Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

snow and ice · #421 Postby **snow and ice** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 6:58 pm

The Climate Prediction Center is thinking a long the same lines that I am for next week. Cross Polar flow that comes in and overwhelms the nation from coast to coast. That is something that one rarely sees.

6-10 day outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

8-14 day outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /index.php

weatherguy425 · #422 Postby **weatherguy425** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 7:04 pm

Maybe it's because all the weather offices are busy with short term weather challenges, but not many of our local offices are not specifically mentioning the cold weather for next week?

joshskeety · #423 Postby **joshskeety** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 7:12 pm

Most of Texas is looking towards this event at the moment.. SJT mentions the next event as a possible Thursday night/Friday morning 1-3 inches for the Big Country, but like most they said the NCEP at the moment is trending to the drier ECMWF at the moment.. 2 models show no event, one does.. The possibility is there, but its low at the moment...

weatherguy425 · #424 Postby **weatherguy425** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 7:16 pm

I think you may have misunderstood me, I'm talking about the potential "arctic air intrusion" towards the beginning of NEXT week... :lol:

joshskeety · #425 Postby **joshskeety** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 7:19 pm

Btw.. I wont post Joe Bastardi's blog here as its a pay service.. But he is betting that Houston sees snow.. He thinks the GFS is picking up on it and it could be Houston's earliest snow.. Plus, if Houston sees snow, it would piss off the crazy wacko Environmentalists in Denmark next week.. LOVE IT!

GO COWBOYS!

#426 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:42 pm

Amarillo beefing things up abit in Aviation Update...

FXUS64 KAMA 010005 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
605 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.AVIATION...
RAPID CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT
THOUGH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERHEAD. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY ONCE THE LOWER LEVELS
SATURATE. AIR TRAFFIC AT KAMA IS LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS SNOWFALL INTENSITIES INCREASE WITH TIME.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN ONE TO THREE INCHES.

ALSO...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING WITH SNOW DURING
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...IMPACTS SHOULD NOT DIFFER MUCH.

#427 Postby **HockeyTx82** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:53 pm

snow and ice wrote:The Climate Prediction Center is thinking a long the same lines that I am for next week. Cross Polar flow that comes in and overwhelms the nation from coast to coast. That is something that one rarely sees.

6-10 day outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

8-14 day outlook:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /index.php

So is that map showing colder temps with less precip? If so how cold are we talking?

#428 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:57 pm

Good view of the "players" via Water Vapor Imagery tonight...

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

joshskeety · #429 Postby **joshskeety** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:21 pm

Okay, its official.. Either I am losing my mind or the NAM has lost its mind.. Now somehow the 850 0 line at 36h has gone north of everyone.. In early morning, no doubt.. Then at 42h somehow mysteriously, its back..

I believe the NAM is going the way of the old NGM.. When will the NCEP have a weather model worth a crock..

Somewhere I feel there are some Penn State professor manipulating data to make the model warmer..

:grrr:

bahahaha

#430 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:25 pm

Somewhere I feel there are some Penn State professor manipulating data to make the model warmer..

bahahaha

goCoogs · #431 Postby **goCoogs** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:36 pm

Please let it snow in Houston. Are the forecast discussions issued at set intervals?

#432 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:54 pm

So far the NAM is biting on the shortwave...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

joshskeety · #433 Postby **joshskeety** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:56 pm

The NAM has the 2nd storm, however, QPF's are not very impressive and the 850 0c line is too far north for anyone south of a line from Uvalde/Austin/Spring Tx line.. HOWEVER.. Cant see past 84h so not sure what happens.. Energy is still over far west Texas at this time.. Although gives my area 1-3 inches of snow...

#434 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:59 pm

srainhoutx wrote:So far the NAM is biting on the shortwave...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

At a minimum this definitely bears watching, but without the snow cover to our North I am thinking it could be my favorite weather-cold and rainy. This is probably a tease for later. :spam:

Weatherdude20 · #435 Postby **Weatherdude20** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:09 pm

ok gang this is very imortant on our decision making for dfw precip... Does anyone have models stalling the low pressure sytem in west texas right now? even just a brief stall out? PLEASE Respond... we need input from other weather minds!!!

joshskeety · #436 Postby **joshskeety** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:14 pm

Weatherdude20 wrote:ok gang this is very imortant on our decision making for dfw precip... Does anyone have models stalling the low pressure sytem in west texas right now? even just a brief stall out? PLEASE Respond... we need input from other weather minds!!!

No, but I can give you a model stating at least 2 degrees too warm, will change dramtically from one run to another, and is about as consistant as the San Fransisco 49ers and verifies like the Cleveland Browns..

its called the NAM... lol

Weatherdude20 · #437 Postby **Weatherdude20** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:22 pm

oh,ha I know that but we need to know if anyone has a source projecting the low to stall?

joshskeety · #438 Postby **joshskeety** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:26 pm

Weatherdude20 wrote:oh,ha I know that but we need to know if anyone has a source projecting the low to stall?

I have looked at every model including the JPA, UKMET, EURO, GGEM, NAM, GFS, and NOGAPS.. None have the low stalling.. in fact, all have been consistant in speeding it up the past couple of runs..

Why?

Weatherdude20 · #439 Postby **Weatherdude20** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:49 pm

Wow I just wrote a huge article to tell you why... and deleted it on accident... Oh well...

Ugh im pissed now... I'll tell yall later...

Well what i do know....

UPDATES :

EL PASO - 4 Inches of snow already fallen... With more snow/ice accumulations exected tonight and tomorrow.

Sierra Blanca Texas Intresting situation here as layers have fallen making a dangerous VERY dangerous problems for this local area.... 1.5 inches of Freezing Rain ans Sleet fell as of 8:00pm then on top of that as of 9:30 2 inches of Wet snow fell and accumulated on top creatin a 1.5 inch thick layer of ice under 2 inches of SLOOPY Wet snow...

joshskeety · #440 Postby **joshskeety** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 10:57 pm

hahaha.. Im actually from El Paso and have been to Sierra Blanca many times.. Nothing but a 50 year old hotel and a truck stop there.. Oh and the Border Patrol stop is right next to there..

I am surprised about Freezing rain though, have NEVER in my life seen freezing rain in that area of the country.. Usually its just rain or snow and usually if its 35 degrees and below its snow... Its 4000 feet in elevation so wedging is tough to do.. But what that does tell me is there is a very very shallow warm layer in the front of this storm.. Very interesting..

In no way did the models see that..

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