT UP AGAIN. AGAIN...THE
TIMING OF THE MAIN TROUGH INTO TEXAS IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME.
DIFFERENCE IS IN HOW MUCH ENERGY IS SUCKED INTO THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM AND THUS WHETHER IS STAYS CLOSED OFF OR NOT.

THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION PRODUCES WIDESPREAD...AND SIGNIFICANT
WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
..WHILE THE WEAKER ECMWF PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO PRECIP FOR US. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT AND WILL LEAN THAT
DIRECTION...BUT THE GFS IS ALSO A PERFECTLY VALID SOLUTION THAT
CAN NOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL LOWER
TEMPS SOME...INCREASE CLOUD COVER...AND EXPAND THE POPS OUT TO
SOME DEGREE...BUT STAY FAR AWAY FROM TEMPS COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTER
PRECIP AND FAR FROM THE POP NUMBERS THE GFS IS ACTUALLY GIVING.

[joshskeety]

Btw.. Looking at the 0z NAM, the cold air is looking way more supressed out to 78h up north, however, the NAM is showing the 500mb low coming around nicely.. Will be tomorrow before the NAM starts to see this storm...

[wxman22]

For what its worth the 0z GFS still shows the cold core low that the 12z was showing...

[iorange55]

I'm liking the GFS 0z showing that low hanging around Texas for a few days

[joshskeety]

Looking at the 0z GFS, things are looking even more interesting for West Central and West Texas.

Here is the setup.. Closed low off of California picks up steam. Picks up Pacific moisture at the same time a polar front is moving through Texas. The Low retains that colder air and begins to pump heavy snow over the Davis Mountains and even as far south as Big Ben and Northern Mexico/El paso areas..

Closed low begins to converge with the Northern Jet, and energy begins being transfered to a new low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, although the cold air has retreated, the closed low and moisture retains enough cold air to keep everything snow.. as we get to about 130-144h we see the more transfer to the gulf low and cut off low begins to lose moisture..

The 18z run had the closed low 100 miles further south, which is a typical bias of the GFS 5 to 6 days out. I still believe the closed low, if it remains closed (Remember ECMWF shows the closed low, but it gets eaten up before it has a chance to retain its moisture) it will be further north and Highly doubt Chihuahua and Del Rio gets snow as the GFS is trying to suggest.. I think it will be further north and a tad faster mover..

The problem with this is will this keep the polar front south enough for the closed low to trap that cold air enough to see Snow south of Amarillo? Hard to say at this point.. Its rather obvious that models are having major issues with this closed low, mostly because it hasn't developed yet and wont for a few more days. By that time we will won't be watching the GFS anymore, but the NAM anyway.. Rarely do I see closed lows dig much further south than where it begins; and not coming all the way through Texas so I believe this setup could be quite interesting..

Either way, it does look as if Texas will see SOME snow, but Texas is a big state.. lol

HOWEVER.. Skiers at Ski Apachi and Cloudcroft in this setup will have at least a foot of new powder with this setup.. That I can almost guarantee..

El Nino's are always fun in Texas..

[wxman22]

The most interesting thing is that this is the same scenario that broought snow to Southeast Texas last year,it would be very coincidental to get the same setup 2 years in a row and at about the same time...lol