Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

gofrogs · #261 Postby **gofrogs** » Fri Nov 27, 2009 11:00 pm

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KFTW
here you go man enjoy

rainman31 · #262 Postby **rainman31** » Fri Nov 27, 2009 11:13 pm

Does that show it to be below freezing for 4 days. :cold:

with precip.

gofrogs · #263 Postby **gofrogs** » Fri Nov 27, 2009 11:26 pm

haha yessur six i thought whatever it would be a beast of a storm

iorange55 · #264 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 5:42 am

iorange55 · #265 Postby **iorange55** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 5:46 am

Also the Dallas NWS has put in a chance of light snow Tuesday night for the Southwestern Counties of North Texas for the first time. This is coming a long way from 3 days ago when they said no snow at all. Maybe they'll come around even more for all of North Texas :wink:

#266 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 7:46 am

The 0z Euro run is even further north now with the track of the upper low early next week. Should it verify, only portions of northwest Texas (line from Van Horn-Lubbock-Wichita Falls) would see the possibility of snow. The rest of us? A cold rain. I am intrigued though by the differences between the Euro and GFS runs from 0z for later next week. The former is much colder for Texas than the latter.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

joshskeety · #267 Postby **joshskeety** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 9:41 am

From what Im seeing, it looks that you could draw a box from Chihuahua to El Paso, from El Paso to Witchita Falls, from Witchita falls to Sonora and Sonara to Chihuahua... If you are in that box the changes fo seeing some significant snow is pretty likely.. haha Its not a perfect box, but weather is not perfect.. lol

joshskeety · #268 Postby **joshskeety** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 9:59 am

The NAM is on board to give West/West Central/North Texas some significant frozen precip.. However, the 84h shows sleet, but given the NAM's tipical 1-2 degree C warm bias, and the fact that most of the NWS Discussions think it will be snow, this could end up being a major, major storm..

This setup REALLY reminds me of the Easter 1996 storm that dumbed 2 feet of snow on places such as Sweetwater and Big Spring, 8 inches in Abilene, 6 inches in San Angelo.. Cut off low, not a significant amount of cold air, but low wet bulbs that keep temps down and a high amount of moisture.. Not saying those storm totals will be right because doesnt seem there is THAT much precip, but the setup is IDENTICAL..

#269 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 10:11 am

joshskeety wrote:The NAM is on board to give West/West Central/North Texas some significant frozen precip.. However, the 84h shows sleet, but given the NAM's tipical 1-2 degree C warm bias, and the fact that most of the NWS Discussions think it will be snow, this could end up being a major, major storm..

This setup REALLY reminds me of the Easter 1996 storm that dumbed 2 feet of snow on places such as Sweetwater and Big Spring, 8 inches in Abilene, 6 inches in San Angelo.. Cut off low, not a significant amount of cold air, but low wet bulbs that keep temps down and a high amount of moisture.. Not saying those storm totals will be right because doesnt seem there is THAT much precip, but the setup is IDENTICAL..

Interesting post, joshskeety. It will be fun to watch it unfold and see how the event shapes up with the 1996 event. Good points about the NAM and its warm bias. We need to remember that this winter.

msstateguy83 · #270 Postby **msstateguy83** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 10:47 am

great post joshskeety. I have to also agree and i dont understand why oun is going harder on
this, i think the highs for the w.falls area are a bit high for tuesday i would expect a major snow
storm of sorts to be ongoing between abilene and w.falls late mon - early am on wed... this is
not locked in but this does very look like the 96 easter storm you mentioned.

#271 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 10:56 am

12z GFS is running now. Looks like it's coming closer to the Euro scenario with the location of the upper low a bit further north than previous runs.

#272 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 1:59 pm

Regarding the eventual track of the Upper Low. Sometimes I think it is important to look a the BIG Picture. Guidance will give hints, but the actual outcome can and often is totally different than guidance suggests. An example is the current shortwave tracking across the southern tier of TX. Perhaps the next storm system will follow along it's heals as this has been a rather persisant track so far this fall. We shall see. I am not speculating anything, but just throwing an observation out for future discussion.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

joshskeety · #273 Postby **joshskeety** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 1:59 pm

12z ECMWF..

The Low is further north than the GFS.. Tuesday morning shows 850mb temps close to 0 from Wichita Falls to Sonora west.. 850mb Humitity levels are close to 100% from about I-10 northward until you get to just north of Abilene where they begin to drop off dramitically.. This shows Witicha Fallas at only about 40-50% humidity which could = virga for Tuesday morning, so the atmosphere would need some time to moist up, but that does happen at 96h by a long shot, so how long that takes is the key.. How much moisture is left.

We are still more than 72h out, but if the ECMWF is right I would place my crosshairs (outside of the Davis Mountains) to a triangle of San Angelo/Sweetwater/Midland as the highest snowfall totals.. 6-8 inches maybe??

#274 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 4:08 pm

I see El Paso has issued a Winter Storm Warning. I suspect a lot of interesting wording from the various WFO's this afternoon with such a complicated forecast ahead. These type Upper Lows are known for surprises. :wink:

Concerning the longer range. OKC offered a "hint" concerning colder air later next week...snipet...

IN THE 7 TO 9 DAY PERIODS... THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER THAN THE PRIOR COUPLE OF RUNS AS IT PLUNGES
CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. SINCE MOST OF THE
CHANGE OCCURS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD THERE WILL
BE A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS TO EXAMINE BEFORE IT MOVES VERY FAR
INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ntxweatherwatcher · #275 Postby **ntxweatherwatcher** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 4:58 pm

Snippet from FW NOAA discussion:

THE SECOND COMPLICATION IS THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WET BULB ZERO OF THE LOWEST 200 MB JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. IF THIS VERIFIES...IT WILL SIMPLY MEAN COLD RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA...HOWEVER THERMAL PROFILES AND MOISTURE CONTENT WILL HAVE
TO BE EVALUATED CAREFULLY AS THIS EVENT APPROACHES TO DIAGNOSE ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING. FOR NOW AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS ARE AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 35. FOR NOW THIS LOOKS TO BE
ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT. SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.

Sounds like things may get interesting!!

#276 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 5:40 pm

The afternoon NCEP forecast discussion which primarily looks at ensembles in their entirety for all models is talking about new developments which could spell a much colder airmass impacting the western U.S. by next weekend. All in all, I'm starting to think we're in a "step down" mode into some real winter weather for December.

Here's the snippet:

IN CONTRAST...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND
USED THIS MORNING HAD A FLATTER MEAN 500MB RIDGE CLOSER TO THE W
COAST OF NOAM WITH THE MAIN TROF MUCH FARTHER E OVER THE E CENTRAL
CONUS. THE NEW DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DATELINE SHOULD THROW UP A
STRONG 500MB RIDGE AHEAD OF IT ALONG 140W...WHICH COULD INDEED
ALLOW FOR STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND COLDER AIR OVER THE NW PORTION
OF THE LOWER 48 THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

#277 Postby **srainhoutx** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 6:18 pm

Anyone glance at the 18Z GFS? :eek:

joshskeety · #278 Postby **joshskeety** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 7:37 pm

Geez SJT.. Get a clue...

CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AFFECTS THE
AREA SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH TAKES IT ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA
EARLY TUE THEN NE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS TUE NIGHT. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TUE/TUE NIGHT AND EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
WILL DETERMINE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS ISENTROPIC
LIFT INCREASES OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN BOTH
SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
WHERE GREATEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WINTER PRECIP WILL OCCUR ON TUE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS TUE
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW. LATEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A
RAIN/SLEET MIX ACROSS FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS SUNRISE
TUE THEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS AND SNOW WEST TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ON
TUE WHERE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL...THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS RATHER LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME
BUT THIS COULD CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS.

#279 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 7:42 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Anyone glance at the 18Z GFS?

Haaa! Texas would see mutiple winter weather events if that run verified! The good ol' 18z GFS ... always worth its value in entertainment.

joshskeety · #280 Postby **joshskeety** » Sat Nov 28, 2009 7:47 pm

The 12z ECMWF has 850mb temps 4-5 degrees C over West Texas and the Big Country for this time period.. How will it be 39 degrees especially with the same model showing Wet Bulbs and dewpoints in the upper 20's and lower 30's during the same time period.. So I guess we will have heavy snow with 70% humidity...

SURE...

Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Re:

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Who is online