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Re: Caribbean - CA - Web Cams,Obs,Forecasts,Daily Weather

#3241 Postby msbee » Sat Nov 28, 2009 12:23 pm

I like that idea too. I woudl like to see more people posting here.
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Web Cams,Obs,Forecasts,Daily Weather

#3242 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 28, 2009 1:35 pm


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES EXPECTED...THE
FIRST PASSING MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE ENE COMPONENT IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST
OF THESE SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AT ROUND SUNSET. A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING.


A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND AN ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
...WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA GENERATING
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SLOW MOVING SHRA/TSRA OVER TJPS NEXT FEW HOURS TO END BY
22Z. OTHERWISE VFR. VA FROM MONTSERRAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TISX
WITH DIFFUSE ASH PLUME PERHAPS REACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO BUT NOT
CREATING ANY VIS OBSTRUCTION. TURNING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO ENE
DIRECTION WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW PLUME TO SHIFT SOUTH OF ALL SITES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN INVADING THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
EARLY SUNDAY...BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WHILE
BECOMING MORE NORTH.

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Re: Caribbean - CA - Web Cams,Obs,Forecasts,Daily Weather

#3243 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 28, 2009 3:12 pm

msbee wrote:I like that idea too. I woudl like to see more people posting here.


I also would like to see much more people posting here but I know that during quiet periods during the hurricane seasons and along the six months of the off-seasons,the boards trend to be less active. However,knowing the Caribbean and Centralamerica friends are always in action :) I know this thread will mantain a fairly active pace.And more now that we have a new forum and a new title at Talking Tropics forum. :)
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Re: Caribbean - CA - Web Cams,Obs,Forecasts,Daily Weather

#3244 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 28, 2009 7:55 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
646 PM AST SAT NOV 28 2009

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE ANTICIPATED AS
GRIDS AND WORDING LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. AS BOUNDARY LAYER SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DIMINISHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. LOOK FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO DOMINATE
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WINDWARD NORTHEAST FACING
COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER ALL SITES NEXT 18 HOURS. VA
FROM MONTSERRAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TISX WITH DIFFUSE ASH PLUME
PERHAPS REACHING SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VC OF TJPS
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT CREATING ANY VIS OBSTRUCTION. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO
THE ENE SUFFICIENTLY TO KEEP ASH AWAY FROM THE TJSJ SITE.

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Re: Caribbean - CA - Web Cams,Obs,Forecasts,Daily Weather

#3245 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 28, 2009 8:13 pm

The Latest on the Soufriere Volcano

20 to 27 November 2009

Activity at the Soufrière Hills Volcano has been at a high level this week.
There have been five hundred rockfall signals, three hundred and ten long period events, and fourteen hybrid earthquakes recorded.

Activity increased on 21st November and periods of tremor, many occurring in cycles, have taken place since 23rd November. The tremor episodes are typically formed by long period and hybrid earthquakes increasing in frequency until they form a continuous seismic signal. The increase in activity was associated with a shift in the focus of lava extrusion from the western side moving more to the summit region. This shift resulted in the onset of abundant pyroclastic flows moving down Tuitt's Ghaut on 23rd November for the first time in several weeks.

On Wednesday 24th November starting at 12:50 pm there was a period of about 120 minutes of continuous pyroclastic flow activity, followed by ninety minutes of semi-continuous flow activity. Pyroclastic flows associated with these events occurred mainly to the west down the Gages valley and into Spring Ghaut. A number of large pyroclastic flows also occurred in Tuitt's Ghaut the furthest reaching Tuitt's village down Whites Bottom Ghaut. Associated ash clouds reached approximately 20,000 ft.

On 26th November a pyroclastic flow occurred in the Tar River Valley stopping just short of the sea. This event was formed from a part of the old, pre-2009 dome. A few small pyroclastic flows were observed in the head of Tyers Ghaut on the 26th November.

Owing to technical problems with equipment there were no gas measurements made this week.

Ash fall occurred in Old Towne and parts of Olveston on 26th November.

The Hazard Level is 3. There is no access to Zone C.

http://www.mvo.ms/
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3246 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 28, 2009 9:36 pm

Our tent has a new home,Talking Tropics forum.I think is the best move because,first,where it was,almost nobody went to post only a handfull of members.Second,since the Caribbean and Centralamerica are in the tropics and this forum is about the tropics,its the logical place to be and third,more members can come and post about the tropical weather events in the islands and in Centralamerica.Here is our tent thread with a new title and a new home my friends so post away. :)

For those who dont know this,there are plenty of Web Cams from different parts of the Caribbean posted at the first post of thread.Like this one from ST Maarten.

Image
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3247 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 29, 2009 6:22 am

Good morning to all the Caribbean and Centralamerican friends.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN OLD
BAND OF MOISTURE BASICALLY TRAPPED ACROSS THE FA...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF EAST NORTHEAST TRADES AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED DAY LOCALLY...WITH VARYING AMOUNTS
OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD
TEND TO LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS...SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN
A FEW LOCATIONS.

AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
HISPANIOLA EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST EARLY TODAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE BOUNDARY REMNANTS
LINGERING AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DELAYED
FROM EARLIER FORECAST TIMING...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A GOOD CHUNK
OF MOISTURE WILL "BREAK" OFF FROM THE OLD BOUNDARY AND MOVE INTO
AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY SO ON
MONDAY...WITH THIS MOISTURE THEN LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND PROBABLY TUESDAY AS WELL. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
TIST...TJSJ AND TJBQ THROUGH 29/13Z IN A PASSING SHRA. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. AF 29/16Z...SHRA
AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR OF PR WILL RESULT IN
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS TO TJPS AND TJMZ BETWEEN 29/18-29/22Z...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF TAF SITES. WITH LLVL
WINDS BECOMING MORE NERLY TODAY...VA FROM MONTSERRAT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THIS MORNING AND THEN LINGER
THROUGH MONDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY...WHILE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASINGLY ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
(AMZ710) TODAY AND A BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME SECTIONS OF THIS SAME MARINE ZONE LATE TONIGHT.

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Re: Tropical Weather tent thread for Caribbean - Centralamerica

#3248 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 29, 2009 10:18 am

Attention to those who are going to venture to the seas this afternoon in the islands of Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1055 AM AST SUN NOV 29 2009

...HAZARDOUS SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO INVADE THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. WAVEHEIGHT SHOULD REACH AROUND 7 FEET AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH TUESDAY.

AMZ710-292300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SC.Y.0049.091130T0100Z-091201T1600Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
1055 AM AST SUN NOV 29 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
AST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3249 Postby msbee » Sun Nov 29, 2009 11:29 am

We're supposed to be getting some of those swells today also



Weather Forecast for the SSS Islands valid until Monday midday 12:00 hours November 30, 2009.
Issued: Sunday, November 29, 2009 11:00 A.S.T. (15:00 UTC.)

...A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO UPCOMING NORTHEASTERLY... SWELLS
Weather:
Today: Partly cloudy with a chance of a few local showers.
Tonight through Monday midday: Variably cloudy with a couple of some passing showers.

Forecast high will be 29 °C, 84 °F. and low about 24 °C, 75 °F.
Sunrise will occur at 6:26 A.M. and Sunset at 5:35 P.M.

Winds:
Today: Easterly, 5 to 10 miles per hour.
Tonight through Monday midday: Northeast, 8 to 12 miles per hour with occasional higher gusts.

Synopsis: Surface analysis are projecting a weak frontal system over Hispaniola this morning moving southeast and becoming later today stationary. This system will enhance at time more cloud formation with some shower activity across the Northeast Caribbean region. Also Northeasterly swells will start to influence the sea conditions across the local waters during this forecast period. Therefore a precautionary statement has been issued because of building swells that are projecting to cause deteriorating of sea conditions as time continue to progress.

Sea Conditions: Moderate with waves between 3 and 5 feet. Gradually seas building in Northeasterly swells with the highest wave action will be along the Northern shorelines.


Tropical weather: None.

Special Features: There are continuous emissions of gas and ash at the Soufriere Hills Volcano in Montserrat. The plume of ash extends Northwest to west from the summit, but with the current and fore casted air flow the plume of ash will stay to the South of the local area.
Outlook until Tuesday midday: Partly cloudy with some isolated showers and long periods Northeasterly swells.

Forecaster: Thomas

The next weather forecast will be issued on Sunday at 17:00 AST (21:00 UTC).
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Re: Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3250 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 29, 2009 1:24 pm

We can expect scattered showers thru the area for most of the week.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
OVER THE WEAK RIDGE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD AND AMPLIFY NORTHWARD AFTER THE SHORTWAVE WITH
PRETTY GOOD DRYING OF THE MID LAYERS ACROSS THE REGION AFTERWARDS.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...AS LOWER LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION... PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN A
PASSING SHRA OR TSRA ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 2918/2922Z. VA FROM
MONTSERRAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
TUESDAY...WHILE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME. THESE
SWELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASINGLY ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS (AMZ710) STARTING AT 9 PM THROUGH TUESDAY.
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Re: Eastern Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3251 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 29, 2009 5:46 pm

The Soufriere Volcano in the Island of Montserrat has continued to steam up ash to the atmosphere.Although is not a weather hazard in a direct way,indirectly it affects the islands depending on what direction the winds are blowing to get that hazy ash causing problems to people and to the airplanes.Here is a link to the information about the volcano,various pics of it and more.

http://www.mvo.ms/
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#3252 Postby Gustywind » Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:07 pm

Yellow alert has been requiered for Guadeloupe and the Northern Leewards given Meteo-France Guadeloupe, for an unsual direction of the swell N to NW with waves up to 1 to 2 meters. Let's wait and see what could happen, hope nothing...
Gustywind :)
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_in.pdf
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#3253 Postby Gustywind » Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:10 pm

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Re: Eastern Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3254 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 29, 2009 8:15 pm

What will be left of the Cold Front that is north of the islands will move thru during the next couple of days bringing scattered showers so the unbrella on hand folks. :)

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
820 PM AST SUN NOV 29 2009

.UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO ALONG A LINE THAT EXTENDED FROM THE MONA PASSAGE EAST
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH OF FAJARDO. FORECAST TO BE UPDATED TO
INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED BOOMERS ALONG
THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO.

.DISCUSSION...SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD STIR THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE
NORTHEAST WILL ADVECT PARCELS OF MOISTURE FROM THE DECAYING FRONT
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF
CLOUDINESS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. GFS MODEL BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON....BUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD FOCUS THESE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST SOUTHWEST
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS TO BE EXPECTED.
AT LEAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN PLENTIFUL UNDER MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
LOCAL TAF SITES...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN TSRA
ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 3018/3022Z. VA FROM MONTSERRAT EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES.
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Re: Eastern Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3255 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 30, 2009 6:21 am

Good morning to all on the last day of the 2009 hurricane season.Thankfully it was a relativly tranquil one for the Caribbean but not so for El Salvador (Where our friend Macrocane is) and Nicaragua.

By the way,at this point Macrocane,how are things going at El Salvador in terms of the cleanup and if the death toll has stopped?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
SUPPORTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE EAST NORTHEAST AND CONTINUING TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE THIS AFTERNOON...TO COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO LOCALIZED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE MOVING EASTWARD. THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCAL
SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ...WHERE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FROM 18Z TO 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS AND NORTHEAST WIND
GENERATED WAVES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAINLY
ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
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#3256 Postby Gustywind » Mon Nov 30, 2009 1:28 pm

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 301515
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1115 AM AST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST WHILE DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW TO MID
LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND THEN
MOVE TOWARDS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WHILE DISSIPATES DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF THE
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN
EFFECTS WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A
FEW SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THAT A RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST
LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST LOCAL SITES
DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS AND UNTIL 30/1800Z.
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AFTER 30/1800Z ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJBQ...WHERE SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LAST UNTIL AT LEAST 30/2100Z.

&&
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Re: Eastern Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3257 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 30, 2009 2:12 pm

It looks like a good week weatherwise for the Caribbean with only a few scattered showers.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE FAN FARE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR
MOVED IN BEHIND THE WAVE. I WILL HOWEVER LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AND AMPLIFYING NORTH-NORTHEAST WEST OF THE REGION
WILL PLACE US ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE WILL BE RAIN FREE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS AND QUICK PASSING SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A PASSING SHRA ACROSS
THE VI...TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH 01/10Z. AFT 01/17Z...SHRA DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJMZ FROM 01/17-01/22Z AS WIND FLOW WILL BE VERY
LIGHT AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. ADDITIONALLY A VCSH OR
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR TJPS...TJSJ AND TJBQ. WIND EXPECTED TO
STEER VA SOUTH OF ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING DUE
TO HAZARDS SEAS CAUSED BY SEAS OF 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SCA SHOULD BE DROPPED TOMORROW BUT WILL LIKE BE
REQUIRED AGAIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHEN
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

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Re: Eastern Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3258 Postby Macrocane » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:43 pm

It's cold fronts season in centralamerica right now but when the season ends and the first tropical waves approach the area I can post some observations too, but now I will be posting on the Winter Weather Forum.
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Re: Eastern Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3259 Postby HUC » Tue Dec 01, 2009 5:48 am

Hello,Luis,good idea.Don't you think that the weeb cams should also be posted on this thread also?
Hi,gusty,i come back from France...what new??
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Re: Eastern Caribbean - Centralamerica - Tropical Weather thread

#3260 Postby HUC » Tue Dec 01, 2009 5:50 am

Exuse me ,Luis.I just see the cams... :oops:
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