Significant change
WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 139.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 139.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.5N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.4N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.0N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.2N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 22.9N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 23.1N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 139.5E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (NIDA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
AND AN IRREGULAR 20-NM EYE. A 281835Z TRMM IMAGE, HOWEVER, STILL
SHOWS A ROUND EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND RECENT
ERRATIC, SLOW MOTION BASED ON IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
STILL INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THIS
FORECAST REFLECTS A SIGNIFICANT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CHANGE FROM A RE-
CURVE SCENARIO TO A DISSIPATION SCENARIO (IN ACCORDANCE WITH OUR
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED ALTERNATE SCENARIO). NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN POOR AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF AIDS (UKMO, ECMWF, TC-
LAPS, JGSM, NOGAPS) SUPPORT A DISSIPATION SCENARIO WITH GFS, WBAR
AND GFDN STILL INDICATING A RE-CURVE TRACK. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE
DISSIPATION SCENARIO AND IS BASED ON ANALYSES, WHICH SHOW THE LOW-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE EAST, AND ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL PRODUCE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT WILL SERVE TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD, AFTER
TAU 36. STY 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO 25-30 KNOT STRENGTH AND WILL BEGIN TO TRACK UNDER THE LOW-
LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN
Just back in from drowing my lack of typhoon action with a few beers. Wish I could roll some film inside the eye of Nida.
lol
