Severe Weather Threat for NE Gulf Tues/Wed.

[Dean4Storms]

If this materializes we could see worse Coastal Flooding in the Panhandle than what we saw from Ida according to Tally NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

...MAJOR WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE MID WEEK...WHICH MAY INCLUDE
SEVERE STORMS...INLAND FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN...COASTAL
FLOODING...AND GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE 18 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PLATEAU OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH A COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOWED
A SHORT WAVE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...AND PLENTY OF CS WAS STREAMING EASTWARD OVER OUR AREA
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PATTERN
BEFORE THE POTENTIAL ONSLAUGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...EXITING OUR EASTERN ZONES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOS
CONSENSUS IS ABOUT LIKE LAST NIGHT...SO WE EXPECT PATCHY FROST IN
THE NORMALLY COLDEST INLAND LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE CITIES. FAIR
AND MILD WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. ON MONDAY A COLD FRONT IS
SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST AS THE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT GETS PULLED APART OVER OUR AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO STALL IN THE GULF AND ACROSS CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY AS A
VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER TX
AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE TX COAST. THE WEATHER WILL
DETERIORATE LATE TUESDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES.


.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENT FOR OUR AREA. BOTH MODELS FORECAST A LARGE SWATH OF QPF
RANGING FROM 3 TO 9 INCHES (36-HOUR TOTAL FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING) ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS
THE SURFACE LOW WINDS UP TO ABOUT 998 MB OVER NORTHERN MS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT WILL START AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT TUESDAY
EVENING MAY BECOME A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...IF THE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS MAKES IT INLAND. THE
KINEMATICS DURING THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO BE AS FAVORABLE AS I
HAVE EVER SEEN...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING 60-80KT 0-6 KM VERTICAL
WINDS SHEAR AND UP TO 45 KT SHEAR FROM 0-1 KM. WHERE THE STORMS
REMAIN ELEVATED (WELL INLAND) THE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...BUT
HIGH WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST
IF THE STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY
THIS IS DEFINITE...BUT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SUCH GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IN TIME...IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO KEEP AN
EYE ON. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE AND INLAND FLOODING
THREAT...BOTH MODELS FORECAST GALE-STORM FORECAST ONSHORE FLOW
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND BEACH EROSION. IT COULD BE
WORSE THAN IDA.

THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THIS FORECAST TO CHANGE...BUT IF THE GFS
AND/OR ECMWF VERIFY...A MULTI-FACETED WEATHER EVENT COULD OCCUR
THAT COULD IMPACT MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH HAZARDOUS
WEATHER. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS CLOSELY.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

[RNGR]

Looks like this could be a big storm for the southeast. and im surprised more people arent discussing this.

[Sihara]

Looks like this could be a big storm for the southeast. and im surprised more people arent discussing this.

I'm surprised by that too. Even down here in St. Pete, local NWS in Ruskin is talking about the possibility of severe wx, including damaging winds. And a paper on the NWS site talks about the influence of El Nino causing storms this winter.

But as far as Tues/Wed, the panhandle will get the worst of it, with any severe stuff here expected on Wed into Thursday.

[psyclone]

i suspect the best severe potential for central florida will be after nightfall on wednesday. the threat of a night severe outbreak including tornadoes is always scary, especially when one considers our dense population, and large numbers of seasonal residents living in mobile home parks or campgrounds who are clueless about the weather. most folks seem to think that once hurricane season is over we're safe but you can't think that way in an el nino year. i am defintely concerned about this situation.

[jinftl]

While most folks may not have weather radios....or actually tune into them....almost everyone has cell phones these days and there are local tv news stations all over the u.s. that provide free text alerts (or a nominal charge like $3 a month for accuweather alerts on my provider, verizon) when your zip code is put under a severe weather watch or warning. I highly recommend this cheap and easy way to stay on top of weather alerts 365 days a year. Such a text message could very well save lives, esp. when nightime severe outbreaks occur.

Did a quick google search...folks in the central FL can sign up for free severe weather text alerts by county at wftv's website

Available WFTV Text Alerts:

SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS
Northern Brevard County, FL
Southern Brevard County, FL
Flagler, FL
Northern Lake County, FL
Southern Lake County, FL
Marion, FL
Orange, FL
Osceola, FL
Polk, FL
Seminole, FL
Sumter, FL
Coastal Volusia County, FL
Inland Volusia County, FL
Alachua, FL
Citrus, FL
Okeechobee, FL
Pasco, FL
Indian River, FL
Hardee, FL
Highlands, FL
Hernando, FL
Putnam, FL

http://cf.localwireless.com/wireless/si ... lert1_main

i suspect the best severe potential for central florida will be after nightfall on wednesday. the threat of a night severe outbreak including tornadoes is always scary, especially when one considers our dense population, and large numbers of seasonal residents living in mobile home parks or campgrounds who are clueless about the weather. most folks seem to think that once hurricane season is over we're safe but you can't think that way in an el nino year. i am defintely concerned about this situation.

[RNGR]

Seems like the GFS shows a stronger system with every run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_072l.gif

00 UTC run for thursday

[JonathanBelles]

I'm ready for something out of the ordinary.

[jinftl]

Thunderstorms in florida...not so out of the ordinary.

Latest NWS Tampa Bay Discussion...


THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A HAZARD WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE
A NOCTURNAL SQUALL LINE SCENARIO. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
LACKING FEATURE. HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF 50-70 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE PRESENCE OF LOW CAPE.
IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES...MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN
ABUNDANCE WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PRESENT AND PWAT VALUES OF 2 TO
2.25 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE STRONG
SURFACE FRONT AND ENERGY FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM AS IT KICKS NORTH.
HOWEVER IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAYBE LIMITED
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP DYNAMIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY.

I'm ready for something out of the ordinary.

[Sihara]

I'm ready for something out of the ordinary.

Me too, fact. I've been noticing over the past few days, the descriptions on noaa radio have been getting worse. Psyclone mentioned the possibility of a night outbreak. Those are definitely the scariest, and my radio will be in alarm mode if things continue to point to a severe strike.

Yesterday, the first hazards listed were coastal flooding and deadly lightning. In today's Discussion, they're now listing damaging winds and tornadoes first, the flooding & lightning second.

Yeah, most people only pay attention to weather during hurricane season, but we've had some lethal strikes off-season, especially in EN years. From http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/TopN ... nglish.pdf on 10/26/09:

"El Niño to Increase Possibility of Hazardous Weather in Florida this Winter
An active weather pattern is expected to setup over Florida this winter due to a strengthening El Niño weather pattern. El Niño refers to the warmer than normal tropical waters in the Pacific Ocean which shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall in the Pacific. These changes in turn alter the strength and position of the jet stream, as well as storm systems over the United States - with potentially significant impacts over Florida. According to Meteorologist-in-Charge Brian LaMarre, "the jet stream this winter is expected to impact Florida which will increase the potential for hazardous weather.

El Niño weather patterns have struck Florida many times in the past. Since 1892, the ten deadliest tornado days during the Florida dry season resulted in 119 deaths, which is 79% of tornado fatalities during the dry season. Of these ten events, six occurred across the Florida peninsula (south of 30 N), all of which were El Niño years. During the February 23, 1998 and February 2, 2007 Florida tornado outbreaks, 63 lives were lost, with 62 of the fatalities occurring within mobile homes, recreational vehicles or automobiles.

In addition to the increased severe weather risk, Florida citizens and visitors are exposed to considerable societal vulnerability, especially during El Niño years. According to the 2000 census, Florida had 847,141 mobile homes with more residents living in these homes than any other state. The majority of this vulnerable housing was built prior to the enhanced building codes which went into effect in 1995. El Niño tornado impacts in Florida typically occur during the November to April period, when housing occupancy rates are greatest. This peak in rates includes mobile home parks and campgrounds and is due to a peak in seasonal residents and tourists. Most El Niño tornadoes occur at night and result in reduced public awareness, as tornado watches and warnings are often issued after residents and visitors retire for the evening."

[Sihara]

Thunderstorms in florida...not so out of the ordinary.

Latest NWS Tampa Bay Discussion...


...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAYBE LIMITED
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP DYNAMIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY.

I think there's a lot of uncertainty with this. I saw that in the 3:10am Disc, which is more hopeful, but the Special Weather Statement at 5:00am this morning also said:

"AT THE CURRENT TIME SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS."

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS is the strongest of the models and is showing 60kt winds at 950mb level (1000 ft) with Gale Force Winds sustained over the Gulf.

Going to be a wild ride here along the NE Gulf.

[jinftl]

If I had to assess the trend of the NWS discussions late today out of florida....there is some backing off from the potential especially as you head south, and increased uncertainty of just how intense the squall line might or might not be as you head north across the peninsula. By no means does this mean this couldn't end up being a dangerous and violent event for someone.

South Florida was a bit too south from the get-go to really get in on this event, but NWS Miami has pulled back talk of potential severe weather even further this evening....from the latest discussion:

AS FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HAVE DOWNPLAYED IT TO A FEW STRONG OVER NORTH
SECTIONS AND HAVE AMENDED THE HWO ACCORDINGLY. THE DYNAMICS AND
LIFT WILL BE FURTHER NORTH THAT EARLIER DEPICTED ON THE MODELS.



Latest NWS Tampa Bay discussion also points north for the most action:

THE BEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD...
STARTING AROUND 7 PM FOR THE NATURE COAST AND MOVING RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE PLENTY OF SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...BUT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. STILL...CANT RULE
OUT A FEW STORMS WITH 50 TO 60 KNOT GUSTS AND EVEN A SLIGHT RISK
OF TORNADOES.



NWS Melbourne cites some uncertainty with recent model trends:

RECENT MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO OPEN CLOSED LOW AND LIFT FEATURE
NORTHWARD TOWARD OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD SLOW
CONVECTIVE LINE UPON APPROACH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...CAUSING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO LINGER ACROSS SE CWA THROUGH LATE WEEK. HAVE
NOT YET FULLY COMMITTED TO THIS RECENT CHANGE...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED
SMALL SHOWER PROBABILITY TO COUNTIES ADJACENT TO LAKE OKEE THU AND
THU NIGHT. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH NEXT FORECAST
CYCLE.

That said, they still are talking about some scary storm potential:

HELICITY PROFILE ALSO APPEARS FAVORABLE AT THIS POINT FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF LINE LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE
TO ASSESS AND UPDATE POSSIBLE SVR WX THREAT DETAILS AS EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER.

[baygirl_1]

The folks here are talking about it! In fact, one of the local yacht clubs sent an e-mail informing folks it could be as bad or worse than Ida a couple weeks ago. The Mobile NWS office is doing a good job of reporting the storm.
Here's the QPF map of the event: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif That's some pretty heavy precip!
And here's the info from the Forecast Discussion (http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1) about the storm:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
543 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF LAND
AREAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING...AND CLEARING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MID
EVENING BEFORE STALLING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE RESPITE FROM THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE WEATHER ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...IT WILL INDUCE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE BY
TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND SPREAD INLAND TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT...AIDING IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS. USING A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF...WHICH ONLY HAVE MINOR DIFFERENCES...PLACES A DEEPENING SUB
1000 MB LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND NEAR
THE SOUTHERN MS COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW TRACK IS
DISCONCERTING AS IT WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE RANGE OF HAZARDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
HEAVY RAIN... DYNAMICS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM BOTH IN
THE LOW AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A STRENGTHENING 60-70 KT
850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED AS A 100+ KT JETSTREAK ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SUCH FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A BAND OF
EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE...WITH THE BEST LOCATION CURRENTLY SHAPING UP TO BE ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE VERY HIGH QPF AND A WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY
WITH A BAND OF 5-8 INCHES VERY POSSIBLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH HEAVY RAIN...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS
AREA...CURRENTLY EXPECTING RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY VALUES STILL
APPEAR MARGINAL WHICH WILL PREVENT THE THREAT FROM BEING EVEN HIGHER.
HOWEVER...MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY REACHING
AS FAR NORTH AS ESCAMBIA AND COVINGTON COUNTIES. WIND SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS...THEN WE WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WINDS CLOSE TO 60 KT WILL BE PRESENT JUST
1000 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
COASTAL FLOODING AND WINDS... WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 TO
40 KNOTS OFFSHORE TOMORROW NIGHT. ALONG THE COAST...GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20-30 MPH FURTHER INLAND.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. WITH SUCH A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND TIDES CURRENTLY AT
THEIR HIGHEST RANGE IN THE SPRING TIDE CYCLE...COASTAL FLOODING WILL
BECOME A CONCERN STARTING TOMORROW EVENING. LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW
TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 3 TO 5 FEET...WHICH WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE COASTAL FLOODING LOCATIONS.
RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW QUICKLY PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAIN TO HAVE ENDED BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS
THROUGH THE DAY...SO WE WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY.

Could be a rough day tomorrow and into Wednesday.

[jinftl]

Yep, the north-central and northeastern gulf coast may get more out of this event than they did for the most part from Ida...just goes to show that a system doesn't have to have 'a name' to be considered as a serious threat. I know some folks on the board came down hard on the NHC as somehow diminishing Ida when they called for her to be extratropical at approach to the northeast gulf...but folks needed to understand then, and now, that extratropical in no way implies 'less serious'. Rather, it is a determination based on the storm's dynamics and inner structure.

Dr. Jeff Master's take on this week's event:

Major storm brewing for the Gulf Coast
There's a major extratropical storm brewing over the northern Gulf of Mexico that could be as damaging as Tropical Storm Ida was, for the Gulf Coast from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle. The storm is expected to hit Tuesday through Wednesday. A storm tide of 4 - 6 feet is forecast for the Florida Panhandle, 3 - 5 feet for the Alabama coast, and 3 - 4 feet for the New Orleans area. Consult the NOAA extratropical storm surge forecast page for forecasts of the storm surge from this event. I'll have a new post Tuesday and/or Wednesday to discuss this storm.

[Dean4Storms]

The big question is the amount of instability that gets onshore, if it climbs there will be plenty of vertical wind shear to produce rotating supercells and damaging straight line winds especially over the FL Panhandle. I know I'll be up late Tues. nite.

Also expecting 30-40mph winds along the coast with a real good possibility of some higher gusts especially in any heavy convection. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. Destin Beaches proper have been held up by lawsuits stopping any beach replenishing so expecting some Beach Front property to take a hit, in some places the ocean is only 30ft away on calm days. There could be some property damage with the tide heights in this one for sure!

[psyclone]

it does look like less of a severe threat now as compared to this time yesterday so that is certainly good news. hopefully this will just provide interesting weather for us. we do have a coastal flood watch as far south as hillsborough and pinellas county. a strong south wind and high astronomical tides should yield a decent water rise and those south winds are beach eaters on the west coast of florida so i do expect some beach erosion. hopefully we'll get a good, gusty but non-damaging squall line out of the deal. with a more westward low track, the panhandle should get more significant weather than peninsular florida and there could be quite a water rise in the big bend region.

[Ivanhater]

Close to 9 inches for Northwest Florida! We do not need anymore rain!

[dixiebreeze]

Sounds very much like the warnings of the National Weather Service before the No Name storm of '93. Here's what our forecast says today, and asks coastal residents to prepare any immediate evacuation notices:

Statement as of 2:27 PM EST on November 30, 2009


... Coastal Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday morning through
Thursday morning...

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a coastal Flood
Watch... which is in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday
morning.

An increasing southerly wind flow ahead of an intensifying low pressure
area over the western Gulf will help to build seas over the adjacent
Gulf waters during Wednesday and Thursday. The strong wind flow
and increasing seas may produce coastal flooding at times of high
tide on Wednesday and Thursday... with large breaking wave action
possibly producing additional overwash and flooding in some locations.

At the current time tides are expected to run some 2 to 4 feet above
normal at times of high tide on Wednesday and Thursday. Coastal
residents should review evacuation plans... and be ready to move at
a moment's notice... should action be required.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Watch is issued for the possibility of coastal
flooding.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for further
updates on this developing weather situation.



McMichael

[dixiebreeze]

Most folks didn't really heed the '93 warnings because they thought the tropical season couldn't happen in March.

I well remember those hurricane force winds overnight and flooding almost a mile inland where I live. The surge was less than 2 blocks from our house.

[CrazyC83]

Does this resemble something like February 22, 1998?

Also the most extreme El Nino year in recent memory - 1982 - had two major tornado outbreaks in December (on December 2-3 and on December 23-25).