WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

[StormingB81]

Even JTWC has it now going up north then to the West. But like Ozonepete said looks liek its only a matter of time now before it fizzles hopefully!

[ManilaTC]

Models going bonkers now...

Interestingly since Ketsana/Ondoy, these some storms after him have crazy unpredictable tracks?

[ozonepete]

The models often have trouble with stationary storms, since by definition there are no longer any strong steering currents. And yes, there have been a number of stall-outs this year, including in the Atlantic. This one immediately makes me think of Parma.

[ozonepete]

This one also looks like it could become annular. If it does it could last longer, even though weakened a lot, because the annular structure is a very stable one.

[StormingB81]

It looks like it is starting to move north went but its been moving every which way the last several hours..lol Im sure soon we will get a def answer of where it is heading

[dexterlabio]

nida is going to hell o_O i believe this will be the last day of nida as a supertyphoon. the circulation seems to be decaying already, it has been stalled for several hours...

anyway, another threat is coming. 97W is consolidating in the Pacific. it seems that 2009 season wants to end with a BANG...

[cycloneye]

JTWC 00:00Z Warning - 125 KTS

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.3N 139.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 139.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.7N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 20.8N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.6N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.3N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.8N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.5N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 139.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WAS
DOWNGRADED TO TYPHOON STATUS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
115 TO 127 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 37
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

[ozonepete]

[quote="dexterlabio"]nida is going to hell o_O i believe this will be the last day of nida as a supertyphoon. the circulation seems to be decaying already, it has been stalled for several hours...
[quote]

Nice call, since as you see they just downgraded it from super-typhoon to typhoon. And it's becoming clear that when this starts to dissipate it will go down really quickly, like Ida did in the Gulf of Mexico. It's probably going to get hit with shear, dry air, and upwelled cool water all around the same time. Even if there's some kind of LLC left, it won't really matter.

[CrazyC83]

It's probably lower than that now. My guess is about 110 kt.

[ozonepete]

It's probably lower than that now. My guess is about 110 kt.

I agree. Could be 115KT but no more.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[oaba09]

so what does the latest tracks say? Sorry im on my phone so i cant really view the images well.

[ozonepete]

so what does the latest tracks say? Sorry im on my phone so i cant really view the images well.

The models, as almost always with a stationary system, can't really resolve the motion yet. I'm still pretty convinced it's going north and northeast out along the northern boundary of the STR.

What I'm much more fascinated with right now is that is appears it is becoming annular - the big donut with the large eye. This is a very stable structure, and so it may stay a minimal typhoon or a strong tropical storm longer than forecasted rather than dissipating very quickly.

[Grifforzer]

FXPQ20 RJTD 290000
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TY 0922 NIDA (0922)
PSTN 290000UTC 19.3N 139.4E
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 95KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=006 19.2N 139.2E +005HPA -004KT
T=012 19.2N 138.9E +009HPA -006KT
T=018 18.9N 138.4E +009HPA -008KT
T=024 18.5N 137.8E +013HPA -010KT
T=030 18.1N 137.0E +012HPA -011KT
T=036 17.8N 136.0E +015HPA -011KT
T=042 17.4N 134.9E +014HPA -013KT
T=048 17.2N 133.8E +017HPA -014KT
T=054 16.9N 132.8E +015HPA -014KT
T=060 16.5N 131.8E +018HPA -013KT
T=066 16.1N 130.7E +016HPA -014KT
T=072 15.7N 129.5E +019HPA -015KT

---
going southwestward?

[bahamaswx]

Madness. Upwelling must be hurting Nida by now, but the latest EWRC looks to be more or less complete. The next 24hrs or so will be interesting.

[ozonepete]

FXPQ20 RJTD 290000
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TY 0922 NIDA (0922)
PSTN 290000UTC 19.3N 139.4E
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 95KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=006 19.2N 139.2E +005HPA -004KT
T=012 19.2N 138.9E +009HPA -006KT
T=018 18.9N 138.4E +009HPA -008KT
T=024 18.5N 137.8E +013HPA -010KT
T=030 18.1N 137.0E +012HPA -011KT
T=036 17.8N 136.0E +015HPA -011KT
T=042 17.4N 134.9E +014HPA -013KT
T=048 17.2N 133.8E +017HPA -014KT
T=054 16.9N 132.8E +015HPA -014KT
T=060 16.5N 131.8E +018HPA -013KT
T=066 16.1N 130.7E +016HPA -014KT
T=072 15.7N 129.5E +019HPA -015KT

---
going southwestward?

They can't resolve the eye position yet because it went from quite small to quite large. Looks to me like it's still going nowhere, i.e. stationary.

[ozonepete]

Madness. Upwelling must be hurting Nida by now, but the latest EWRC looks to be more or less complete. The next 24hrs or so will be interesting.

Upwelling is definitely going on, but it's gone annular, which will stabilize it. That also means there probably won't be any more ERCs. It will probably hang onto the tail end of that boundary between the polar westerlies and the STR for another 24 hours or so and then eventually get pulled northeastward. Beautiful looking storm.

[oaba09]

Wow...this thing is quite fascinating..........

[oaba09]

so what does the latest tracks say? Sorry im on my phone so i cant really view the images well.

The models, as almost always with a stationary system, can't really resolve the motion yet. I'm still pretty convinced it's going north and northeast out along the northern boundary of the STR.

What I'm much more fascinated with right now is that is appears it is becoming annular - the big donut with the large eye. This is a very stable structure, and so it may stay a minimal typhoon or a strong tropical storm longer than forecasted rather than dissipating very quickly.

Cool! Thanks!

[ManilaTC]

FXPQ20 RJTD 290000
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TY 0922 NIDA (0922)
PSTN 290000UTC 19.3N 139.4E
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 95KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=006 19.2N 139.2E +005HPA -004KT
T=012 19.2N 138.9E +009HPA -006KT
T=018 18.9N 138.4E +009HPA -008KT
T=024 18.5N 137.8E +013HPA -010KT
T=030 18.1N 137.0E +012HPA -011KT
T=036 17.8N 136.0E +015HPA -011KT
T=042 17.4N 134.9E +014HPA -013KT
T=048 17.2N 133.8E +017HPA -014KT
T=054 16.9N 132.8E +015HPA -014KT
T=060 16.5N 131.8E +018HPA -013KT
T=066 16.1N 130.7E +016HPA -014KT
T=072 15.7N 129.5E +019HPA -015KT

---
going southwestward?

you have a link for this mate?