Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[srainhoutx]

Meh. I'll give the WFO's a benefit of doubt until we see the storm track. That's the key ragarding wintry precip and who gets it. W TX looks to win big early on.

Water Vapor Imagery...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

A lot of Dynamic with this fearture. Saw reports of thunder in S CA this afternoon.

Edit to add the storm has been sampled with Upper Air data. 00Z run should be interesting.

[iorange55]

The 00z nam is showing a you know what load of precip over North Texas, but it looks like it's not showing as much cold air with the low, or something. I know someone said the Nam is warm biased, but yeah. If only we could get that much precip as snow, that'd be amazing. Won't happen, i'm sure, but still.

[wxgirl69]

What about southeast texas. I know snow is out of the question.. Is the cold air going to modify before it reaches us?

[Portastorm]

Interesting to note this morning that the 0z Euro and the 0z GFS have switched places again with regards to the track of the upper low. The Euro now tracks the low further south across Texas while the GFS and Canadian take the low along the trajectory of yesterday's 0z Euro!

These upper lows are pesky and it wouldn't surprise me to see the models make further adjustments.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[Portastorm]

What about southeast texas. I know snow is out of the question.. Is the cold air going to modify before it reaches us?

Your highs are progged between 49-55 Monday through Wednesday. I guess it depends on what you consider "cold."

[joshskeety]

This is still pretty far out for the NAM and it has major problems with being too warm and too moist.. You can see this with comparing the ECMWF and GFS to it..

The track of the low seems pretty clear minus 50 miles or so, but what it is question is how much cold air there will be.. NWS things that a line from childress/Sweetwater/San Angelo/Ozona west will only see accum, even though the GFS shows otherwise..

So one of two things will happen.. Either the models are right on with the temps or they are underestimating temps. The NAM has gotten a tad colder from 6z to 12z, but nowhere near the GFS/ECMWF..

I know one thing, its going to be fun to watch this thing develop..


Josh

[srainhoutx]

A quick look at the early 12Z GFS suggests a track similar to the 00Z EC now. I did notice that the moisture look limited near the Upper Low as a surface feature is back on the table in the NW GOM. Also noticed the 850mb zero degree line has plunged a bit further S into S TX. I suspect this pattern will repeat it's self many times this winter and we will have a lot of interesting discussions as time goes on. Got to love El Nino Winters in TX.

[iorange55]

I still can't tell if Dallas will get anything, or not. I'm guessing not judging from the NWS discussion, but then again they didn't think anybody would see snow, so who knows. We never know till the last freaking minute here.

[cheezyWXguy]

I dont know if Dallas well get anything out of this besides rain, though I still believe theres a chance. However, I think some focus should be directed towards another system in the future. The GFS has consistently been developing a massive high, which begins showing up in about 100 hours, and then building to 1053mb and taking up just about the entire western half of canada, according to the 12z (6z was similar as well). Assuming this were to really happen and a 1050+mb high plummets southward in about 8 days, we would be more than set for cold air.

[joshskeety]

Air already colder than progged..

Progged was 45 by 3PM

its 11:46 and its 46 degrees and dropping.. Could be in the upper 30's by 3PM here..

Im sure SJT wont even mention it though..

[HockeyTx82]

The front blew into Denton (north side of town around UNT) around 12. I was standing outside of church and to the north were darker looking clouds. Once they hit the wind picked up and the temp dropped at least 10 degrees if not more. Well time to go and hang up the Chirstmas lights.

[joshskeety]

Tuscola, Texas (Home of Colt McCoy) where I live..

43.1 Degrees @ 2PM

SJT said it would be 45 by 3PM.. We should get an apology.. HAHAhAHAHA

[vbhoutex]

I dont know if Dallas well get anything out of this besides rain, though I still believe theres a chance. However, I think some focus should be directed towards another system in the future. The GFS has consistently been developing a massive high, which begins showing up in about 100 hours, and then building to 1053mb and taking up just about the entire western half of canada, according to the 12z (6z was similar as well). Assuming this were to really happen and a 1050+mb high plummets southward in about 8 days, we would be more than set for cold air.

I was looking at the models and that caught my eye too. Long ways out, but if it verifies... .

[vbhoutex]

A quick look at the early 12Z GFS suggests a track similar to the 00Z EC now. I did notice that the moisture look limited near the Upper Low as a surface feature is back on the table in the NW GOM. Also noticed the 850mb zero degree line has plunged a bit further S into S TX. I suspect this pattern will repeat it's self many times this winter and we will have a lot of interesting discussions as time goes on. Got to love El Nino Winters in TX.

Tease, tease, tease until/if IT happens!!-All Winter long! LOL!!
Is it me and not watching closely enough or is the ULL slowing down a little on its' Eastward trek?

[snow and ice]

Just took a look at the 12Z Ensembles, and they look very, very cold.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f240.html

[srainhoutx]

A quick look at the early 12Z GFS suggests a track similar to the 00Z EC now. I did notice that the moisture look limited near the Upper Low as a surface feature is back on the table in the NW GOM. Also noticed the 850mb zero degree line has plunged a bit further S into S TX. I suspect this pattern will repeat it's self many times this winter and we will have a lot of interesting discussions as time goes on. Got to love El Nino Winters in TX.

Is it me and not watching closely enough or is the ULL slowing down a little on its' Eastward trek?

That's what I'm noticing as well as being a little further S in it's trek across TX. Keeps us under the clouds through Wednesday into early Thursday. I just took a quick look at the 18Z NAM. That should get some activity from the N TX folks if this trend continues.

[joshskeety]

NAM GOES CRAZY ON DFW for 60h-78h.. Could see significant snow..

WOW....

[Ntxw]

Talk about an early december North Texas miracle *hint hint* jk

[srainhoutx]

Perhaps some sleet pellets NW of Houston. Hmmm...Remember the NAM has a drier bias with these type of systems as well.

[Portastorm]

Whoo boy ... things are getting tough around here if we're going to hang our hats on a NAM run, let alone an 18z NAM run!

But what the heck ... I can see where that run would make some of our DFW members happy winter folk.