Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[gofrogs]

so what exactly is the nam pointing to

[snow and ice]

so what exactly is the nam pointing to

The 18z NAM is showing a widespread snow event for the entire state, with the exception of the Austin area. It looks like an omega block will protect them from the brunt of the storm.

[Portastorm]

so what exactly is the nam pointing to

The 18z run is suggesting a brief period of sleet or snow for the Dallas at about 72 hours out.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_072l.gif

[Portastorm]

so what exactly is the nam pointing to

The 18z NAM is showing a widespread snow event for the entire state, with the exception of the Austin area. It looks like an omega block will protect them from the brunt of the storm.

Haaa! There you go again snow and ice. I think not! This year, I get to the kick the football. There undoubtedly will be at least one event that Portastorm will be able to enjoy.

[snow and ice]

so what exactly is the nam pointing to

The 18z NAM is showing a widespread snow event for the entire state, with the exception of the Austin area. It looks like an omega block will protect them from the brunt of the storm.

Haaa! There you go again snow and ice. I think not! This year, I get to the kick the football. There undoubtedly will be at least one event that Portastorm will be able to enjoy.

I agree with what several others have allude to above in that what is going to happen after the upper level feature passes through. It looks to me like that it will signal a major pattern change to much colder and wintry weather for the southern plains and Texas, possibly similar to what we saw in 1983. It remains to be seen what actually happens, but all the modeling is pointing in that direction in some form or fashion.

12Z Ensembles:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSH ... /f252.html

[gofrogs]

with this tuesday/ wendsday storm idk what to believe the dfw nws seems to be mentioning precip it seems every discussion they issue is more and more trended to wintry weather.

[Ntxw]

That's how it usually is, all we can do is wait and see. Don't believe anything till you see it for yourself Take a look at what 18z gfs has lol for the ULL

[MGC]

Never know what those pesky ULL will deliver this time of the year. I'm sure ya'll remember early December last year. I believe the Houston area got some of the white stuff.....it will all depent on the track of the ULL which currenly seems cut off. If the ULL tracks over central Tx than a few flakes are possible....MGC

[Ntxw]

12z Euro is a little further south with this low also.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff Lindner/HCFCD this afternoon. Thought I would share his thoughts in this Topics as it has some interesting thoughts RE upcoming events. Remember he is based out of Harris County...

Strong cold front will bring a taste of winter to Texas Monday through Wednesday.

Strong polar front currently extends from S of Dallas to NW of Del Rio and is moving SE at 10-15mph. Temperatures ahead of the front are in the mid to upper 70's while temperatures fall into the 40's/50's behind the front with gusty NW winds. Within the last few hours showers have begun to develop along the boundary from NW of Austin to SE of Waco and this trend should continue with increasing showers and widespread rains developing as the boundary moves into the area overnight. Front should clear the coast by Monday daybreak with cold air filtering into the region during the day...highs will be after midnight tonight with a steady temperature fall during the day on Monday with locations N of I-10 likely falling into the 40's.

Widespread rains will continue after the frontal passage as intense upper level storm system noted in WV images over NW Mexico pumps a strong sub-tropical moisture stream over the cold surface dome. Widespread overrunning rains...mainly light...will continue into Monday night...although 12Z GFS suggests a brief dry period Monday afternoon into early Tuesday before main lift with the upper storm arrives...the model may be on the correct track and rains may end N to S Monday and then return early Tuesday from SW to NE.

Late Monday night into Tuesday the powerful upper low begins to eject across NW TX while surface low pressure develops in the NW Gulf on the polar boundary. Strong dynamics come to bear with decent lift as the cold upper low moves across...to our NW. Will side with the warmer profiles...which are still cold...but will keep everything liquid. Marginal SN (snow) profiles do appear out west (W of I-35) Tuesday night where RA/SN mix or changeover to all SN will be possible over the Hill Country (NW of all I-35 metro areas). Profiles remain well above freezing in all our areas even as the upper low approaches early Wednesday morning. Additionally, moisture will focus near the coast and offshore with the deepening surface low. See no reason at this time for any consideration of P-type issues for our area.

While the forecast will require high rain chances...much may fall as light rain/drizzle/showers for the next 72 hours with the heavier rains offshore. A widespread .5-1.5 inches appears possible through Wednesday PM with amounts of 2-3 inches near the coast and offshore.

Other concern is developing strong NE surface flow over the NW Gulf post front. Sustained winds of 20-30mph with gusts of 40mph or better will be possible late Monday-early Wednesday. Trajectory of low level flow suggest a favorable set up for tidal rises near the coast. Could see some issues by late Tuesday although not fully convinced the low level component backs enough to cause serious issues...as flow may stay more NNE...will have to watch closely Monday and a coastal flood advisory may be needed.

Other big shocker will be cold temperatures compared to recent weekend weather. Will go with the colder guidance and show little to no temperature change late Mon-midday Wed as low level cold air advection, rains, and evaporative cooling keeps highs/lows within about 5 degrees of each other. Temps. will likely remain in the 40's on Tuesday and only break the low 50's Wednesday.

Upper storm system exits E late Wednesday and clear skies/light winds suggest lows will fall into the mid to upper 30's. Highs will rebound on Thursday into the mid 50's even under full sun. Next system approaches toward the weekend with increasing clouds and cool temperatures lingering. Models remain at odds as to how much cold air is dumped out of the frigid tundra areas of NW Canada and this could result in a much colder forecast into next weekend and beyond. Active sub-tropical jet will remain in place with several storms lined up to affect the southern US. Pattern is highly favorable for multiple cloudy/rainy/cold systems into mid December.

[gofrogs]

Man the 18z gfs was awful for the dfw area even in the long term it shows warming but i dont think that is truly going to happen.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so we warm up over the weekend and then the bottom drops out?!?!?! I know not to trust these long range forecasts, but what the heck is going on?

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... ast:tenday

[jinftl]

The 'bottom' actually falls out for you in the next 48-96 hours according to the msn forecast...highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s wednesday through thursday of this week....i am jealous (although not sure the nws is quite as cold). The highs in the 60s and lows in the 20s by next week are tame (and slightly questionable) in comparison.

As an outsider fyi...this same msn forecast is showing a high of 62 deg in Miami on Friday...the NWS is calling for a high of 77 deg.

Ok so we warm up over the weekend and then the bottom drops out?!?!?! I know not to trust these long range forecasts, but what the heck is going on?

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... ast:tenday

[iorange55]

Looks like the NAM 00z is agreeing with the 18z run. looks like it could end as a heavy snow for north texas. I doubt it though since none of the NWS discussions even really mention it as a possibility.

[HockeyTx82]

The 'bottom' actually falls out for you in the next 48-96 hours according to the msn forecast...highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s wednesday through thursday of this week....i am jealous (although not sure the nws is quite as cold). The highs in the 60s and lows in the 20s by next week are tame (and slightly questionable) in comparison.

As an outsider fyi...this same msn forecast is showing a high of 62 deg in Miami on Friday...the NWS is calling for a high of 77 deg.

Ok so we warm up over the weekend and then the bottom drops out?!?!?! I know not to trust these long range forecasts, but what the heck is going on?

http://weather.msn.com/tenday.aspx?weal ... ast:tenday

Stupid thing already changed after I posted the link. It had us looking at a high of 33 next Tuesday and a low of like 22.

[HockeyTx82]

Looks like the NAM 00z is agreeing with the 18z run. looks like it could end as a heavy snow for north texas. I doubt it though since none of the NWS discussions even really mention it as a possibility.

Really, what night is this looking to happen?

[Ntxw]

The NWS usually doesn't jump into the bandwagon until right before the event, very conservative especially in Texas as many of the times in the past predictions for snow and ice never come into fruition and everyone says they cried wolf. Though the NAM has consisently put Dallas area in line for some snow/sleet several runs back to back

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the NAM 00z is agreeing with the 18z run. looks like it could end as a heavy snow for north texas. I doubt it though since none of the NWS discussions even really mention it as a possibility.

Yeah, getting "heavy snow" will be something I wouldn't count on until it is actually happening. It is always possible though; December 9-11th of last year is a good example. The ULL along the gulf coast was able to produce up to 8" of snow in parts of Louisiana, which was completely unexpected. The forecast for many of the snow-receiving cities during that event had called for just plain, cold rain in the days leading up to it. So there is always hope that a similar situation could play out this time. We will just have to wait and see. I wouldn't set my hopes too terribly high though (a.k.a. significant accumulations), or you may be disappointed.

[HockeyTx82]

The NWS usually doesn't jump into the bandwagon until right before the event, very conservative especially in Texas as many of the times in the past predictions for snow and ice never come into fruition and everyone says they cried wolf. Though the NAM has consisently put Dallas area in line for some snow several runs back to back

Funny thing about that. I remember this last winter we were under an Ice Storm Warning (like for 3 inches of ice) and UNT shutdown becuase of it. Nothing happened, I had a nice cold day off with nothing. Becuase of that when it did ice and snow after that, like a week or so later, I had to go into work. Crazy stuff.

[iorange55]

Looks like the NAM 00z is agreeing with the 18z run. looks like it could end as a heavy snow for north texas. I doubt it though since none of the NWS discussions even really mention it as a possibility.

Yeah, getting "heavy snow" will be something I wouldn't count on until it is actually happening. It is always possible though; December 9-11th of last year is a good example. The ULL along the gulf coast was able to produce up to 8" of snow in parts of Louisiana, which was completely unexpected. The forecast for many of the snow-receiving cities during that event had called for just plain, cold rain in the days leading up to it. So there is always hope that a similar situation could play out this time. We will just have to wait and see. I wouldn't set my hopes too terribly high though (a.k.a. significant accumulations), or you may be disappointed.

Yeah I'm not getting my hopes up especially not with ULL events because they seem so unpredictable.


and Hockeytx82 it'd be Wednesday, I believe. That's what the NAM is showing as of now.