Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[CaptinCrunch]

Not going to happen for DFW, the NW counties and along the red river maybe, SW counties better shot at wet snow but ground temp will keep anything from sticking except on cars and bushes

[srainhoutx]

HGX at least mentioned the GFS run that has raised eyebrows. Not buying it though...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS WELL OFF THE UPPER TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. COLD ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF SE TX. THIS HAS HELD TEMPS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. STRONG FLOW ALOFT HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT SOME OFF/ON LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA. 12Z UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
AND NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEX. THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD MOVE
TOWARDS THE BIG BEND/TRANS-PECOS BY TUE EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TUE
MORNING. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY
CAUSE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
PROVIDE THE DETAILS ON HIGHER TIDE LEVELS ESPECIALLY FOR BOLIVAR
PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE
ON TRACK TO CROSS TX TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE BEST QG
LIFT FROM 00Z TO 06Z WED. POPS AT 90 PERCENT LOOK GOOD GIVEN THIS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
PAS THROUGH BY 18Z WED AND LIKELY BRING AN END TO ANY PRECIP.
THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z THU.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY MODEST WITH MOST AREAS BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND HALF INCH DURING THE DAY AND THEN MAYBE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OFF THE COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. ISO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST AS WELL.

A DRY FORECAST WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL DIFFERENCES PRESENT THEMSELVES FAIRLY QUICKLY ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS A FAR DEPARTURE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS AGREE WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH A LARGE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST STRETCHING INTO THE
PLAINS. THE GFS NOW HAS A POTENT SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS THE S
ROCKIES INTO TX FRI MORNING. SHOULD THIS REALLY HAPPEN WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION IN PLACE...MOISTURE...FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AND
STRONG QG LIFT...SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SINCE THIS IS SUCH AN
OUTLIER AND HAS NO OTHER REAL SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS A
DRY FORECAST WITH MAYBE SOME PRECIP OFF THE COAST.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE SO TEMPS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN TO FALL MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z GFS MOS AND 12Z
ECMWF. THE ECMWF DOES BRING RETURN FLOW BACK LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER AND NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE FORECAST WILL HOLD WITH
20 POPS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

[Weatherdude20]

Any schools on the west side of North Central Texas that could possibly close form this on Wednesday?

[Portastorm]

Any schools on the west side of North Central Texas that could possibly close form this on Wednesday?

I have it from a good source that the schools in North Richland Hills WILL BE OPEN on Wednesday!

[wxgirl69]

I think 18z is at 4pm central, and 0z at 10pm.

thank you

[joshskeety]

Well guys.. 18z GFS out to 30h looks IDENTICAL to the NAM run UNTIL you get to 36h and 42h..

The GFS is more aggressive with the wrap around moisture, however, NWS continues to go on about it being too warm at the sfc to support snow even though the 850mb shows its well below 0c during the daylight hours of Wednesday.. The Euro shows that isn't the case tho..

I can't believe how much difference there is on the models <48h out.. I guess that is why they say that other than Hurricane's ULL cut off lows are the hardest storms to predict...

[HockeyTx82]

Forth Worth NWS just updated the forecast. They dropped them temp a few degrees for the low on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning to 35 for here in Denton with 100% chance of rain. Everyone crank down your A/C and open your freezers. Lets get that temp to drop a few degrees more!!!!!!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-97.1309

[Weatherdude20]

Hahaha ok? Thats not important...

Gboudx and Hockeytx, I noticed as well how the Bulk of the Signifigant Snow/Ice storm breaks apart and goes North Of the Metro... That could be NWS' way of coping out of the snow event for DFW...

However I think that the same moisture causing the wintry precip in West Texas yesterday,today,and tomorrow will be moving itno DFW locations Tuesday and Tuesday night, the intenisty and Frozen precip should decrease to an extent... The possibily for a changeover from cold rain to light wet snow is there Wednesday morning for DFW but WILL NOT STICK and temps should be 35 and above... I WILL bet on A Mix of Light Snow and Cold Rain for locations WEST OF A LINE FROM- Fort Worth/Gainseville/Burleson line for a brief period from 5:30-7:00 Wednesday morning...

BUT- you will not see ANY accumulations EAST of Fort Worth

[Weatherdude20]

Forth Worth NWS just updated the forecast. They dropped them temp a few degrees for the low on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning to 35 for here in Denton with 100% chance of rain. Everyone crank down your A/C and open your freezers. Lets get that temp to drop a few degrees more!!!!!!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-97.1309

Correct! Im happy for Denton!

And yes they did tweak the temperatures downward quite a bit...
Ecspescialy West and North of the DFW metro...

This CHANGES things alot!! Now if you look at the forcast grpahics tab for DFW WS...

Everwhere Northwest and WEST of Weatherford Texas IS SUB- OR AT 32 on Wednesday morning!!

Get ready people its gonna get intresting!!!!!!!

[shibumi]

The possibily for a changeover from cold rain to light wet snow is there Wednesday morning for DFW but WILL NOT STICK and temps should be 35 and above...

perhaps, but the ULL that brought snow to the Florida parishes of Louisiana last year was the same way...the entirety of the snow event at my house was above freezing at the surface...but I still got 4.5 inches of accumulation....local roads were OK...some slush on the driveway....

That is the beauty of ULLs....with enough dynamics, it snows right through the warmer surface....

[wxman22]

New 18z GFS shows the same snow event....

[double D]

srainhoutx, Most NWS offices aren't buying the 12z GFS yet, and I say I can't blame them since it's only one run and is the outlier.

At least the models are showing a pretty good cool down for this weekend, all we need now is for the other models to show moisture and give us a little white suprise for this weekend.

[Weatherdude20]

The possibily for a changeover from cold rain to light wet snow is there Wednesday morning for DFW but WILL NOT STICK and temps should be 35 and above...

perhaps, but the ULL that brought snow to the Florida parishes of Louisiana last year was the same way...the entirety of the snow event at my house was above freezing at the surface...but I still got 4.5 inches of accumulation....local roads were OK...some slush on the driveway....

That is the beauty of ULLs....with enough dynamics, it snows right through the warmer surface....

Oh... Really? That sounds fun! I don't see that happening this time around for the Metro but maybe Fort Worth on the western side? Ahhhh who knows? What do you think?

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx, Most NWS offices aren't buying the 12z GFS yet, and I say I can't blame them since it's only one run and is the outlier.

At least the models are showing a pretty good cool down for this weekend, all we need now is for the other models to show moisture and give us a little white suprise for this weekend.

No doubt about the cool down. Remember I have stated several times that I believe we are stepping down a to colder pattern. This is not an 83 or 89 event at this time IMHO. We lack snow cover to the N. As time goes on though, the trend is getting better and better for those that like colder and wintry weather in TX.

[Weatherdude20]

OK- I just got done watching CBS News 11 and NBC News 5 in Dallas/Fort Worth area Tv.

NBC's Weather Report calls for : Tuesday Highs in mid 40's lows in mid 30's 100% chance of rain tomorrow... She kept stressing starting at about 3:00am The changeover will start in the western counties but the most Dfw will see is some mixed in flurries on Wednesday morning...

The one that I like was CBS News channel 11...

CBS DFW Weather Report calls for as of 4:19 : Tuesday Highs in the Mid 40's lows it depends on where you live... Dallas-39 Fort Worth-37 Denton-35 Weatherford-35 Decatur-34 Jacksboro-32 Graham-31... He said- (Larry Mowory) Cold Rain all day and night Tuesday and the temp's droping And he actually said SNOW will transition through the DFW Metro after 5:00am behind the low pressure system... But he also did say Dallas will only see flurries...
So Fort Worth N/W could see heavy snow around 5:00 or 6:00 but it will be brief and won't amount to much he said....

[snow and ice]

AFD out of Shreveport this afternoon. They seem concerned for a changeover to snow in the Red River Valley area of Texas. This supported by the GFS and NAM. Also, mentions the possibility for light snow on Friday.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
324 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE CHANGING SEASON WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE APPARENT NEXT
FEW DAYS. DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO WILL MOVE ENE TO CENTRAL
TX BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ON COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH TX COAST. THIS LOW...COMBINED
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW...PROVIDE A GREAT
OVERRUNNING SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN QUICKLY BUILDING TO THE NE
ACROSS AREA DURG AFTN ON TUESDAY. MOST CONCENTRATED RAIN TO OCCUR
JUST NORTH OF SFC LOW TRACK...WHICH MAY BISECT AREA WITH ENOUGH
NORTHWARD CURVATURE OF LOW TRACK IN DIFFUENT UPPER STEERING FLOW
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. DESPITE BEING A COLD STRATIFORM RAIN WITH
STRONG ELEVATED INVERSION... SOME MINOR FLOODING PSBL ALONG AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN...WITH INDICATED PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES. OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR RAIN TO SNOW CHANGOVER AROUND RED
RIVER VALLEY. UNLESS SFC LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST THAN
EXPECTED...BELIEVE SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE 40 DEGREES UNTIL
MOISTURE MOVES OUT. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS OF GFS AND NAM VERY
SUPPORTED OF A PERIOD OF TRANSITORY SNOWFALL...ECMWF IS NOT ON
BOARD WITH THIS.
POSTFRONTAL TEMPS ON WED WILL ACTUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY. WITH
THIS DEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE...GFS NOW ADVERTISING AN UPPER TROF
WITH LIGHT PCPN MOVG ACROSS AREA FRIDAY. A POTENTIAL FCST WITH
LIGHT SNOW COULD BE IN MAKING FOR FRIDAY...BUT WAIT FOR MORE MODEL
CONCENSUS. THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT REINFORCEMENT IN
FORM OF 1035 MB HIGH SPILLING INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON WED. EVEN
MORE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS FOR LATER IN WEEKEND...WITH YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SEEMINGLY DROPPING IN TO PAY VISIT AROUND MONDAY./VII/

[srainhoutx]

EWX thinking that the late week worth a Bears Watching...

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS DECENT
MODEL CONSENSUS AS FAR AS BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A MAJOR DIVERGENCE ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE FOR US. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SNOW TO THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THE GFS PROVIDING A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FROM ITS PREVIOUS
RUN...HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH INDICATES THE SAME
BASIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT IS NOT AS EXTREME WITH PRECIP CHANCES
NOR TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE GFS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
PROBABLE...THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEARS WATCHING.

[Portastorm]

EWX thinking that the late week worth a Bears Watching...

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST IS LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE IS DECENT
MODEL CONSENSUS AS FAR AS BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A MAJOR DIVERGENCE ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW
POTENT THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE FOR US. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS IS THE
MOST BULLISH AND BRINGS SNOW TO THE ENTIRE CWA ON FRIDAY AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
THE GFS PROVIDING A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION FROM ITS PREVIOUS
RUN...HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE ECMWF WHICH INDICATES THE SAME
BASIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT IS NOT AS EXTREME WITH PRECIP CHANCES
NOR TEMPERATURES. SINCE THE GFS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
PROBABLE...THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK BEARS WATCHING.

Haaa! Isn't that great? The famous "Bears Watch" saying makes its appearance.

I'd love to believe it ... you know I would! But I'm still very skeptical of it happening. If the 0z GFS shows the same thing and we see more hints from the Euro, then I'll announce that I'm lacing up the kicking shoes and giving Lucy a phone call!

[vbhoutex]

You won't have to call her if I continue to see what the models are showing right now!! I will bring her by your house, get your kick off, and then we will head back to Houston for our kick!!!

[iorange55]

Well boo to this winter event good thing this is just the start of things to come. That El Paso video makes me drool.