LATEST FROM JTWC:
WTPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 137.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 137.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.1N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.7N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 22.5N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.9N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 27.8N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 137.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.//
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PROGNOSTIC REASONING
WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF
TY 26W. THE EYE HAS DEGENERATED TO AN EMBEDDED CENTER ON THE MOST
RECENT PGTW DVORAK FIX. THE SYMMETRIC SHAPE THAT TY 26W HAS HAD OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS STARTED TO ELONGATE IN THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-
WEST DIRECTION. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS REFLECT
THIS ELONGATION WITH DRY AIR EVIDENT IN POCKETS IN ALL QUADRANTS OF
THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN AT THE CURRENT
ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS BASED ON DVORAK FIXES
FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES INDICATING 77 KNOTS. BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER
THE PAST THREE HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST THAT
IS SLOWLY BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS
TY 26W MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE TY 26W TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CHINA, WILL TRACK AND
DIG TO THE NORTH OF TY 26W, CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN STR.
THIS WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AND EVENTUALLY
ALLOW TY 26W TO BE CAPTURED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHERE IT
WILL QUICKLY COMPLETE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO EXISTS, IN WHICH THE WEAKENING OF TY 26W OCCURS
MORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, ALLOWING FOR THE REMNANT
LLCC TO BE SHEARED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE LLCC WOULD
THEN BE PICKED UP IN THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND BEGIN TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION TRACKS TO
THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PREDOMINANTLY INDICATING THAT THE
EXTRATROPICAL SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM (WHICH
IS CURRENTLY PROVING TO BE THE CASE, EVIDENCED BY THE PERSISTENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS), AND IN CASE TY 26W SHOULD
RAPIDLY WEAKEN, THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE FEASIBLE.//
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Importantly, that estimate came from a computed T-number of 7.9. When was the last time ADT recorded an 8.0?
